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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not gonna happen. Andrew-sequel damage that is. The total cost could rival it if it takes the perfect track with the eyewall hugging the coastline for 300 miles but it would be lesser damage spread out over a larger area that makes the $$ similar....that and we also have a ton more wealth to damage in the first place versus 1992. Coastal development was crazy in the past two decades. 

Unlikely, but I wouldn't speak in absolutes.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well how do they know 130 at landfall?   If the eye is tightening and the storm strengthens a bit it could be stronger.  Also, storm surge could be a huge issue on that coast.  This could destroy structures if the wind doesn't.  So in the end the damage could be worse, and quite possibly a lot more spread out if it goes up the coast.  Looks to me like it has wobbled west a bit.

So then using Andrew is a terrible analog if you are only going by dollar amounts. The public doesn't think that. They hear Andrew and think of entire towns decimated. That is a classic, idiotic analog storm that reporters love to use. Everything is always fear and worst ever. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unlikely, but I wouldn't speak in absolutes.

Yeah dangerous to speak in absolutes. It could somehow make a left turn and simultaneously keep strengthening and hit as a strong cat 4 or cat 5...never say never...but the chances are quite slim. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

So then using Andrew is a terrible analog is you are only going by dollar amounts. The public doesn't think that. They hear Andrew and think of entire towns decimated. That is a classic, idiotic analog storm that reporters love to use. Everything is always fear and worst ever. 

along the coast from Melbourne to Daytona could be devastated by a 7-11 ft surge.  It is unprecedented in a century I think.  There are lots of housed and business right on the beach.  Saying "Andrew" gets people's attention in a situation that could be as severe in terms of loss of life and property.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So then using Andrew is a terrible analog if you are only going by dollar amounts. The public doesn't think that. They hear Andrew and think of entire towns decimated. That is a classic, idiotic analog storm that reporters love to use. Everything is always fear and worst ever. 

Dollar amounts are only interesting for insurance companies. They are a useless metric to measure the relative strength of a storm. If the 1938 hurricane happened in 2016, the $$ damage would be orders of magnitude higher, even adjusting for inflation due to what Eastern Long Island and southern RI/MA/CT look like now versus then. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

along the coast from Melbourne to Daytona could be devastated by a 7-11 ft surge.  It is unprecedented in a century I think.  There are lots of housed and business right on the beach.  Saying "Andrew" gets people's attention in a situation that could be as severe in terms of loss of life and property.

Always calling for worst ever is not the way to go. It will eventually numb people into a false sense of "they say it will always be bad...I'm not leaving."  And then when another Andrew really hits, that's when the sh*t hits the fan.  Look, I know they want people out...but it's a slippery slope to always have these fearful impact statements because if people don't experience it, they fall into a false sense of security. Ask Ryan about the NHC "Now is the time to hide from the wind" nonsense for Hermine that came out.  You really have to be careful how you communicate this.  I am not poo-pooing it, I am stating the issues of always going for the scare tactics to make people take the warnings seriously. It will backfire.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dollar amounts are only interesting for insurance companies. They are a useless metric to measure the relative strength of a storm. If the 1938 hurricane happened in 2016, the $$ damage would be orders of magnitude higher, even adjusting for inflation due to what Eastern Long Island and southern RI/MA/CT look like now versus then. 

Right. Water in a house can pretty much total it even if it's in tact.  Coastal real estate is a fortune these days. Billions dollar events are easily attainable.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now the issue to watch, is if the eye does have a ERC and a larger one. That could present problems. I'm not arguing dollar amounts, but the destruction Andrew brought seems unlikely to duplicate. 

It think it does more damage if it doesn't complete an ERC. Ike is a better analog. Huge eye with massive storm surge over a greater area. I have a feeling that little eye will never make landfall

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

In respect to hype, no disrespect to fellow Floridians. There are some "real slow" people on the intake dept.. elevator not going to top floor material. It's the hype and circus show that could save lives, And quiet frankly the only way to get through to some. Saving just one indecisive person, I say well deserved.
Squall just to my S has some bite can tell by the continuous bark of thunder.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It think it does more damage if it doesn't complete an ERC. Ike is a better analog. Huge eye with massive storm surge over a greater area. I have a feeling that little eye will never make landfall

Ike slammed ashore at a 90 degree angle. The surge won't be as bad if it scrapes the coast. If it chugged WNW, than  it would definitely be a worst case surge event. It's still bad if it moves up the coast, but having a hurricane slam inland at a 90 degree angle is like putting your hand in water and then shoving it forward.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

In respect to hype, no disrespect to fellow Floridians. There are some "real slow" people on the intake dept.. elevator not going to top floor material. It's the hype and circus show that could save lives, And quiet frankly the only way to get through to some. Saving just one indecisive person, I say well deserved.
Squall just to my S has some bite can tell by the continuous bark of thunder.

Two way street though. Like Scott said, will this end up causing people not to leave in the next Andrew or Charley or 1926 storm? If that's the case, then you might have cost lives. 

Theres obviously a fine line. You need to warn the public of the danger. But at the same time, you need to be careful not to overstate it and try to really communicate that the immediate shoreline in the lowest areas are the riskiest place. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ike slammed ashore at a 90 degree angle. The surge won't be as bad if it scrapes the coast. If it chugged WNW, than  it would definitely be a worst case surge event. It's still bad if it moves up the coast, but having a hurricane slam inland at a 90 degree angle is like putting your hand in water and then shoving it forward.

True about the trajectory. I was just making the case that a larger eye wall will be more damaging simply because it has a better chance of hitting land and bring the surge with it

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted
In respect to hype, no disrespect to fellow Floridians. There are some "real slow" people on the intake dept.. elevator not going to top floor material. It's the hype and circus show that could save lives, And quiet frankly the only way to get through to some. Saving just one indecisive person, I say well deserved.
Squall just to my S has some bite can tell by the continuous bark of thunder.


Oh yeah... I've seen some real "waterboy" type people in florida.

"Mamma says hurricanes are angry because they only have one eye."

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Two way street though. Like Scott said, will this end up causing people not to leave in the next Andrew or Charley or 1926 storm? If that's the case, then you might have cost lives. 

Theres obviously a fine line. You need to warn the public of the danger. But at the same time, you need to be careful not to overstate it and try to really communicate that the immediate shoreline in the lowest areas are the riskiest place. 

I get it. Coming from two highly respected METS. Can only deal with the present and ultimately it comes down to a personal decision. Come next time JQ Public will be subjected to the same. Until Matthew has dissipated and this is the only thing I question. Still could be bad, real bad. I'd be the first to admit my bias in going big compared to reality. Admittedly lack of knowledge. As a professional I would expect nothing less. I applaude every MET who frequents this forum in keeping it real.     

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Just finished watching the evening National News.  Everything seems to be "breaking" news.  Even the anchors voices are raised and alarming.  Reporters holding earpieces like the wind is roaring when its just a breeze.  Even the one report where it was barely raining but the camera lens was not cleaned off to make it look like conditions are worse.  It really just follows a whole trend in our country that seems to make weather events larger than they are.  Maybe I'm just getting cynical.  Guess I'm getting off topic but when the next "Andrew" hits the level of hysteria can not go much higher.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted

Andrew hit south of Miami, where there was little high end development. If Matthew breaches the intercoastal, I believe it will surpass Andrew in at least current dollars. I remember an actuary friend sent me a model of what Katrina would do if it hit at cat 4/5. Of course I was ridiculed... until the levees finally breached.

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