Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Anyway you slice it, he's still going to be a huge headliner the next several days. Even if it's just fringe effects for the area. 140 MPH winds currently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 We are due for something like this looks like matt's definitely gonna need to be watched closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 00z GFS phased into NE.....Torrential rains for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 omg @ 0z GFS. devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Real nice popcorn and chip run. Feet of rain with National guard called in for good measure. Then no anomalous cold shot follows that will trigger flakes and ruin winter. Win win. Something tells me the unexpected Cat 5 strength is going to butterfly effect the heck out of the future tracks with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS wind map for this storm when it hits our area posted in NYC thread is real freaking unbelievable yeah let's not have that, power out for a month would blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, RedSky said: GFS wind map for this storm when it hits our area posted in NYC thread is real freaking unbelievable yeah let's not have that, power out for a month would blow. I noticed. 925's look good too. I posted this there as well 40 knot onshore winds start kicking up near the coast , even when it's still down by S.C. (925mb) even this is probably underdone, considering no models are acknowledging it's current intensity - and as it nears the area - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Similar type of thing we deal with during winter...phase vs non phase. Models essentially split. GFS most extreme. GFS always used to have a bias of overamplifying or being too quick to phase East Coast Storms. Not sure if this has been corrected yet but keep that in the back of your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Hoping to God none of this verifies for us. A Little rain would be OK. You can keep the flood, and the extreme winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Ugh, after several days of rain and overcast, not great drying conditions during the week, and potential soaking and TS level winds... maybe I should break down and buy a generator. Could be widespread power outages since trees still have a good amount of their leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Euro is ots. It nailed Joaquin last year when every other model had a landfall and capture. Thinking that this will be the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Euro is ots. It nailed Joaquin last year when every other model had a landfall and capture. Thinking that this will be the case again. new run hasn't come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 32 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Euro is ots. It nailed Joaquin last year when every other model had a landfall and capture. Thinking that this will be the case again. Doesn't mean it will be right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 New Euro caved to the GFS by the way. Much further west. It's trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Yeah many hundreds of miles jump west on the euro. Good to have some interesting weather to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I am going to tighten things up around my house this week, I am 35 miles from the coast and had damage from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GGEM went the way of the GFS for 12Z. Similar tracks with a Carolina landfall and then up the NE coast. Wonder if the Euro will follow or continue its OTS scenario. HWRF looks pretty ugly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Thinking this will be a hit. To be honest the east coast is due. Hopefully, a spread out/glancing landfall will limit the severe damage. I saw on Al Roker on NBC at 2:00 pm with a map showing a southern south carolina direct hit on the EURO at cat 3. GFS takes the storm to the southern outer banks at cat 2. ... then again he also called the GFS the U.S.A model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 I heard upton threw Euro run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 50 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: I heard upton threw Euro run out. Then comes the 18z GFS good stuff boring weather begets boring weather but I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 0z GFS half way back to major flooding rain scenario it showed several days ago. Feels like a tuneup for tracking winter storms soon enough. RED ALERT - UKIE is a crushing hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GEM falls somewhere between the GFS flood and the UKIE destructoid run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So basically every model caved to the GFS, other than the Euro going OTS after North Carolina. hmm If this verifies, there's gonna be high impacts for the entire length of I-95. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 What do the ensembles show? Do they have any use in tropical forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like there is essentially two scenarios with this A) system tracks NE after the Carolinas and effects are minimal for our area, basically just some enhanced frontal rains of 1-2" B ) Significant flooding threat like Hazel or Floyd. Not the wind effects like from Hazel because that storm crossed central PA. Floyd tracked right over us or close to the east if I remember right, but a track close to the coast could cause a similar heavy rain scenario. Climate norms favor A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 48 minutes ago, RedSky said: Looks like there is essentially two scenarios with this A) system tracks NE after the Carolinas and effects are minimal for our area, basically just some enhanced frontal rains of 1-2" B ) Significant flooding threat like Hazel or Floyd. Not the wind effects like from Hazel because that storm crossed central PA. Floyd tracked right over us or close to the east if I remember right, but a track close to the coast could cause a similar heavy rain scenario. Climate norms favor A OR option c , it doesn't landfall anywhere and gives us nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: OR option c , it doesn't landfall anywhere and gives us nothing. .......and there's always that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Vendors are going nuts ABC is going full hype. Round and round the cyclone goes where it ends up no one knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 hours ago, BBasile said: .......and there's always that! Oh Christ, no! I'm dying for some action. Summer was a mess....I'll take anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Vendors are going nuts ABC is going full hype. Round and round the cyclone goes where it ends up no one knows! CNN / FoxNews are missing out on ratings. nobody's caring about the VP debate right now.. (or the election in general ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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