Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The more phased solutions have the mtn top snow. I'd root for that. 

It's just so far out there.  Can't even look at it till its near the Carolinas or something.  I'm sort of with Dendrite and Will, give it another 3-5 days and see where we are at.

Of course a direct New England hit would be awesome, but in the modeling world we are still *so* far away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The more phased solutions have the mtn top snow. I'd root for that. 

Yes......an inch or two at East Bearballs lake would certainly cure what meteorologically ales me...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's just so far out there.  Can't even look at it till its near the Carolinas or something.  I'm sort of with Dendrite and Will, give it another 3-5 days and see where we are at.

Of course a direct New England hit would be awesome, but in the modeling world we are still *so* far away.  

Don't look for four or five days....ok lets track the SAI that has zero relevance for a month, instead.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes......an inch or two at east Bearballs lake would certainly cure what meteorologically ales me...

That sounds like the most excitement you'd get from a fully phased solution.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

00z back to all over the place N of the Carolinas.  FL now more in play too.

 

[Bostonseminole]

too bad it's strengthening right before Haiti.. sucks for them.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is anyone assuming Euro is right? It had this in the GOM at one point 

I believe the Euro is handling speed better and has had the shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti for a while. The western moves are very troubling for Florida, after that a recurve hybrid Nor'easter or extensive pre rains seem more likely that a Hurricane

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't look for four or five days....ok lets track the SAI that has zero relevance for a month, instead.

I prefer tracking dews at the mulch piles.  That's where it's at.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

That sounds like the most excitement you'd get from a fully phased solution.  

No, I'd garner a great deal of excitement from having every street sign and tree in the Carolinas blown away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have no issue with a se Landfall, followed by a nor easter.....great compromise.

[Ginx snewx]

Mods should lock the other thread just sayin

934 Jerry and ERC complete 5 is a distinct possibility. Now that is moved past its up welled water it's over high octane again

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I'd garner a great deal of excitement from having every street sign and tree in the Carolinas blown away.

Sarcasm, of course a fully phased solution would be the most interesting.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Haiti is in deep deep doo doo

[TalcottWx]

Bahamas are in trouble too. Big surge. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haiti is in deep deep doo doo

Mudslides and flooding are going to be horrific.  No place to go. Deforestation will cause it to be worse.  

[Hoth]

New eye wall looking nice. Not closed on the south side yet, but quite robust on the northern periphery.

[78Blizzard]

Is the data input received by the hurricane models the same as, or different, from the data received by the global models?

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's just so far out there.  Can't even look at it till its near the Carolinas or something.  I'm sort of with Dendrite and Will, give it another 3-5 days and see where we are at.

Of course a direct New England hit would be awesome, but in the modeling world we are still *so* far away.

First no it's definitely now the time to watch. Second a direct hit isn't awesome. I could see a deal where the moisture is stripped north into New England and the main naked type swirl is forced out south of us. Drought busting rains seem likely

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's just so far out there.  Can't even look at it till its near the Carolinas or something.  I'm sort of with Dendrite and Will, give it another 3-5 days and see where we are at.

Of course a direct New England hit would be awesome, but in the modeling world we are still *so* far away.

I agree. I wish I could ignore it. But I can't. Hysteria started days ago. 

[CoastalWx]

Anybody have links to proper Gfs resolution and not some 1 degree plot from other free sites? I know of earl barker. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First no it's definitely now the time to watch. Second a direct hit isn't awesome. I could see a deal where the moisture is stripped north into New England and the main naked type swirl is forced out south of us. Drought busting rains seem likely

Seems to be a prime set up for PRE rains as the approaching trough and frontal zone causes that area of deformation which mixes with the rich tropical moisture to cause a very heavy rain band stretching SE to NW somewhere in the Northeast.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. I wish I could ignore it. But I can't. Hysteria started days ago. 

For anybody interested in wx this storm is really really a case study, already setting duration records. As far as New England goes we are quickly approaching the time of interest. 

[Hoth]

Dropsonde in NW eyeball found 191mph wind at 800 feet. Just wow...

[Ginx snewx]

Geez Cat 5 on Sat estimates. ERC right before Haiti yikes

[TalcottWx]

That's becoming buzzsaw- cat 5 at 11pm?

[Hoth]

Eye is closed.

[Dan]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anybody have links to proper Gfs resolution and not some 1 degree plot from other free sites? I know of earl barker. 

 

Are you looking for something like this:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model#

 

I am pretty sure this is the 1/4 degree GFS...Only the 1/4 degree GFS has hourly ouput.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geez Cat 5 on Sat estimates. ERC right before Haiti yikes

Could be chalking up another one for James who said cat 5 before 11am tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Dan said:

 

Are you looking for something like this:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model#

 

I am pretty sure this is the 1/4 degree GFS...Only the 1/4 degree GFS has hourly ouput.

No it has the pressure too high. Earl barker and other sites are showing the mslp more truthfully. Many other sites  are .25 degree as well, but the data is still degraded.

[j24vt]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seems to be a prime set up for PRE rains as the approaching trough and frontal zone causes that area of deformation which mixes with the rich tropical moisture to cause a very heavy rain band stretching SE to NW somewhere in the Northeast.  

That is the part that scares me.  Not really interested in seeing how well the post Irene culvert upgrade works