California (and west coast)

[Roger Smith]

Just watching news coverage of that tornado, cut through the village of Manzanita and brought down several large trees, appears to have done (edit) significant damage to homes (some look partly demolished) and (more minor damage to) a small business complex that I remember visiting for a coffee on a recent trip. The video was quite good, appeared to be a waterspout that extended to ground level and transformed into an F-1 or possibly F-2 from more recent video of tornado and damage. Manzanita is about 25 miles south of Cannon Beach and west-north-west from Portland. It's a very scenic area. This is what it looks like in better weather (looking south from a lookout 2 miles north of the town which you can see there beside the bay at the bottom of the cliff).

[Roger Smith]

Just for the record, the peak winds at weather stations in this round of the pre-storm action were around 55 mph at both Bellingham and Whidbey Island, even Hoquiam didn't gust higher than that, buoys had peaks near 45 knots. Saturna Island currently has a sustained SSE wind of 74 km/hr, about 46 mph. It is basically another ugly day around here, leaves are flying but I would say looking down the street we are still at 80% leaf cover on the large deciduous trees. We've had another 15-20 mm of rain today so far.

Will try to get some video of the windy conditions late afternoon tomorrow, may have to go to the local cemetery so if something goes wrong, problem solved, just throw a tarp over me as I don't want the crows to get too big. 

[Roger Smith]

This will help readers track the storms ... SEA radar very active at this time

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=atx&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no

and PDX radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=rtx&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no

squally showers moving inland around Astoria at this point. 

I saw that tornado warned cell on radar around 0830h after it had moved inland, it was headed in the general direction of Kelso-Longview so now the remnants are probably near Yakima. 

[Roger Smith]

Mega-ugly outside here, pelting rain and swirling winds, I just got back in from lunch, drove through an anticyclonic leaf swirl of about 60 mph thanks to all the high-rise buildings creating a wind tunnel effect, saw construction fencing down and a small tree snapped in half. If this is the pre-storm, Lord help us with the main event. 

[TPAwx]

The sun is beginning to break out here in Seattle.  Very breezy with showers, after a daily rainfall record on Thursday.  NWS is calling for winds late Saturday to be 40-50 with gusts 65+, with high sensitivity to the system track.  A wobble east and conditions would be more intense for Seattle metro.

[Roger Smith]

A second tornado now being reported in this morning's episode, this one at Oceanside OR which is maybe 40 miles south of Manzanita but in a very similar location (south of a big hill at Cape Meares, on a beach). 

And another spin-off from the stormy weather, fires near Lake Tahoe in CA and NV are spreading out of control as very strong southwest winds develop ahead of the front. 

[Chinook]

Point&click weather forecast for Mt Hood (11000 ft) tomorrow night

 

Snow before 11pm, then snow showers after 11pm. Low around 21. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a west southwest wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 38 to 48 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

[TPAwx]

The 0z gfs has the position a bit NE of 18z and thus closer to the coast.

[Chinook]

NWS Seattle forecast discussion

Quote

 .SHORT TERM...A deep but filling surface low is currently moving into southern British 
Columbia. Highs winds coast and north interior and gusty advisory strength winds elsewhere should ease 
  early this evening as the low moves inland. 
   
  An even stronger storm - the remnants of a typhoon - will move through the area Saturday 
afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty about exactly where the low will 
track. The best current estimate is a low around 970 mb will make landfall over the far north 
coast around 00Z Sunday and then fill and move inland into southern British Columbia during 
the evening. This should give high wind to most of the area with the strongest winds 
  Saturday evening. 
   
....
   
  Computer models have converged on more of a SW-NE track for the powerful low on Saturday,
 although the models still have small but critical differences in the exact track. At this point 
it looks like the SW-NE track will spare most or all of the central and northern WA coast from
 large waves Saturday night. However, a slight westward change in the track could expose the 
central coast around Grays Harbor to large waves.

 

[andyhb]

Tornado in Manzanita rated EF2, first significant tornado in Oregon since 2010.

[TPAwx]

The EC is an intense windstorm for the coast and metro areas.  Any deviation left and it would likely be historic.

[1900hurricane]

The remnants of Songda are beginning to re-amplify near the NW CONUS coast.

[TPAwx]

GFS now keeps the track further offshore and moves north into Vanvouver Island implying a less intense wind event for Seattle metro.  Now cast time.

 

[Roger Smith]

Center is about 44 N 127 W (980 mb) and would need to head NNE to make any landfall in nw WA, appears to be on about that heading now. Probably more important than exact heading is the actual central pressure in next six hours determining gradient. I think it's a monster in the making -- has eliminated any doubts about a s.w. BC impact on this heading.

Strongest wind gust so far is 55 knots at Port Orford buoy with 43 knots at (20nm west of) Newport buoy. Meanwhile on land, the 17z reports show a sharp increase in gusts at Newport (SE 37 mph) but otherwise the storm has not really hit land yet, will probably ramp up very fast next 2-3 hours around Astoria. 

Keep an eye on this marine site for afternoon developments (I may be out for a while now, will post any relevant wind speed data that I don't see in other posts)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46041

That location is 45 nm northwest of Aberdeen WA. Center should be just west of it around 21z. 

[TPAwx]

Would agree Roger Smith with your intensity comments.  If we've seen anything across the globe in recent years, it's become common for low pressure systems to deepen rapidly or beyond forecast.  Current meso

[andyhb]

Man the UW WRF-GFS and HRRR are just crushing the Greater Vancouver area later. Would have to think this could be the most significant "blow" since the Hanukkah Eve 2006 storm here (and given the underdone deepening, this may be selling it a bit short).

[Chinook]

buoy near Port Orford OR now getting gusts to 65mph

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Man the UW WRF-GFS and HRRR are just crushing the Greater Vancouver area later. Would have to think this could be the most significant "blow" since the Hanukkah Eve 2006 storm here (and given the underdone deepening, this may be selling it a bit short).

What kind of winds are you expecting there Andy?

[andyhb]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What kind of winds are you expecting there Andy?

Some areas (especially closer to the Strait of Georgia) may very well see gusts of 60 to hurricane force. In addition to the potent southerlies ahead of the storm, we also need to watch out for a "sting jet" type feature with the bent back occlusion on the backside of the low (this was responsible for the worst winds in the 2006 storm). Given we just had a storm yesterday that i) saturated the ground with heavy rainfall and ii) stressed the vegetation with relatively high winds, there's likely to be widespread tree damage and potentially some structural damage if the gusts reach the high end.

[Chinook]

storm damage reports from Oct 13 - late evening Oct 14

[Roger Smith]

At 20z (1 p.m. PDT) the peak winds offshore are found at the Columbia River bar (43 kts gusting 56 kts). These strong winds have not hit land yet except around Newport and higher elevations of west central OR. Newport has gusts to 51 mph and Sexton Summit on the I-5 has gusts to 53 mph. 

The buoy with lowest pressure is west of Aberdeen WA and has 40 knot gusts from ESE with 979 mb. This combined with satellite imagery suggests a 974 mb low at 46N 126W. Seems on track to clip the northwest tip of WA near Forks then head into Vancouver Island near Tofino. 

I expect this to max out this evening in Puget Sound and s.w. BC, combined track and pressure trend seems ideal for hurricane force gusts to develop. High waves as far north as central WA coast, and storm surge issues north Puget Sound into Boundary Bay around 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. around high tides (full moon is overnight and it's a perigeean full moon within 20 hours). 

[Chinook]

77mph non-thunderstorm wind report near Tillamook OR.

[Roger Smith]

21z obs showing further pressure falls at Aberdeen buoy (976 mb) where peak gusts now 49 knots SE. An eye is visible on satellite imagery just to the west of this location. Strong gusts at Astoria (49 mph) still well below forecast but cold front has not passed the coast yet (slight wave formation evident west of Newport). Squally winds will reach more of the coast next hour probably. 

Timing the windstorm for southwest BC at 9 p.m. to midnight, peak gusts 130 km/hr in south Surrey and Langley. Towards end of the landfall there could be peak westerly gusts around Victoria too (120 km/hr). 

[Roger Smith]

(22z update) _ 3 pm PDT

Now we have the full-blown storm, the Aberdeen buoy continues to show 976 mb, peak gusts 56 knots, wind has veered to south.

Destruction Island a bit closer to the WA coast now 56 kts gusting 68 kts. 

 

[Roger Smith]

At 23z (4 p.m. PDT) center clearly visible on radar and satellite just west of Forks, WA, estimated pressure 970 mb. Destruction Island continues to report gusts around 63 knots, the Aberdeen buoy has dropped back into mid-40s.

Winds have remained very strong along WA coast although land stations have not been reporting severe gusts, news reports show spells of 50-60 mph on WA state beaches and 20-30 ft seas off the coast (it's near low tide now but water flooding in anyway). 

Hope nobody thinks this is an under-performer because the storm orientation to land will soon force regional wind to flow out (as we can already see in Howe Sound with gusts to 90 km/hr NNE). When this becomes more of a SSE flow over Puget Sound, look out. 

 

[Chinook]

14 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

At 23z (4 p.m. PDT) center clearly visible on radar and satellite just west of Forks, WA, estimated pressure 970 mb. Destruction Island continues to report gusts around 63 knots, the Aberdeen buoy has dropped back into mid-40s.

Winds have remained very strong along WA coast although land stations have not been reporting severe gusts, news reports show spells of 50-60 mph on WA state beaches and 20-30 ft seas off the coast (it's near low tide now but water flooding in anyway). 

Hope nobody thinks this is an under-performer because the storm orientation to land will soon force regional wind to flow out (as we can already see in Howe Sound with gusts to 90 km/hr NNE). When this becomes more of a SSE flow over Puget Sound, look out. 

 

So, Howe Sound has a 90km/h wind -from- the NNE? Is this farther north up the BC coast?

[Roger Smith]

It is a long north-south inlet to the northwest of Vancouver, they often get a regional outflow wind at right angles to the geostrophic wind. There are also strong east winds blowing out of Vancouver harbour at Point Atkinson (which is 5 miles nw of downtown Vancouver). At my location about 10 miles east of YVR, the current wind is ESE 30-40 mph with occasional strong gusts, small branches are coming down. It's nowhere near as windy as yesterday yet though. 

[Roger Smith]

01z (6 p.m.) obs include a sharp pressure drop at both Tatoosh Island (968 mb) and Cape Flattery (974 mb) marine sites, have to wonder if this storm is going to have a vicious sting in the tail for n WA and sw BC. 

Strongest wind gust on land is at Saturna Island in the Gulf Islands, 55 mph (89 km/hr). TV coverage was showing very strong winds and large waves on west shore of Whidbey Island WA although nearby obs are fairly tame. 

 

[Chinook]

Sea-Tac reports thunder and rain, and wind gust to 39mph (gale force). I guess this will count as one of the few thunderstorm days per year reported at Sea-Tac.

[andyhb]

....or not.

Pretty significant bust by a number of models on this one. The low ended up not as deep as forecast by most guidance, tracked further offshore, occluded faster and had a much more northward component of motion. This basically meant that most of the large metropolitan areas got spared from an intense gale.