Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Lightning evident near Culpepper...decent cell just NW of Warrenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Lightning evident near Culpepper...decent cell just NW of Warrenton. define "decent" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: define "decent" The fact it's finally raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, yoda said: define "decent" Looked to have respectable rainfall rates, probably putting down a good amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Looked to have respectable rainfall rates, probably putting down a good amount of rain. Ah ok... I thought you meant "decent" as a nice storm and maybe severe soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 51 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Only .10" today with most of that coming with a predawn shower here in Round Hill. As expected radar is starting to blossom. Double-checked the sump pump today to make sure it is operational. Not looking forward to the morning commute. 63/62 with now calm winds. Yep.. About just 0.14 for me too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Feels like a late-winter rainstorm right now, what with the warmish evening breezes and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Ah ok... I thought you meant "decent" as a nice storm and maybe severe soon No, but the radar is really looking nice to our south and west down in SW Virginia. I'm sold on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 839 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...VALID 01Z THU SEP 29 2016 - 12Z THU SEP 29 2016... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... 01Z UPDATE... HAVE EXPANDED THE MDT RISK AREA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SOUTHERN EXPANSION DUE PRIMARILY FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS/TRAINING ALONG STATIONARY BNDRY ACRS CNTL/SRN VA WHICH HAS LEAD TO LOCAL RAINFALL REPORTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXTEND NWD ALONG AXIS OF OF HIER MLCAPES FROM CNTL NC NWD WHERE STORMS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS SRN VA. FEEL THE HRRR MODELS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE IN KEEPING HEAVIER RAINS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY/MUCAPES SO FAR AND SHOW A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS NWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD DCA/BWI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LEVEL JET. A SEPARATE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE/ERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS AS WELL BASED ON VAD WIND PROFILES OUT OF LWX WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL E TO SELY FLOW IN THE SFC-85H LAYER. THIS INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW/MSTR FLUX IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH APPROACH OF DEEP UPR LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH POTNL TRAINING ACRS THAT REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREFERRED ERN FOCUS BY THE HRRR AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUNS EARLY IN THE PD..SPREAD REMAINS QUITE HIGH BETWEEN THE HRRR SOLNS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINS. THAT SAID..TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW 6 HR PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OF BETWEEN 25 TO OVER 40 PCT FOR PARTS OF CNTL MD SWD INTO CNTL/ERN VA..SO THE THREAT OF SIGNFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL FLASH FLOODING CERTAINLY HAS SUFFICIENT MODEL SUPPORT FOR A MDT RISK. SULLIVAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Good example of the inflow of Atlantic moisture on low-level winds clashing with the dynamics associated with the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Wouldn't surprise me if that Loudoun County cell gets an SVR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't surprise me if that Loudoun County cell gets an SVR. Just got squared up by it...gusty winds and a lot of lightning. Kinda surprised by it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 These will be highly efficient rainmakers. More impressive than what radar shows probably once you get above 35dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 12k NAM seems as underwhelming as the hrrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Rumbles and legit rain rates if you get under some yellows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 WPC with the first precip meso through 07z. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=710&yr=2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Thunder and steady rain here. 4.63" so far. I have two hours to beat my all-time daily record of 5.02" from 9/29 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Heard it might rain. Any truth to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Heard it might rain. Any truth to this? backloaded per the nam... though a storm delayed might be a storm denied...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Heard it might rain. Any truth to this? HRRR showing a big hit over the WV panhandle. But Stephen citiy will get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 You can see the bands shifting orientation on radar...becoming more S->N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Heard it might rain. Any truth to this? Yeah, December is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Cell just south of Manassas throwing down some good lightning and even has a hail marker on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 There is an absolute lid over top of I-81. This is just ridiculous. N/S bands just training 1 mile east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Training setting up. Lots more activity popping up to our south and fast. Looks like everything is going as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: There is an absolute lid over top of I-81. This is just ridiculous. N/S bands just training 1 mile east of me. Be patient. It's going to rain..too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Looking at 0z 12k and 4K NAM at hr 2/3 is laughable at how far off it is, not even close to current radar, pathetic model. Both are really dry Baltimore and East, but yeah, the models can't get 2 hours out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Still sitting at 0.4" for the whole month as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 It's firing up here now. Loud thunder, occasional lightning and sheets of rain on gusty winds. Radar looks good for these cells to train over this area for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.