osubrett2 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Wednesday night into Thursday looks interesting for another "surprise" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 34 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: Wednesday night into Thursday looks interesting for another "surprise" event. Not to mention Thursday afternoon/night for possible snow squalls. ILN had a nice mention about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 17 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Not to mention Thursday afternoon/night for possible snow squalls. ILN had a nice mention about it. There definitely has been a signal for a decent shot of snowshowers/squalls from all the modeling. Even the normally dry-as-a-bone Euro is picking up on it a bit. It's a favorable flow for us here in Central Ohio. Next week looks interesting. Looks like there are two things to watch for. First, the early/mid week system that looks like it's going to go far enough west of us to be rain. Then there is pretty good agreement of either a follow up storm or an overrunning event on it's heels. If that first storm really cranks and parks over eastern Canada then the confluence would most likely crush any follow up threat for us, and we end up with rain to flurries to dry cold. If the first storm is weaker, that might set the stage for our first trackable event later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 zzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like for the Dayton area ILN has gone from an all rain thing for Sat-Sat night yesterday, to this overnight mentioning starting out as a mix and even possible accums Sat night (minimal as they are)? looks like they're paying attention to the 850s... Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Southwest wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow between 11pm and 4am, then a slight chance of rain and snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What a snooze fest on the 12z GFS!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 31 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: What a snooze fest on the 12z GFS!!!! LOL the gfs crushes the day 9 system the ggem gives us a foot of snow and manages to get us dangerously close to the rain/snow line I like that kind of model mayhem this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, buckeye said: the gfs crushes the day 9 system the ggem gives us a foot of snow and manages to get us dangerously close to the rain/snow line I like that kind of model mayhem this far out Hah, good point. Let us know what the Euro shows will ya? Hope you had a good Christmas Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Hah, good point. Let us know what the Euro shows will ya? Hope you had a good Christmas Mike. euro is kind of a blend. It has a narrow strip of light to mod snow in southern OH getting heavier towards the coast but it's kind of a hot mess. The 500 map is worlds apart from 00z. The 00z was almost flat and the 12Z is way more amplified, in fact I would have thought the storm would be more intense. If I had to place bets now I would bet against the suppression options. It will be a matter of how far north and how strong a surface low/overrunning/warm tongue etc. can come. It will be the battle of the se ridge and the low heights and confluence over southeast Canada. I even think a full blown cutter isn't off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, buckeye said: euro is kind of a blend. It has a narrow strip of light to mod snow in southern OH getting heavier towards the coast but it's kind of a hot mess. The 500 map is worlds apart from 00z. The 00z was almost flat and the 12Z is way more amplified, in fact I would have thought the storm would be more intense. If I had to place bets now I would bet against the suppression options. It will be a matter of how far north and how strong a surface low/overrunning/warm tongue etc. can come. It will be the battle of the se ridge and the low heights and confluence over southeast Canada. I even think a full blown cutter isn't off the table at this point. Cool! Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 GFS and the Para have had that storm in a similar location as the GEM shows on the 12z. Both have now power bombed it to the south lol. Might have it figured out around 72hrs out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 ILN has a great write up concerning the squalls tonight. Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 356 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, bringing snow showers and snow squalls to the region this evening. Snow showers will diminish on Friday, as high pressure builds into the southeast states, extending northward into the Ohio Valley. A series of low pressure systems will move northeast through the region from Saturday through Monday, bringing additional chances for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The main concern for the near term forecast is the potential for snow showers and snow squalls late this afternoon and this evening. The middle Ohio Valley is currently located in a regime of deep-layer WNW flow. While there is evidence of a weak surfacetrough, along an axis from roughly Port Huron MI to Springfield IL, this trough is not well defined -- just a slight 20-30 degreewind shift and little change in boundary layer air mass. There is also very little going on at 500mb and above, with the upper jet curving well south of the region, and no real indication of notable forcing further aloft. The features to monitor are located in between, showing up nicely on recent RAP13 runs. A compactshortwave at 700mb is currently moving through northern Illinois, and will move WSW across Indiana and Ohio over the next few hours. As this occurs, there will be a rapid cooling/moistening of the 850mb-700mb layer, which will have a pronounced effect on weather conditions over the region -- a significant deepening of theboundary layer. The clear skies observed over much of the forecast area this afternoon will be quickly replaced by thick convectivestratocumulus in a very-well-mixed near-surface environment. The genesis region for this change in atmospheric conditions is presently over NE Illinois, as evidenced by the curved band of clouds on visible satellite and the developing 20-30 dBZ echoes between Chicago and Springfield -- and, to note, not the unidentified non-meteorological echoes over southern Indiana. Recent HRRR runs / 12Z WRF-NMM / 12Z SPC-WRF runs suggest that a broken band of snow squalls will cross the ILN forecast area from WNW to ESE between 21Z and 02Z, with continued scattered snow shower activity following behind. Current observations suggest this may be a little too fast, maybe by an hour or so. As this activity crosses through the area, the mixed layer will extend far enough aloft to support wind gusts in the 30-35 knot range, with steepening lapse rates that will allow for convective instability through about 8kft AGL / 700mb. This instability will overlap thedendritic growth zone with increasing relative humidity within the -12C to -18C layer, resulting in efficient snow production for what should be a relatively brief period of time. Across multiple model datasets as viewed in BUFKIT, values for these parameters -- such as low-level lapse rates, wind speeds, SBCAPE, and DGZ depth/RH -- fit nicely within WFO ILN (Kurz/Haines) research from verified snow squall cases. To no surprise, this is also indicated on the WFO BTV snow squall parameter (Banacos/Loconto/Devoir). Despite this, there are a few factors that might keep this from being one of the truly high-impact snow squall events -- the lack of a classic arctic front to focus low-level convergence, relatively un-hazardous (warm) antecedent conditions, and the lack of upper support (shortwave or PV anomaly) to increase lift. The ultimate expectation is that most of the CWA will be impacted by the initial broken band of snow showers / snow squalls, some of which may become strong enough to support hazards of rapid accumulations and loss of visibility. Once the initial band has passed, RH in the dendritic growth zone decreases significantly with southwestward extent, and continued snow shower activity will be much more likely further to the northeast (especially along and north of a rough line from Richmond IN to ChillicotheOH). Forecasting accumulations for this sort of scenario is difficult, as some locations impacted by the squalls or repeated snow showers could quickly pick up a half inch (possibly up near an inch) while other locations (especially in the southwestern sections of the CWA) may receive little to no accumulation. An overall diminishing trend in snow shower coverage and windgust intensity is expected after 06Z, with continued coldadvection heading into Friday morning, and lows in the middle to upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Getting first band of snow mixed with some grapple. Wind has picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z GFS looked better for the possible storm in a week. Snow made it to just north of I-70. Basically Euroish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Blah,. Suppressed weak sauce was the overwhelming theme of the overnight runs. Still 7-8 days out..... I guess we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 hours ago, buckeye said: Blah,. Suppressed weak sauce was the overwhelming theme of the overnight runs. Still 7-8 days out..... I guess we got that going for us. 12z GFS looks much better. General 3-6" for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 We have close to 2 inches here in Newark!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 12z GFS looks much better. General 3-6" for most of us. General agreement on this with both 12z GGEM and Euro as well for along and south of I-70. Timing is off especially with Euro having 2 waves the second being stronger and occurring over next weekend while GFS/GGEM is basically next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 33 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: General agreement on this with both 12z GGEM and Euro as well for along and south of I-70. Timing is off especially with Euro having 2 waves the second being stronger and occurring over next weekend while GFS/GGEM is basically next Thursday. I think at this point the most we can say is that the latter half of next week is looking interesting and we finally have our first real potential tracking event(s). All three models, gfs, euro, and ggem show snow streaking out across the sub as early as day 6/7 in response to the energy out west. If this is all holding together by Monday morning...then it's time to go into full throttle tracking mode. Until then, I'll keep my expectations equal to seeing a 300+ hour gfs fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: I think at this point the most we can say is that the latter half of next week is looking interesting and we finally have our first real potential tracking event(s). All three models, gfs, euro, and ggem show snow streaking out across the sub as early as day 6/7 in response to the energy out west. If this is all holding together by Monday morning...then it's time to go into full throttle tracking mode. Until then, I'll keep my expectations equal to seeing a 300+ hour gfs fantasy storm. I think set up screams southern slider, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: I think set up screams southern slider, but we'll see Definitely a possibility, but just as likely would be a further north storm and the dreaded warm tongue lapping the i-70 corridor. To throw another idea out there, the JMA has a 989 low sitting over about Richmond VA at 168....lot's of precip still makes it well into all of OH although that would obviously be a huge hit for the Ohio River valley and WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Definitely a possibility, but just as likely would be a further north storm and the dreaded warm tongue lapping the i-70 corridor. To throw another idea out there, the JMA has a 989 low sitting over about Richmond VA at 168....lot's of precip still makes it well into all of OH although that would obviously be a huge hit for the Ohio River valley and WV. It's amazing how south of here has done better it seems recently with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 hours ago, pondo1000 said: I think set up screams southern slider, but we'll see That SE ridge gives us some hope where in years past a set up like this was a foregone conclusion - a slider. I agree with Buckeye, if this is still holding together by Monday ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: That idge SE ridge gives us some hope where in years past a set up like this was a foregone conclusion - a slider. I agree with Buckeye, if this is still holding together by Monday ... Valid point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So now what?! 12z a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 To the song, "Wake me up when September ends...." Wake me up, when this winter ends.... HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Nobody commenting on the 0z GFS? It's para doesn't agree so maybe a chance we get less tease runs when the new one is put in operation? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I doubt it lol. That storm has been suppressed and strung out to gone the last couple days. Now it's back and thumping southern states. 06z and 12z total whiff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Other than whatever the arctic front can deliver, (maybe a dusting to an inch), on Thursday, it's going to be snooze-ville for the foreseeable future. Worst kind of winter weather, just cold enough to be annoying and warm enough to keep all our precip events as cold rain. At least we don't have any models jerking us around like the gfs is doing to the poor MA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 At least we might get a little fluffy snow on Thursday. Should be decent ratio (at least 15:1). Euro and CMC more onto it than the GFS or NAM. Neither even really show it until a hint of it on their 18z runs today. Perhaps the 0z runs tonight will start to catch it. 12z Euro has 0.06" at CVG which may be good for an inch of snow. Best we can do with this pattern it seems lol We will have to watch Thursday to see if a bit more moisture gets involved last second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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