Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy fuk https://www.dvidshub.net/video/486466/coast-guard-air-station-miami-hc-144-ocean-sentry-airplane-crew-conducts-first-post-storm-damage-assessment-flights

Wow at some of that...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Dan said:

 

Nice.

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The real winds are in the eyewall and the western eyewall is weaker. If that misses or even offshore by only 5 or 10 miles...means everything. It's a real tough call given the coastline orientation and angle of approach. If anything it seems to be just a hair east of consensus so far...but it doesn't mean it will stay that way. A wobble could bring the eye right onshore too.  At this stage though, better be safer than sorry, so I would certainly take the warnings seriously. I'm just not sure of Katrina comparison given the uncertainties. 

If it comes bodily inland it may rival it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm going to puke if this remains offshore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It may weaken substantially before coming in, too.

I wish it would jog westerly for a while...its going to weaken soon.

[ROOSTA]

Winds just off the deck 165mph. per recon via main tropic thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looking at SAT, I think FL has dodged a relative bullet.

Looks peaked and like it will parallel the coast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to puke if this remains offshore.

It could remain just offshore and still do massive damage

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

Winds just off the deck 165mph. per recon via main tropic thread.

Recon, radar, or dropsonde?

[ROOSTA]

3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Winds just off the deck 165mph. per recon via main tropic thread.

 

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Recon, radar, or dropsonde?

RECON

[MarkO]

Florida coast is going to get pummeled! I'm thinking similar $$ to Andrew. If water breaches the intercoastal, could be similar to Katrina

[CoastalWx]

Looking at radar, it's a ore left of the previous course I'd say. But that's my earlier point Ray. It's not a certain lock that it comes ashore and then rakes the coastline causing all that damage. I mean maybe, but the real winds are in that eyewall and it would have to come at least partially onshore. It still easily could from the space coast and points north, so this is the area to watch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looking at radar, it's a ore left of the previous course I'd say. But that's my earlier point Ray. It's not a certain lock that it comes ashore and then rakes the coastline causing all that damage. I mean maybe, but the real winds are in that eyewall and it would have to come at least partially onshore. It still easily could from the space coast and points north, so this is the area to watch.

We aren't disagreeing about anything.

IF it came bodily onshore sooner rather than later, we could see Katrina like numbers.....but the longer it parallels the coast, the more it will have time to weaken.

[CoastalWx]

By the way, the inner eyewall has been in beast mode all day. One of the more impressive ones you will ever see around thse parts. Tons of LTG too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The nw quad is struggling some....but not sure I see shear, Will.

[CoastalWx]

The hype down in FL is out of control. I talked with my Uncle who lives in Melbourne, and they are saying it could be like Andrew. Um, no. This is all the crap and circus that comes with these things. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

By the way, the inner eyewall has been in beast mode all day. One of the more impressive ones you will ever see around thse parts. Tons of LTG too.

How much time you think we have until the outter eye wall pisses in the koolaid?

7-12 hours?

[CoastalWx]

There maybe is a bit of shear, but I see good outflow. It only takes 15kts to sometimes affect these things. The whole shear in Bahamas from the NHC was probably GFS based stuff that overrated it.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How much time you think we have until the otter eye wall pisses in the koolaid?

7-12 hours?

It looks like the outer eyewall is conceding a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The hype down in FL is out of control. I talked with my Uncle who lives in Melbourne, and they are saying it could be like Andrew. Um, no. This is all the crap and circus that comes with these things. 

It if it kept intensifying and came bodily in, but doesn't look like it will intensify too much more.

Damage could exceed Andrew...

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS is just offshore.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The nw quad is struggling some....but not sure I see shear, Will.

 

It's def encountering more shear as it heads north...doesn't have to mean the eye collapses abruptly, but it's now around 20 knots of shear, if it gets to 25-30 then you'll prob start seeing structural degradation.

 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The hype down in FL is out of control. I talked with my Uncle who lives in Melbourne, and they are saying it could be like Andrew. Um, no. This is all the crap and circus that comes with these things. 

And so there is no way to be right unless this comes in like Andrew. Prepare for "they blew it out of proportion" stories bashing local mets, NHC, etc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS is just offshore.

No surprise.

Just noted I think FL dodged a bullet.

 

[CoastalWx]

That jet to the north helps evacuate it too. It's a gamble sometimes.

[ROOSTA]

I'm not letting my guard down until the center passes my LAT. Still in the crosshair. On/off (to be or not to be) no matter it's still going to be a good blow here.

Figure I only have a handful of hours left with power. A collective sigh desends across the forum, I know...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

And so there is no way to be right unless this comes in like Andrew. Prepare for "they blew it out of proportion" stories bashing local mets, NHC, etc.

I have no idea where that came from. But, that is a horrible comparison. Andrew was a 20 mile wide EF4 across FL.

[OceanStWx]

-88C in the northern eyewall now.

[CoastalWx]

The thing is pulling elements from the outer eyewall inward. Fascinating.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

-88C in the northern eyewall now.

Out out beast mode eyewall.

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

 

RECON

Lol.  I must be tired...