Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[weathafella]

One thing we can be confident about.  Matthew appears to sparing Cape Cod, MA.

[CoastalWx]

This is why we need to be careful about dire, end of the world statements when there are questions about landfall. 

[ForestHillWx]

I can see both sides; erring on the side of caution for a heavily populated area which hasn't really experienced a major cane since Andrew, juxtaposed with the desire to make every event " extreme" from a media standpoint. It definitely increases the ratings. 

I'm curious how the big box stores made out; this quarter got a nice boost. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wild

[CapturedNature]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why we need to be careful about dire, end of the world statements when there are questions about landfall. 

Or at least mention those questions.  I have no problems warning people of what the options are.  I do have a problem with statements that are made out to be factual when in fact they are not.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Could end up actually being worse for SC than FL.

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Or at least mention those questions.  I have no problems warning people of what the options are.  I do have a problem with statements that are made out to be factual when in fact they are not.

Read that statement if you can from Melbourne yesterday. Not even saying potential or chance...all in absolutes. Not good.

[Dan]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Read that statement if you can from Melbourne yesterday. Not even saying potential or chance...all in absolutes. Not good.

Your damned if you do, your damned if you don't.

 

If they said there was a potential that it would hit, people might not leave, then if it did hit, people would say you didn't warn us well enought.  If you say everything is going to be wiped away and it misses you get criticized for the all the urgency.

It's a lose/lose situation.  In the end its better to be safe then sorry, but people get so upset about being inconvenienced, that they will complain about it.

 

[Professional Lurker]

When you have plenty of idiots like the cat/trailer guy, you have to try to inform them. Remember, the public is dumb and doesn't know the difference between a watch or a warning.

I personally don't know if the wording was too strong. It took a mandatory evac order to get my parents out...

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

It's the only way people listen. IMO it was done correctly

[HoarfrostHubb]

What is it missing by? 30 miles?

Def dodging the bullet by a whisker 

A lot of guidance had it ashore.  A lot had it off the coast.   Tough call.   I do see the cry wolf concern

[JC-CT]

It never had a chance

[CoastalWx]

We are in the business of being honest. We should be communicating honestly, the most likely solution, and the possibilities. When everything is always communicated as over the top and much worse than actuality so that people take the warning serious, it will have a reverse effect. That is not how it's done. We already have a good system and people are pretty darn good about taking warnings seriously for the most part. But, if you are communicating these impacts in absolutes to get the idiots out of there....it's going to eventually backfire as boy who cried wolf.  This field is a freaking joke sometimes. 

[CoastalWx]

You actually had people and mets on air saying, "You are going to die." I can't make this stuff up. 

[Hoth]

Anyone heard from ROOSTA? Probably no power...

[Dan]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You actually had people and mets on air saying, "You are going to die." I can't make this stuff up. 

Every major media network had that as their quote on their webpages.  CNN, Fox News, MSNBC.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You actually had people and mets on air saying, "You are going to die." I can't make this stuff up. 

Well, in all fairness just look at the source of that crap.

[Cold Miser]

13 minutes ago, Dan said:

Your damned if you do, your damned if you don't.

 

If they said there was a potential that it would hit, people might not leave, then if it did hit, people would say you didn't warn us well enought.  If you say everything is going to be wiped away and it misses you get criticized for the all the urgency.

It's a lose/lose situation.  In the end its better to be safe then sorry, but people get so upset about being inconvenienced, that they will complain about it.

 

I wish I knew the answer to this.  Forecasting is just that...a "Forecast".  There are no, and never will be absolutes with such a profession.  It does not work that way. Unfortunately people rely too much on the forecasters (and these days the hype-casters) and dismiss their own common sense sometimes. But, should they, or should they not rely on what they see or hear?  Does it mean that you should evacuate every time there is a projected (3 days out) hurricane to hit within 50 miles of your location?  ...Maybe. I know a guy who just moved to Key West 2 weeks ago.  This past week he bolted out of there, and back to New Jersey to "ride it out" out of fear.  Was that a logical or rational thing to do?  Probably not, but he played it ultra safe due to what he saw through forecasting and such a few days before (although I don't think the keys were ever in the range for too long so I think he got a bit too excited too soon).

I think people need to be educated on what is happening, but also educated before hand on what to expect, and how calmly sift through the hype and understand even a small bit the meteorology of it all.  I don't think it takes much for people to understand basics, and some aspects of tracking, even for the short term. ....But then again, the general public are sheep so maybe expecting them to move beyond the hype-casting is too much to ask.

...Since winter weather will be upon us sooner than later these same discussions of forecasting, blaming, and expectations will be brought to the table like they are every year. 

[dendrite]

To be fair we are all going to die someday.

But yeah, I think it's good to give a range of possibilities considering the mesoscale aspect of the eyewall. Give your most likely outcome, but stress the seriousness of the high end impact a landfall would have. Let people make their own decisions. There will always be the Darwin winners that want to stay through even a Camille. 

[Dan]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

I wish I knew the answer to this.  Forecasting is just that...a "Forecast".  There are no, and never will be absolutes with such a profession.  It does not work that way. Unfortunately people rely too much on the forecasters (and these days the hype-casters) and dismiss their own common sense sometimes. But, should they, or should they not rely on what they see or hear?  Does it mean that you should evacuate every time there is a projected (3 days out) hurricane to hit within 50 miles of your location?  ...Maybe. I know a guy who just moved to Key West 2 weeks ago.  This past week he bolted out of there, and back to New Jersey to "ride it out" out of fear.  Was that a logical or rational thing to do?  Probably not, but he played it ultra safe due to what he saw through forecasting and such a few days before (although I don't think the keys were ever in the range for too long so I think he got a bit too excited too soon).

I think people need to be educated on what is happening, but also educated before hand on what to expect, and how calmly sift through the hype and understand even a small bit the meteorology of it all.  I don't think it takes much for people to understand basics, and some aspects of tracking, even for the short term. ....But then again, the general public are sheep so maybe expecting them to move beyond the hype-casting is too much to ask.

...Since winter weather will be upon us sooner than later these same discussions of forecasting, blaming, and expectations will be brought to the table like they are every year. 

I get your point.  I think the problem is people are always running around so much, they don't take the time to educate themselves and dig through it.  Everything is as the though of their fingers, that that's all they know.  People hate to be inconvenienced.  They don't want to lose a second of their precious time.

 

Look at the snowstorms around here, if the mets are off and they get more/less snow than was predicted they complain.  If it misses they complain.  All you ever hear when it comes to mets.  Is that they get paid to be wrong 95% of the time.  Every missed storm, thats what you here.  I am not even a met and it pisses me off when people say that, because they don't understand how complicated this field really is.

 

Not making excuses for people, but this is the new norm now. Media will hype events days before it happens and when it doesn't happen the same media and in turn average joes b**ch about it.

[ORH_wxman]

The eastward nudge was becoming more noticeable when the eye went over Grand Bahama. 

[Dan]

This storm is so close to being so much worse for the coast.  Amazing how close to the coast it is without being on the coast.  

 

[JC-CT]

You actually had people and mets on air saying, "You are going to die." I can't make this stuff up. 

Don't forget about your kids

[Master of Disaster]

The elected mayors and governors did an outstanding job with this in my opinion. While it's easy to Monday morning quarterback everything I will tell you that Katrina had a wide ranging impact on evacuations. No one wants to be Ray Nagan trying to evacuate a million residents 24 hours before a storm makes landfall and have that end in the loss of over 1600 residents. In addition, the Meteorologist in Charge of the New Orleans National Weather Service Office at the time was widely praised for his super catastrophic warning to the public prior to landfall. In fact, I am pretty sure he won a few awards for it. In many cases, super graphic warnings are what is needed to grab attention and in several cases, such warnings are later adopted into standard operating procedure for the organization. The 1999 "Tornado Emergency" for Moore and Newcastle Oklahoma come to mind as examples. There you had an employee who felt he needed to do something more than just release a standard tornado warning. He needed a hook to grab attention. And it worked. From an emergency manager perspective, one super annoying issue with storms and public perception is unless the storm effects you or your family at the highest level advertised in the warning, it will be considered a false alarm. Meanwhile, the neighbor two blocks away lost there home and everything in it but because it wasn't you or your house, then it was an over exaggeration.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Don't forget about your kids

 

Yes, you're kids will die, and the decision to stay will be your last decision. Don't forget the bimbo on the weather channel saying the kids in Haiti are so poor, that they eat trees for food. This field is a joke.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said:

The elected mayors and governors did an outstanding job with this in my opinion. While it's easy to Monday morning quarterback everything I will tell you that Katrina had a wide ranging impact on evacuations. No one wants to be Ray Nagan trying to evacuate a million residents 24 hours before a storm makes landfall and have that end in the loss of over 1600 residents. In addition, the Meteorologist in Charge of the New Orleans National Weather Service Office at the time was widely praised for his super catastrophic warning to the public prior to landfall. In fact, I am pretty sure he won a few awards for it. In many cases, super graphic warnings are what is needed to grab attention and in several cases, such warnings are later adopted into standard operating procedure for the organization. The 1999 "Tornado Emergency" for Moore and Newcastle Oklahoma come to mind as examples. There you had an employee who felt he needed to do something more than just release a standard tornado warning. He needed a hook to grab attention. And it worked. From an emergency manager perspective, one super annoying issue with storms and public perception is unless the storm effects you or your family at the highest level advertised in the warning, it will be considered a false alarm. Meanwhile, the neighbor two blocks away lost there home and everything in it but because it wasn't you or your house, then it was an over exaggeration.

There is no Monday morning QB. The issues of track were always there and even the global models which brought the eye ashore were never fully inland to give the full brunt of surge. The tropical models over last 36 hrs were spot on.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no Monday morning QB. The issues of track were always there and even the global models which brought the eye ashore were never fully inland to give the full brunt of surge. The tropical models over last 36 hrs were spot on.

They were consistently showing Matthew remaining offshore for the last day or two of runs, Some need to go back and trust there resources that they have at hand instead of getting sucked in by the hype

[Skivt2]

People love to complain and they will complain about anything and everything.  It's not just weather.  Misery loves company.  The weather is the topic people bring up when they don't know what to say to each other but need to be cordial.  Pretty much complaining about weather is probably the most common and easiest topic to bring up with a stranger since it's seen as not political and easy for everyone to agree wish.  I think Mets and weather buffs just need to do their best to tune it out and be as honest as possible.

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why we need to be careful about dire, end of the world statements when there are questions about landfall. 

 

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You actually had people and mets on air saying, "You are going to die." I can't make this stuff up. 

Yeah, I would really prefer if our best method to motivate people could stop being "you're going to die!"

It may be effective the first time someone hears it, but the second time you get the cat guy who calls us a bunch of blowhards. 

There is no one size fits all approach. Everyone has their own thresholds for evacuation or shelter in place. We just need to provide the best information possible, educate the public on potential outcomes, and let them decide for themselves. I'm guessing at this point we've done a very poor job of explaining what a reasonable worst case scenario (like all NHC forecasts) actually is.

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

The elected mayors and governors did an outstanding job with this in my opinion. While it's easy to Monday morning quarterback everything I will tell you that Katrina had a wide ranging impact on evacuations. No one wants to be Ray Nagan trying to evacuate a million residents 24 hours before a storm makes landfall and have that end in the loss of over 1600 residents. In addition, the Meteorologist in Charge of the New Orleans National Weather Service Office at the time was widely praised for his super catastrophic warning to the public prior to landfall. In fact, I am pretty sure he won a few awards for it. In many cases, super graphic warnings are what is needed to grab attention and in several cases, such warnings are later adopted into standard operating procedure for the organization. The 1999 "Tornado Emergency" for Moore and Newcastle Oklahoma come to mind as examples. There you had an employee who felt he needed to do something more than just release a standard tornado warning. He needed a hook to grab attention. And it worked. From an emergency manager perspective, one super annoying issue with storms and public perception is unless the storm effects you or your family at the highest level advertised in the warning, it will be considered a false alarm. Meanwhile, the neighbor two blocks away lost there home and everything in it but because it wasn't you or your house, then it was an over exaggeration.

New Orleans was right for the wrong reasons. Wasn't the catastrophic wording for winds? Everyone media person was saying NBD immediately after the winds let up...then the flood news came.

 I don't think E FL is below sea level either.