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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve

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27 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Even worse news, at the moment there's no real threat of snow through Christmas and we lose our snow cover this weekend.  No one does a brown Christmas like central Ohio!!

 

heh,

I'm the last person to be the winter weather ambassador for Columbus, but right now the gripes aren't really warranted.   I have about 4" in my back yard and sitting around 12 degrees, everything is coated in snow and the freak snow we got yesterday became the 'inverted' snow hole this time, many to our south and north still with bare ground.

Yea, it's gonna get sloppy and warm and all that but so is most of the entire 3rd of the country.

We normally have plenty of reasons to b**ch, (which I enthusiastically enjoy), especially with storm tracks the last couple winters, but we need to enjoy the wins if we want to keep the fun of b**ch'n real. :)

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

heh,

I'm the last person to be the winter weather ambassador for Columbus, but right now the gripes aren't really warranted.   I have about 4" in my back yard and sitting around 12 degrees, everything is coated in snow and the freak snow we got yesterday became the 'inverted' snow hole this time, many to our south and north still with bare ground.

Yea, it's gonna get sloppy and warm and all that but so is most of the entire 3rd of the country.

We normally have plenty of reasons to b**ch, (which I enthusiastically enjoy), especially with storm tracks the last couple winters, but we need to enjoy the wins if we want to keep the fun of b**ch'n real. :)

Well said but a white Christmas sure would be nice. Thought we had a legitimate shot this year (sigh).

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7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Well said but a white Christmas sure would be nice. Thought we had a legitimate shot this year (sigh).

other than '89 which was a wall to wall arctic plunge for all of December, it's rare for us to have a December entirely cold.   So when it looked like it was coming the first half of the month I had a feeling the writing was on the wall and the proverbial load would be blown by the holidays.     Hopefully we can get some winter in January.  If not, then bring on January/Feb/March 2012 redux!!!  :wub:

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NAM still looking icy from Columbus to Mansfield and into all of NE Ohio. Pretty good consistency from the torch known as the NAM. ILN sides with the NAM as well, but isn't buying its totals. I'd also trust the NAM over other lower res models at this point too. Will be interesting to see what the other hi res models start to show tomorrow morning. 

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5 hours ago, dilly84 said:

Well it looks like any shot at a white Christmas for us in Central and Southern Ohio is out. How long has it been like 10 years for most of us?

The last one I recall specifically was 2004 because it was one week after that epic snow/ice storm hit.   Of course that had an incredibly sharp cut off and if you were 15 miles east of Columbus it was a cold rainstorm, 15 miles west and over foot of snow, and in the city of Columbus, a snowstorm that ended as an ice storm, (mby).   It was the forerunner of an arctic outbreak that lasted through xmas so every bit of frozen that fell, stuck around.    

That was 12 years ago and although it was misery for those who lost power for a week, it was the most amazing winter-scape on xmas day, with the snow encased in nearly half an inch of ice, everything twinkling and sparkling in the sun.

I can't think of another one since then.  Closest would be the OV boxing day snowstorm we had 3 or 4 years ago but of course that was the day after.    

I'd be surprised if we didn't have at least 1" on the ground sometime in the last 11 years on xmas day....surprised not shocked.  Interesting to see if that's the case.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

The last one I recall specifically was 2004 because it was one week after that epic snow/ice storm hit.   Of course that had an incredibly sharp cut off and if you were 15 miles east of Columbus it was a cold rainstorm, 15 miles west and over foot of snow, and in the city of Columbus, a snowstorm that ended as an ice storm, (mby).   It was the forerunner of an arctic outbreak that lasted through xmas so every bit of frozen that fell, stuck around.    

That was 12 years ago and although it was misery for those who lost power for a week, it was the most amazing winter-scape on xmas day, with the snow encased in nearly half an inch of ice, everything twinkling and sparkling in the sun.

I can't think of another one since then.  Closest would be the OV boxing day snowstorm we had 3 or 4 years ago but of course that was the day after.    

I'd be surprised if we didn't have at least 1" on the ground sometime in the last 11 years on xmas day....surprised not shocked.  Interesting to see if that's the case.

Lived here since '07 & recall an "official" white Christmas I believe one time. Don't remember the year. 

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Buckeye, I remember 04 very well. I followed that storm for days. We had all freezing rain. Family rushed out to get a generator cause we knew we were losing power. Some were without for a week. I remember another Christmas system I wanna say in 2001-2002. Forecasts up to Christmas Eve night were calling for up to a foot of snow. We ended up with zero lol

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38 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Buckeye, I remember 04 very well. I followed that storm for days. We had all freezing rain. Family rushed out to get a generator cause we knew we were losing power. Some were without for a week. I remember another Christmas system I wanna say in 2001-2002. Forecasts up to Christmas Eve night were calling for up to a foot of snow. We ended up with zero lol

Ugh....that was one of my top 3 heartbreak storms.   2002 Christmas Eve.   I remember it all too well.   We ended up with a light sleet/rain mix that never went over to snow.  Indiana got pummeled and I think parts of western and northern Ohio as well.  

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I remember that storm like it was yesterday. I lived, and still live, in NE OH and the forecast called for some snow to start around midnight Christmas Eve and continue through the night. IIRC, they were only expecting 1-2" of snow. When I woke up, there was a foot of snow outside. Most amazing Christmas ever.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Ugh....that was one of my top 3 heartbreak storms.   2002 Christmas Eve.   I remember it all too well.   We ended up with a light sleet/rain mix that never went over to snow.  Indiana got pummeled and I think parts of western and northern Ohio as well.  

Forecast was for inch or two and ended up with 12+.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Forecast was for inch or two and ended up with 12+.

Yep, I still remember trying to sneak peeks at the nws radar all evening while all my relatives were over for dinner.   The mix line set up just to our west and IN was under heavy white returns all night and we were in the pink and green.  Between having to look at that radar and my mother-in-law all night, there wasn't enough egg nogg to put me out of my misery.  

I always thought that Dec '04 storm was partial karma for the '02 grinch storm in Columbus, although in the '04 storm there were isolated reports in extreme eastern IN and western OH of well over 30" which is absolutely incredible.

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Looking like we will hover around 40-45° Christmas day this year with rain. Best we can hope for is a major southeast shift, which doesn't seem very likely. Models have been pretty consistent temp wise with regards to Christmas Eve and day. Luckily I'm only 32, so there is hopefully still time lol.

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Appears ILN isn't going to go with any headlines, (winter wx advisory) for us, just a special weather statement.   Looking at some of the SR models it looks like Central OH will see similar effects of the rapid changeover as a lot of other places around us under WWA's.

Considering they totally missed the 3-5" snows we received earlier this week, (no advisories until we had already met criteria),  I'm surprised they're playing it conservative again, especially with such a dynamic situation.

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23 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

This is the type of day that makes me miss Columbus and farther south into Ohio. I would love to move back, but my job in Lima is wayyyyyyyyyyyy to good of paying job. I have not had anything close in Columbus to match it and Lima is cheap as hell to live around. I would need a 150,000+ job to even think about it.

ummm,  what exactly is it you miss?   The rain?  fog?  temps in the 40s?

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Well the 6" of snow that fell last week compressed itself down to about 3" by late in the day Friday even though the temps never went above 23 (must have melted from the bottom), then that all melted off (including the piles) in a couple hours yesterday when it hit 57.

Now 24 degrees and back snowing again, everything has a thin white coating, visibility is only a little over a mile:

G3 Radar Dec 18 2016 sm.png

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Had a small shift south on the 12z GFS for the Christmas day system. Week out, hopefully it's a trend. Looks now like it'd start out as snow north of i-70 before turning to rain later in the afternoon. Baby steps I suppose. Id gladly take an I checked or two Christmas morning with a switch later. Lol.

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10 hours ago, dilly84 said:

Had a small shift south on the 12z GFS for the Christmas day system. Week out, hopefully it's a trend. Looks now like it'd start out as snow north of i-70 before turning to rain later in the afternoon. Baby steps I suppose. Id gladly take an I checked or two Christmas morning with a switch later. Lol.

Don't do it to yourself Dilly.    No way we see a snowstorm in this pattern with a raging +AO, +NAO, and -PNA....and a southeast ridge going on steroids.   That gfs solution was probably the last gasp of fantasy storms we see for awhile.    Sooner we accept what we have coming up in the next few weeks, the better.   Winter probably on hiatus at least thru mid Jan.   

At least we managed one nice surprise during the cold shot we had.  

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Well it looks like we'll have to put up with about 10 more days of a no-snow-snooze-fest, (say that 10 times fast).    Good news is the EPS dramatically increases snow chances for the OV beyond day 10.  Plenty of nice hits from lower lakes, OV and even the TN valley.   Models sniffing out a better pattern possibly breaking open a week or so sooner than originally thought.

Just hope the first salvo doesn't end up being a bluegrass special.....   :axe:

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