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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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NECT

NECT

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

I'm tossing the prospect of Mattie coming up the coast via a phase with the incoming trough in the mid term. The writing has been on the wall with that for several runs, not just one run, and it has to do with the longwave pattern which models start to hone in on around day 4 (or day 5 if it is the Euro). The GEPS caving to the Euro two days ago was the big red flag for me.

If it is going to do a loop-de-loop down in the bahamas and then somehow catch a second trough 10 days from now and ride it up the coast...well that's just la la land and not worth discussing for another 5 days.

Well, now that the current projected path has taken a serious right, yeah, I see what you mean. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yet wreak havoc and cause millions in damage.

I have interest in Matthew since my daughter is scheduled to go travel down to Universal this Saturday evening and return middle of next week.

my sister lives in Jax. my niece is on her honeymoon, was in the Caribbean for 7 days now in Orlando scheduled to fly out thursday afternoon. Just read the Miami LHS , geez, seems overdone but if lF happens... 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=West Palm Beach FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.V_TqI-UrJ6k

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
On 10/3/2016 at 9:05 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I believe the Euro is handling speed better and has had the shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti for a while. The western moves are very troubling for Florida, after that a recurve hybrid Nor'easter or extensive pre rains seem more likely that a Hurricane

Dredging up an older post, but it's still relevant. The Euro position error has been superior even at day 5, which is fairly incredible. And you can see how the NHC (OFCL) has suffered from blending in the GFS (which has at least beat the CMC).

mae.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, OceanStWx said:

Dredging up an older post, but it's still relevant. The Euro position error has been superior even at day 5, which is fairly incredible. And you can see how the NHC (OFCL) has suffered from blending in the GFS (which has at least beat the CMC).

mae.png

Got this from someone else, but if you took EC op for 5 day forecast and EPS beyond, you would have been gold. Not that it will always work that way...just speaking with Matthew.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Got this from someone else, but if you took EC op for 5 day forecast and EPS beyond, you would have been gold. Not that it will always work that way...just speaking with Matthew.

And the GEFS led to false confidence in the forecast too. They matched the op so closely, it's almost useless. At least the EPS showed some significant uncertainty with track.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

The other interesting discussion going on is why the extra balloon launches for the East Coast.

Is that really the best use of our resources? Whatever trof/ridge combination we sample here and now is headed towards Europe. We should be trying to sample the eastern Pacific, as it's really the ridging heading towards the PAC NW that is affecting the downstream environment for Matthew. We would really be better off scrapping our balloon launches and having the West Coast start up 4 times a day. Better yet dropsondes over the ocean.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

if nothing else ... it has been one of the more adventurous modeling expos we've had in a long while.

unfortunately, for [probably] 90% of the site's observing/contributing members, not ending the way they had 'hoped.'

obviously as all are aware, or are getting up to speed on, the models are attempting to generate a consensus for a loop.  Should that take place, all bets are off and everything becomes relative ..or perhaps irrelevant is apropos.   

Case in point, is there a time table now?   answer - no.   "loop" implies a closed circle, so the time table is infinite in the philosophical sense of it.  So, there is no more "Folks, we're still talking 5 days away so -" heavy handed superiority reminders from those that would have us believe this stuff doesn't bother them...  because the real question becomes, '5 days until WHAT!'

It's a fascinating scenario if folks let it be just that.  As Will and others have opined along the way, this is just not the business to 'fall in love with' - you have to just maintain a purely intellectual vigil, sans the personal baggage, and wait one's turn.  eventually, you will get a chance to experience the awesome power of nature again... 

Know what would be funny ... this thing does  a loop, THEN come careening N on the next trough - ahaha.  oy vay -

I think if this loop scenario should pan out, one aspect we can justly ask upon looking back over this saga, is whether the models were just too liberal in knocking down the SE ridge.  It's tough to get a hurricane to rake the EC without that veering steering field aloft, typically associated with the OV to NF, trough-ridge couplet.  The models certainly attempted those tandem events on several if not many cycles over the span of the last week to 10 days.  It's just that now we are getting into wheelhouse range for synoptic lock and it's pretty clear that trough is less likely to carve far enough S-E... Transitively, the blocking ridge NE of the EC thus fails as well - that former tended to regulate the latter. The end result is a gigantic game changer for the track of Matt

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The other interesting discussion going on is why the extra balloon launches for the East Coast.

Is that really the best use of our resources? Whatever trof/ridge combination we sample here and now is headed towards Europe. We should be trying to sample the eastern Pacific, as it's really the ridging heading towards the PAC NW that is affecting the downstream environment for Matthew. We would really be better off scrapping our balloon launches and having the West Coast start up 4 times a day. Better yet dropsondes over the ocean.

yep

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The other interesting discussion going on is why the extra balloon launches for the East Coast.

Is that really the best use of our resources? Whatever trof/ridge combination we sample here and now is headed towards Europe. We should be trying to sample the eastern Pacific, as it's really the ridging heading towards the PAC NW that is affecting the downstream environment for Matthew. We would really be better off scrapping our balloon launches and having the West Coast start up 4 times a day. Better yet dropsondes over the ocean.

I said that a couple of days ago. The trough to impact (or not impact) was going to be moving into the Plains. Why not sample EPAC area and western NAMR?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I said that a couple of days ago. The trough to impact (or not impact) was going to be moving into the Plains. Why not sample EPAC area and western NAMR?

Optics look great though. We can say we're working around the clock to improve the model forecasts. Unfortunately, we've improved the model forecasts for Europe.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Optics look great though. We can say we're working around the clock to improve the model forecasts. Unfortunately, we've improved the model forecasts for Europe.

Modeling the storm with Global hawk drones  is however way cool and extremely important. The balloons not so much.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Optics look great though. We can say we're working around the clock to improve the model forecasts. Unfortunately, we've improved the model forecasts for Europe.

Met office is gonna get high scores for this week. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Mathew could still end up never touching the US mainland.

Hippy,  very true.  If Matthew approaches the Florida coast but the eye stays 50 or 75 miles offshore then the coast could end up having just gusty 40-50mph winds.  Usually the NE quad has the strongest winds so the coast could end up having north or northwest winds.  Matthew could scare and tease everyone up the coast and never hit.  Bad for public perception saying the government over reacted.  Of course if he comes just a bit more west and the eye rides the coast a whole different and devastating story.  

At the end of all this what a crazy storm track this may end up being.  People will say hurricanes can not make up their minds but we know it is all physics playing out in the atmosphere.

If the Euro continues to lead the way and if it is right perhaps we can get Matthew up here in Mid October.  Who knows, by then it could be northern New Englands first snow and this storm will have produced a 250 page thread.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hippy,  very true.  If Matthew approaches the Florida coast but the eye stays 50 or 75 miles offshore then the coast could end up having just gusty 40-50mph winds.  Usually the NE quad has the strongest winds so the coast could end up having north or northwest winds.  Matthew could scare and tease everyone up the coast and never hit.  Bad for public perception saying the government over reacted.  Of course if he comes just a bit more west and the eye rides the coast a whole different and devastating story.  

At the end of all this what a crazy storm track this may end up being.  People will say hurricanes can not make up their minds but we know it is all physics playing out in the atmosphere.

If the Euro continues to lead the way and if it is right perhaps we can get Matthew up here in Mid October.  Who knows, by then it could be northern New Englands first snow and this storm will have produced a 250 page thread.

Right on the anniversary of Sandy

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

my sister lives in Jax. my niece is on her honeymoon, was in the Caribbean for 7 days now in Orlando scheduled to fly out thursday afternoon. Just read the Miami LHS , geez, seems overdone but if lF happens... 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=West Palm Beach FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.V_TqI-UrJ6k

Why is that overdone?

Potential for widespread to extensive damage....seems pretty on point.

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