Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, j24vt said:

That is the part that scares me.  Not really interested in seeing how well the post Irene culvert upgrade works

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No it has the pressure too high. Earl barker and other sites are showing the mslp more truthfully. Many other sites  are .25 degree as well, but the data is still degraded.

We have it...do you have access?

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/?&model=gfshires&run_time=18z&param=troppres&map=US&run_hour=96

[dendrite]

I would like a foot of rain. I want bridges washed out DIT style. Great freshets scurrying off with thy knickers.

[78Blizzard]

18Z HWRF has 916 mb @ 06z Tuesday with est 136 kt winds.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100318&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=252

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We have it...do you have access?

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/?&model=gfshires&run_time=18z&param=troppres&map=US&run_hour=96

Oh that's cool. I don't have the model package. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I would like a foot of rain. I want bridges washed out DIT style. Great freshets scurrying off with thy knickers.

Yeah, I could go for some floods.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I just hope it rains... we need it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

These systems are more dangerous once completing ERCs because they grow in size.

[MarkO]

Just looking at the topo of southwest Haiti. Some elevation down there. Some peaks up in the 5-7000' range and Matthew is already within 150 miles. I can only imagine the flooding.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I can see that Matthew has intensified.

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Just looking at the topo of southwest Haiti. Some elevation down there. Some peaks up in the 5-7000' range and Matthew is already within 150 miles. I can only imagine the flooding.

Somebody down there will see 30-35 inches of rain from this. All that orographic lift and slow movement will cause a deluge. 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I could go for some floods.

I won't be satisfied until the national guard is deployed and people are navigating the square on boats again. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I'm extremely worried about Haiti.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

I won't be satisfied until the national guard is deployed and people are navigating the square on boats again. 

Doesn't that happen with routine thunderstorms there?

[ROOSTA]

9 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm extremely worried about Haiti.

"THAT'S THE WAY GOD PLANNED IT"

Buddy Preston

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm extremely worried about Haiti.

It is going to be catastrophic for them

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Well Don, it is wrong.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Doesn't that happen with routine thunderstorms there?

 I've actually probably got a chart somewhere that plots how much rain it takes in various periods of time to shut down parts of town. But yeah, a particularly strong summer downpour when the streams aren't too low is often enough to prompt a few road closures. The better events where people need to be water rescued and schools need to be closed are less common, though. 

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

 I've actually probably got a chart somewhere that plots how much rain it takes in various periods of time to shut down parts of town. But yeah, a particularly strong summer downpour when the streams aren't too low is often enough to prompt a few road closures. 

I'd guess it's probably around 4" in 24 hours.

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm extremely worried about Haiti.

Rightfully so.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Just now, MarkO said:

I'd guess it's probably around 4" in 24 hours.

4" in 24 hours should be enough to cause serious travel issues and close schools here. I recall one year where a cutoff low gave us ~6-7" in a 5 day period and it made parts of downtown inaccessible for a day or two. I think that was the only time that I ever had a track meet canceled. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

HPC 7day QPF data shows 2-2.5" of rain even for me on Cape Cod

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Which probably means they think the storm is going over Cape Cod, MA.

[MarkO]

12 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

4" in 24 hours should be enough to cause serious travel issues and close schools here. I recall one year where a cutoff low gave us ~6-7" in a 5 day period and it made parts of downtown inaccessible for a day or two. I think that was the only time that I ever had a track meet canceled. 

The box culvert that runs under Central Street is waaaaay undersized. 3 or 4 inches of rain and that stream begins to back up the downtown area. I on.ly said 4 because it's been so dry.

[ROOSTA]

59 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Well Don, it is wrong.

I think that's what I stated. Any inference otherwise...different generation I guess.

11pm out and me not liking. Cone is now encompassing 3/4 of the state, notched-up on maybe having to stock-up tomorrow. CAT1 sure, that would be kind of fun. CAT2 would honestly like to have an eye pass overhead. CAT3 and higher I prefer to pass on IMBY.  Steve stated oh so well give me a gentle 4' blizzard anyday and twice on Sunday. 

[Ginx snewx]

This is the 0Z GFS sounding for JENSEN BEACH FL in the eyewall 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looking like a SC landfall

 

[TalcottWx]

Parents are discussing an evacuation of Fort Lauderdale. I tried to plead with them to wait until tomorrow to make a decision. My Dad just bought property in Broward. Not best start.

[40/70 Benchmark]

00z GFS is Hugo

[ROOSTA]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is the 0Z GFS sounding for JENSEN BEACH FL in the eyewall 

 

That's probably the worse angle for LF and then tracking NNW. Resulting in hurricane force winds for a majority of the state. The weenie in me (on my left shoulder) f it bring it on.