Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[JC-CT]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Also a true point here.

You can see the HWRF and GFDL tend to do better than the globals when it comes to intensity. And as a result the NHC forecast gets worse with time as they begin to include more global data in the intensity blend.

Is that for the basin in general, or just for tropical cyclones? If the latter, that wouldn't help for all the times the hurricane models spin up erroneous cyclones.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Plenty of deep, warm water ahead of it though (TC heat potential below). It will get there, but Cuba is definitely affecting the circulation.

nice convective burst right now

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Is that for the basin in general, or just for tropical cyclones? If the latter, that wouldn't help for all the times the hurricane models spin up erroneous cyclones.

I think it's for a track-able feature (i.e. an INVEST). 

We more or less have the same problems we've always had. We're better at track than intensity, and though track is improving we aren't particularly good with that beyond 3 or 4 days either. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

nice convective burst right now

Very cold cloud tops in the NE quad now.

[Typhoon Tip]

this is f cool!

 

[bobbutts]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is f cool!

 

is that photographer location the same guy who captured the images of sprites?  Neat stuff  http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/10/03/sprites-hurricane-matthew/91474952/

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro Don! Incoming!

 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

is that photographer location the same guy who captured the images of sprites?  Neat stuff  http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/10/03/sprites-hurricane-matthew/91474952/

I will say, sprites may have been the weeniest thing I've ever gone triple bunner for. I saw them once in Iowa, and still am pissed that my camera wasn't ready to go.

[78Blizzard]

I think this may come north this run.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I think this may come north this run.

Still no where near the NE.  12z Sun sitting off NC coast.

[78Blizzard]

Very similar to 12z Monday run at 12z Sun.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro Don! Incoming!

 

wind gust in the upper 80's near 95 for Don per the .1 Euro

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Very similar to 12z Monday run at 12z Sun.

So much for that, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like we now have a consensus for the loop.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like we now have a consensus for the loop.

But it's slowly weakening as it loops.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like Matthew ate Nicole on the 12z Euro.

[Ginx snewx]

So Donnie, you wanted to retire to Florida and see a cane, well here ya go my good friend. Godspeed, enjoy, hope the new pool doesn't get too much debris.

[78Blizzard]

This run it gets 200 mi further NE before beginning the loop.  Tough to buy that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Wish we were Don

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

where are seeing a loop so far?

Yeah, it's just pivoting/rotating back SE, waaaay offshore though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Goes nowhere between 12z Tues/Wed. 1/2 way between Bahamas/Bermuda.

[Ginx snewx]

already publicly distributed, but there ya go Mr Windcredible with the 150 at the coast and 100 inland

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

already publicly distributed, but there ya go Mr Windcredible with the 150 at the coast and 100 inland

Based on that, we should see pretty rapid strengthening from this point forward.

[SouthCoastMA]

The JMA must have run on data from 36 hours ago. Looks euro like at day 3 then does the JMA thing afterwards

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Based on that, we should see pretty rapid strengthening from this point forward.

Looks like we are seeing that already

[OceanStWx]

Pixel of -86C in the NE quad now. CDO is starting to look better on IR.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Pixel of -86C in the NE quad now. CDO is starting to look better on IR.

Yes....

[TalcottWx]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So Donnie, you wanted to retire to Florida and see a cane, well here ya go my good friend. Godspeed, enjoy, hope the new pool doesn't get too much debris.

Especially considering everything a few years back before he moved. Don's a good guy. Always been a great poster too. 

Hope he stays safe as possible during any impacts.

[ROOSTA]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea..we'll find out.

I'm am not saying anyone is wrong....just not locking in a system much stronger than it is now.

Nor did I question, just from a visual perspective. You might be right.
Wow the line to fill the gas tank was around the corner down the street, think I might have even seen Willy.
No bread, no milk but I did find TP, oh what a relief it is. Hot and humid outside, cobalt blue skies dotted by Cb towers. The air just has that feel to it. 

[TalcottWx]

Storm looks like it's about to significantly strengthen in the next 12 hours. Satellite is juicy.