Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[40/70 Benchmark]

Paris island getting smoked about as badly as anyone right now...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

SC going to easily be the biggest hit in the US, not to downplay N FL but... 

 

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Remnants of n eye wall coming in to Paris island....ballsy hurricane.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So much for the ENE turn. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So much for the ENE turn. 

It will eventually come

Gfs ticked a little more northwest with the position of matthew near the coast. The heaviest rain is just offshore.

[snow1]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

What does this show?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea i know, but its not happening as quickly so hilton head on NE is under the gun. 

[OceanStWx]

Charlie South is going to be a mess in a few hours. Not only is the tide starting to come back up, you have the storm surge (which was 6 feet according to the tide gauge a couple hours ago), but you also have the rainfall runoff coming down the rivers with nowhere to drain as the tide/surge come up.

[Typhoon Tip]

looks like it's rolling up the shore ... not in any hurry to come inland -

[JC-CT]

I like how the CMC actually starts to reorganize Matthew at 240 lol

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Charlie South is going to be a mess in a few hours. Not only is the tide starting to come back up, you have the storm surge (which was 6 feet according to the tide gauge a couple hours ago), but you also have the rainfall runoff coming down the rivers with nowhere to drain as the tide/surge come up.

Yeah that area in SC looks like a real mess right now. 

[dendrite]

There was our drought buster.

[jbenedet]

It will be interesting to see what happens with Matthew as he emerges off the Carolina's. If that recurve south west doesn't materialize, I think the Euro loses this contest handily against the GFS. If you look back to the NHC's forecast cone from Tuesday a.m., which was built largely around the GFS, you will see a fantastic forecast more than 4 days out. 

It's a shame we all got thrown off by subsequent runs of all the globals which trended towards the Euro--with the hard left into South Fla., then hard right out to sea-- only to  gradually fade back to the original consensus from earlier in the week.

[OceanStWx]

There is a couple spending the storm at the B&B at Frying Pan Tower (the old C-MAN station) 30+ miles off of NC. For only $600 per person for 3 days/2 nights you too can experience driving rain and 50+ kt gusts.

[OceanStWx]

CHS lucked out. Winds just shifted and drove much of that incoming high tide flood water out.

 

[OceanStWx]

http://explore.org/live-cams/player/frying-pan-cam

Helluva squall just went through the tower area, near white out with the rain. We could see debris from the tower being blown over the side into the water.

Keep in mind this tower is 85 feet off the water, so those waves passing underneath are pretty huge.

[CoastalWx]

The day 4 and 5 forecasts from Brian Tang still show the euro has beating the Gfs by a decent margin although the errors are a bit closer. 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The day 4 and 5 forecasts from Brian Tang still show the euro has beating the Gfs by a decent margin although the errors are a bit closer. 

Yeah much better than earlier this week, but still the GFS has been lagging by almost double the average position error of the Euro. 

[OceanStWx]

dafuq?
 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

There was our drought buster.

 

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

dafuq?
 

Lol, that was exactly what went through my mind.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

dafuq?
 

To be fair I would probably get a burn there today.

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

dafuq?
 

lOl thanks by the way I am now addicted to the shark cam underneath

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

lOl thanks by the way I am now addicted to the shark cam underneath

Ha, that is pretty cool. I wish it was live during the storm to see what it looks like.

So this is just a slightly more industrial version of my overwater bungalow in Bora Bora. 

[Ginx snewx]

May be crude but i am not feeling sorry for people who built and live on barrier beaches, they are barriers for a reason

[Ginx snewx]

Holy crap on the waves out there

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy crap on the waves out there

Given the 21 foot significant wave height an hour or so ago, you can estimate that the largest wave in a set were around 31 or 32 feet, and the theoretical max around 42 feet.

Of course that water is "only" 50ish feet deep, so shoaling could probably account for even larger (and steeper) waves. Hence the name Frying Pan Shoals. 

[Ginx snewx]

51 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Given the 21 foot significant wave height an hour or so ago, you can estimate that the largest wave in a set were around 31 or 32 feet, and the theoretical max around 42 feet.

Of course that water is "only" 50ish feet deep, so shoaling could probably account for even larger (and steeper) waves. Hence the name Frying Pan Shoals. 

sweet Web cam

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting fact gleaned from the latest DISCO: "Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge".

Landfall intensity was category 2 at 105mph.

By show of weenies, who knows which town the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge is????

Bueller.....?

Too late- 

Awendah, SC....immediately next to the the tiny town of McClellanville, SC...made infamous during the landfall of category 4, 140mph Hurricane Huge in 1989.

Just an interesting piece of cane history.