Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I thought 1 tiny section was over the top, why would 100 mph gusts equate to 150 on the coast especially if Orlando is in the eyewall . You are grasping for tiny straws

I always get confused and think your sig is part of your post. lol

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always get confused and think your sig is part of your post. lol

i have sigs turned off and have forgotten what it is, let me look

 

Really ramping up now, going to explode in diameter too

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have a feeling Matthew may be skunked after Cuba, and not change very much in intensity prior to any interaction with Florida. Once they are disrupted enough to have swaths of warmer cloud tops within the CDO, the structure often never quite rejuvenates entirely...

Mountains ddi a job on it.

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always get confused and think your sig is part of your post. lol

Oh the subtleties of bustin em.

 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I thought 1 tiny section was over the top, why would 100 mph gusts equate to 150 on the coast especially if Orlando is in the eyewall . You are grasping for tiny straws

I'm not trying to be a dick about it. I just think if the storm is strong enough to produce 100 mph gusts in Orlando then logically it's going to be much worse along the coast which would have to bear the brunt of the typically more powerful NE quadrant. Yeah you got me...I just threw out 150 mph without any real backing...but I don't think roof collapse on older homes/structures is out of the realm of possibility in that scenario. That's just my 2 cents...you are free to disagree.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a feeling Matthew may be skunked after Cuba, and not change very much in intensity prior to any interaction with Florida. Once they are disrupted enough to have swaths of warmer cloud tops within the CDO, the structure often never quite rejuvenates entirely...

Mountains ddi a job on it.

um 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Love how Matthew just sort of rotates down near the Yucatan and rots after FL LF on the GFS...

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Oh the subtleties of bustin em.

 

how far from the East coast are you as the crow flies

[40/70 Benchmark]

I see that, Steve.....the NW quad is still a mess.

[metagraphica]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see that, Steve.....the NW quad is still a mess.

I think once it gets a little more distance from the mountains in Cuba it will definitely re-strengthen.  It's core is still intact and overall circulation look good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

CMC nails Bermuda twice after interaction with the SE

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I'm not trying to be a dick about it. I just think if the storm is strong enough to produce 100 mph gusts in Orlando then logically it's going to be much worse along the coast which would have to bear the brunt of the typically more powerful NE quadrant. Yeah you got me...I just threw out 150 mph without any real backing...but I don't think roof collapse on older homes/structures is out of the realm of possibility in that scenario. That's just my 2 cents...you are free to disagree.

No I actually agree with you. They did have Jeanne, also wall failures was the part I was keying on but none the less its important to stress the seriousness especially in that NE quad on the coast if it moves bodily ashore.

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

how far from the East coast are you as the crow flies

37 miles due W of Daytona. Starting to get a little anxious and exited which is a contradiction. A very nervous awareness is a better description of feelings.  

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

37 miles due W of Daytona. Starting to get a little anxious and exited which is a contradiction. A very nervous awareness is a better description of feelings.  

I see sustained 53 gusting to 87 for your area on the GFS 

[bobbutts]

The real danger is flying debris in an inland wind event > 100mph.  You do not want to be downwind from lots of trees or a trailer park or anything else that might come loose.  Stick built homes are sketchy too.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

I think once it gets a little more distance from the mountains in Cuba it will definitely re-strengthen.  It's core is still intact and overall circulation look good.

Totally agree, classic sig here for explosion once North of Cuba

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see that, Steve.....the NW quad is still a mess.

Definitely some work to do on the west side of the circulation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, thank for that microwave image, which tells the real story.

I'm not speaking in absolutes...all I am saying is just don't be surprised if it stagnates, and never reassumes that pristine structure that it did in the Carribean.

[ROOSTA]

Looks to me as if it's rapidly getting it's act together

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I see sustained 53 gusting to 87 for your area on the GFS 

I see that running hi-res grib2 data, In fact what it's depicting is the infamous "pivot-point" is right on top. Based on present intensity projections. I want (don't) to experience CAT3 gusts! Ah the weenie has taken over...LOL,

   

[Baroclinic Zone]

I see no reason why it shouldn't intensify.  There is no "landmass" impeding flow around the center of circulation.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Definitely some work to do on the west side of the circulation.

isn't that from 7Am this morning?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see no reason why it shouldn't intensify.  There is no "landmass" impeding flow around the center of circulation.

I have seen so m any systems that were in the same situation, yet maintained some sore of structural defect for the rest of the life cycle.

Just food for thought....that's all.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have seen so m any systems that were in the same situation, yet maintained some sore of structural defect for the rest of the life cycle.

Just food for thought....that's all.

Usually it's dry air entrainment that I've anecdotally noticed many systems struggle to recover from. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have seen so m any systems that were in the same situation, yet maintained some sore of structural defect for the rest of the life cycle.

Just food for thought....that's all.

I can't recall a system where the eye went over western Haiti and Eastern Cuba. I know many have cut Cuba in half, most recently Sandy but which storm has gone this route.

[ROOSTA]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Usually it's dry air entrainment that I've anecdotally noticed many systems struggle to recover from. 

 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can't recall a system where the eye went over western Haiti and Eastern Cuba. I know many have cut Cuba in half, most recently Sandy but which storm has gone this route.

Combine those two excellent points with the scope of wind-field and intensity. We shall see in short order...

[Ginx snewx]

I love love these

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_14L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

isn't that from 7Am this morning?

I can't find a hi-res image any more recent than 1315z, and the low-res stuff still has a poorly defined western or southwestern side as of 1630z. 

[Typhoon Tip]

awesome to see the synoptic modeling catch up with the cosmic dildo's intent to destroy NE with a drought ..

foot of rain to nadda in 3 cycles - i guess the physics of the atmosphere got the memo, eh? 

ha!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

 

Combine those two excellent points with the scope of wind-field and intensity. We shall see in short order...

Yea..we'll find out.

I'm am not saying anyone is wrong....just not locking in a system much stronger than it is now.

[OceanStWx]

Plenty of deep, warm water ahead of it though (TC heat potential below). It will get there, but Cuba is definitely affecting the circulation.