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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 10/6/2016 at 5:00 PM, Dan said:

 

tumblr_n3wl556nDN1sk712fo1_500.gif

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:lol:

Nice.

  On 10/6/2016 at 5:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

The real winds are in the eyewall and the western eyewall is weaker. If that misses or even offshore by only 5 or 10 miles...means everything. It's a real tough call given the coastline orientation and angle of approach. If anything it seems to be just a hair east of consensus so far...but it doesn't mean it will stay that way. A wobble could bring the eye right onshore too.  At this stage though, better be safer than sorry, so I would certainly take the warnings seriously. I'm just not sure of Katrina comparison given the uncertainties. 

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If it comes bodily inland it may rival it.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Looking at radar, it's a ore left of the previous course I'd say. But that's my earlier point Ray. It's not a certain lock that it comes ashore and then rakes the coastline causing all that damage. I mean maybe, but the real winds are in that eyewall and it would have to come at least partially onshore. It still easily could from the space coast and points north, so this is the area to watch.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 10/6/2016 at 9:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

Looking at radar, it's a ore left of the previous course I'd say. But that's my earlier point Ray. It's not a certain lock that it comes ashore and then rakes the coastline causing all that damage. I mean maybe, but the real winds are in that eyewall and it would have to come at least partially onshore. It still easily could from the space coast and points north, so this is the area to watch.

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We aren't disagreeing about anything.

IF it came bodily onshore sooner rather than later, we could see Katrina like numbers.....but the longer it parallels the coast, the more it will have time to weaken.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 10/6/2016 at 9:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

By the way, the inner eyewall has been in beast mode all day. One of the more impressive ones you will ever see around thse parts. Tons of LTG too.

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How much time you think we have until the outter eye wall pisses in the koolaid?

7-12 hours?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 10/6/2016 at 9:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

The hype down in FL is out of control. I talked with my Uncle who lives in Melbourne, and they are saying it could be like Andrew. Um, no. This is all the crap and circus that comes with these things. 

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It if it kept intensifying and came bodily in, but doesn't look like it will intensify too much more.

Damage could exceed Andrew...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 10/6/2016 at 9:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The nw quad is struggling some....but not sure I see shear, Will.

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It's def encountering more shear as it heads north...doesn't have to mean the eye collapses abruptly, but it's now around 20 knots of shear, if it gets to 25-30 then you'll prob start seeing structural degradation.

 

wg8shr.gif

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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  On 10/6/2016 at 9:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

The hype down in FL is out of control. I talked with my Uncle who lives in Melbourne, and they are saying it could be like Andrew. Um, no. This is all the crap and circus that comes with these things. 

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And so there is no way to be right unless this comes in like Andrew. Prepare for "they blew it out of proportion" stories bashing local mets, NHC, etc.

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