high risk Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 2 hours ago, mappy said: Saturday still looking cool and breezy? Dry? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes, but probably more on the "windy" side. Verbatim, the models are dry, but it will be really cold aloft, so I supposed it's possible that a vort rotating through the trough could spark an isolated shower, but it seems like a very low probability right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 NAM nest and especially the HRRR really hold back the showers Friday afternoon, so I suspect a lot of people will see highs into the 80s for one more day. HRRR looks like a bit of a squall line approaching late day, although it doesn't show much of a lightning signal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Bring on the COLD, with very low dewpoints and high winds. I am sick to death of green leaves. Blow those damn leaves off. I love bare trees and a crisp cold feel. Its late October. It needs to FEEL like late October. Highs in the low 50s with lows around 27 and dews in the middle 20s would be a nice start. We've earned this. We've been forced to endure all out summer well into October. This is northern VA, not south central Texas. I DEMAND a TROUGH OF DEATH with no mercy. Zero mercy. I want low clouds, a chill mist, strong northeasterly winds. I want to be COLD when I come in and I better be COLD when I go out. I want my hands to hurt like hell. I want a FROZEN NOSE. I want to freeze on every one of my jebwalks as though I was in northern Alaska in the Brooks Range at 17000 feet elevation. I want to be as cold as if I were self evacuating from the Mt Washington Observatory in 5 degree weather with sustained hurricane force winds on an ice covered auto road because the SnoCat broke down on the mountain! I had better be super cold, or there is going to be HELL TO PAY. I am sick of this g&ddamned abnormal heat in the mid atlantic! This 68 degree dewpoint today OCT 20 is pure bullsh!t. There's NO place for this hot weather at this time of year!. Last night felt like mid July! I almost choked to death on humidity. The West can take an upper ridge all fall and winter. I am unabashedly selfish - I demand the trough all fall and winter. The West does not need rain. I definitely need low clouds and piercing cold. We have been tortured with no mercy by temperatures 20 degrees ABOVE NORMAL. Now I DEMAND temperature at least 20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. It wont be torture to me. Cold, low clouds mist high winds out of the north, this is a place I call home. Ordinary men DIE there, but I THRIVE there - I call such a place home, and I yearn for it with all my heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 Jeb is in mid-season form! A full week's worth of +20F will definitely make you crazy. Another early-morning steam-bath. Walked the 1/2 mile to the bagel shop for bagels to bring to work and broke a sweat. 2 months from the winter solstice and still dealing with this crap. Incredible. So much for yesterday's forecast of high 62F, clouds, and rain. Full sun and 65F already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 9 hours ago, Jebman said: Bring on the COLD, with very low dewpoints and high winds. I am sick to death of green leaves. Blow those damn leaves off. I love bare trees and a crisp cold feel. Its late October. It needs to FEEL like late October. Highs in the low 50s with lows around 27 and dews in the middle 20s would be a nice start. We've earned this. We've been forced to endure all out summer well into October. This is northern VA, not south central Texas. I DEMAND a TROUGH OF DEATH with no mercy. Zero mercy. I want low clouds, a chill mist, strong northeasterly winds. I want to be COLD when I come in and I better be COLD when I go out. I want my hands to hurt like hell. I want a FROZEN NOSE. I want to freeze on every one of my jebwalks as though I was in northern Alaska in the Brooks Range at 17000 feet elevation. I want to be as cold as if I were self evacuating from the Mt Washington Observatory in 5 degree weather with sustained hurricane force winds on an ice covered auto road because the SnoCat broke down on the mountain! I had better be super cold, or there is going to be HELL TO PAY. I am sick of this g&ddamned abnormal heat in the mid atlantic! This 68 degree dewpoint today OCT 20 is pure bullsh!t. There's NO place for this hot weather at this time of year!. Last night felt like mid July! I almost choked to death on humidity. The West can take an upper ridge all fall and winter. I am unabashedly selfish - I demand the trough all fall and winter. The West does not need rain. I definitely need low clouds and piercing cold. We have been tortured with no mercy by temperatures 20 degrees ABOVE NORMAL. Now I DEMAND temperature at least 20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. It wont be torture to me. Cold, low clouds mist high winds out of the north, this is a place I call home. Ordinary men DIE there, but I THRIVE there - I call such a place home, and I yearn for it with all my heart. Aaahhhhh....all is right with the world now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Yes, but probably more on the "windy" side. Verbatim, the models are dry, but it will be really cold aloft, so I supposed it's possible that a vort rotating through the trough could spark an isolated shower, but it seems like a very low probability right now. Thanks! We can manage cool and wind, rain would really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 BTW, my 58.8 'low' set a new record for the date, beating the 58.0 recorded back in 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I have flowers blooming AND tomato plants growing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 Temp drop from 72 to 66F. Gusty sprinkles. At least it's cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 3-6 looks like the best time for the Showers/iso T-storm and the temp drop based on radar/HRRR. Upper 70s area wide, Frederick is still ahead of the front, but pop up showers are just west like near the I-70/Alt 40 (Old National Pike) interchange. Showers have a SW-NE trajectory right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 11 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: 3-6 looks like the best time for the Showers/iso T-storm and the temp drop based on radar/HRRR. Upper 70s area wide, Frederick is still ahead of the front, but pop up showers are just west like near the I-70/Alt 40 (Old National Pike) interchange. Showers have a SW-NE trajectory right now. Round 1 is 3-6PM, but the HRRR then shows a short break followed by a another round of showers between roughly 8 and 11PM. Maybe one final round 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, high risk said: Round 1 is 3-6PM, but the HRRR then shows a short break followed by a another round of showers between roughly 8 and 11PM. Maybe one final round 12z Saturday. Looks more like 1-3... heavy showers moving through N VA now... maybe a storm in Warrenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Hmm...small hail with this shower. Small as in 1/2 pea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Yeah, we might get it a little earlier, Mostly Cloudy with clouds moving briskly SW-NE in Timonium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Looks pretty intimidating out there. Dark clouds and a little bit of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 squall line now passing through Fairfax near I495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 This certainly seems more impressive than what local forecasters suggested. Could be a fairly heavy shower/storm with this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 44 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks more like 1-3... heavy showers moving through N VA now... maybe a storm in Warrenton agreed. ahead of schedule, although guidance does suggest that while movement of cells along the line will be fairly fast to the NNE, the entire line may be slower to push off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Quantico reported a gust to 47mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 22 minutes ago, H2O said: squall line now passing through Fairfax near I495 Gusty and rainy. Perfect fall line of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 The line is bearing down on my area, and the storms are strengthening, which is nice for a change, since the past few months have been dry. Temp is 72... I wonder how much it will fall once the squall passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Line of storms rolling through right now in Woodlawn, temps dropped really quick it felt like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 Picked up a whopping .06". Glad I don't care at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Ha just looked at radar to see the line approaching home. Currently in DE driving south towards Bethany Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Damn looks like I'm missing out on thunder and lightning at home. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 26 minutes ago, Fozz said: The line is bearing down on my area, and the storms are strengthening, which is nice for a change, since the past few months have been dry. Temp is 72... I wonder how much it will fall once the squall passes through. Pouring.... and the temp plunged to 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 .24 total from that shower. Temp at 63. It was nice and gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, mappy said: Damn looks like I'm missing out on thunder and lightning at home. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I haven't heard any thunder.... just a burst of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I was going to head up to York, PA, at 4pm. I think I'll leave at 6 instead. And will probably get there at the same time as leaving at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Pouring in Baltimore, coming down in sheets . Edit: that was quick. Sky clearing already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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