jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Impressive wall cloud with that storm just north of ICT, surprised it's not tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yes, there was pretty decent velocity couplet as that supercell went north of Wichita at 0014z. Maybe ICT meteorologists were on the phone with spotters that saw no funnel cloud. Marginal severe storm heading for OKC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It is never good when Rick Smith does things like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 00z OUN sounding is in, and it's pretty impressive. Storm may not be surface based anymore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jeff Piotrowski is chasing SE of Tuttle OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Oh no....the storm heading for Moore or just south between Moore and Norman is getting a hook and velocity is backing this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Jonbo said: Oh no....the storm heading for Moore is getting a hook and velocity is backing this up. https://www.periscope.tv/w/1gqxvdjMPgBGB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jeff's wife reporting power flashes. Still west of Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 48 minutes ago, andyhb said: 00z OUN sounding is in, and it's pretty impressive. Storm may not be surface based anymore though. I see you have the update version there. Tried to download. and still shows the 1.3.0 Xenia version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Not the best looking hook but it's still trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Has to be clutter, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 As far as I could tell there was not a tornado on the ground at any point, but that's just from what I saw. We drove just north of the hook through Moore, but couldn't see much. I think the storm may not have been surface based at the time but I'm not sure. It was a great chase. Photo during sunset in Verden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I was in the hook of the Chickasha-Moore storm most of its life-cycle. It had a decent RFD cut in near Tuttle and that was probably the closest it got to producing. Had a brief funnel and some decent rotation, but the storm seemed to be struggling to remain surface based most of the time. Had the storm fired 30 minutes earlier it would have probably been a much different story - and you'd have had several TORs as the cell moved through the southern end of the OKC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 ENH risk in the D2 for tomorrow. Pretty impressive parameter space on the NAM/Euro with strong shear and plenty of instability. Main question being how dominant with the surging anafront on the backside of the low be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well, plenty of Surface Based Convective Available Potential Energy for tomorrow evening. Also, wind fields look favorable for supercell development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Northwest of Kansas City, Missouri tomorrow evening off the 12z 4k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 hours ago, David Reimer said: I was in the hook of the Chickasha-Moore storm most of its life-cycle. It had a decent RFD cut in near Tuttle and that was probably the closest it got to producing. Had a brief funnel and some decent rotation, but the storm seemed to be struggling to remain surface based most of the time. Had the storm fired 30 minutes earlier it would have probably been a much different story - and you'd have had several TORs as the cell moved through the southern end of the OKC metro. Agreed on the timing aspect. An hour earlier, and at least one good hose would've been likely. It was pretty irritating at the time, having sat around watching turkey towers crap themselves all afternoon, only to blossom into a storm right as CINH started filling in. But it was probably for the best, for multiple reasons. Even focusing strictly on the chaser aspect of the setup, I was very concerned about what might transpire if a cyclic storm developed yesterday around CHK. Every significant tornado event in the metro for several years besides El Reno has been partially defused by multiple attractive target areas (5/6/15, 5/20/13), and I honestly foresee more problems -- potentially serious -- the next time the metro and its immediate surroundings are the sole and obvious bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 NAM-4km, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM all showing a squall line type development tomorrow. 0-6km shear seems strong enough for supercells, so I am sure this is worthy of at least a slight risk tomorrow from Oklahoma to parts of Iowa. As of now, the predicted 0-3km and 0-1km SRH values definitely show the possibility of tornadic supercells in NE Kansas. edit: 30mi west of Kansas City, 00z tomorrow, (18z NAM) MUCAPE=3272 J/kg, eff-SRH = 353 m2/s2, 0-6km shear=51 kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 0z NAM sounding for Topeka KS tomorrow evening. While the 0z NAM and 0z 4k NAM are showing the atmosphere being favorable for supercell thunderstorm development, I am just wondering how the storm mode will work itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Yeah, keeping an eye on tomorrow, but I'm not too impressed as of yet. It's really uncommon for any setup with a surging cold front ushering in legit chilly air to go big, even south of the triple point. In this case, we're talking about significant snowfall over the Sandhills concurrent with the storms we're rooting for tomorrow afternoon, which is a real red flag. Maybe we can sneak out a tornado or two around 21-23z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 This isn't your typical undercut anafrontal setup with a sheared out positively tilted upper trough though, I'll say that. Also regarding the snow thing, there was a full-blown blizzard going on 10/4/13 in the Black Hills and E into SD/N NE. I'm not really sure that's an ideal anecdote for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Sitting in the Kansas City area at work now. There hasn't been a break in the clouds all day here. Still very cool. If things aren't "heating up" so to speak NW of here, nothing too exciting should take place tonight. Still considering a late season chase though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, pbrussell said: Sitting in the Kansas City area at work now. There hasn't been a break in the clouds all day here. Still very cool. If things aren't "heating up" so to speak NW of here, nothing too exciting should take place tonight. Still considering a late season chase though. Just purely eyeballing the obs, the warm front is sitting in an unusual position just barely into SE Nebraska and SW Iowa currently but snaking well up to Des Moines and south of there.. I think Kansas still has a better shot but thus far, the warm front is lining up well for the enhanced area (pending next outlook in an hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Tornado Watch out for central Kansas to SE Nebraska/SW Iowa. Fairly high probs on hail and tornadoes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0493.html Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN IOWA CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A RAPID INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE OCCURS AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (70%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (40%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (20%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (70%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 10% hatched tor probs added in the 20z D1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Going to take off work early and head west toward topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Wish I could be down around Topeka also but financial restrictions are going to limit me to southeast nebraska/sw iowa unless something major happens within a reasonable distance. Promising sign things might verify watching this supercell ongoing southeast of Wichita before the 'main show' starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jonbo said: Wish I could be down around Topeka also but financial restrictions are going to limit me to southeast nebraska/sw iowa unless something major happens within a reasonable distance. Promising sign things might verify watching this supercell ongoing southeast of Wichita before the 'main show' starts. I'm getting the feeling that everything will go linear before I can get there anyway. Storm initiation is occurring wayyyy west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Either cycling or might have 2 tornadoes on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Sure you're all aware but cedar vale is confirmed TOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.