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Sept. 28-30 Rainfest Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
447 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...VIRGINIA AND
  WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...
  ANNE ARUNDEL...CALVERT...CARROLL...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
  ALLEGANY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD...CENTRAL AND
  SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY...CHARLES...FREDERICK MD...NORTHERN
  BALTIMORE...NORTHWEST HARFORD...NORTHWEST HOWARD...NORTHWEST
  MONTGOMERY...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEAST HARFORD...SOUTHERN
  BALTIMORE...ST. MARYS AND WASHINGTON. THE DISTRICT OF
  COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...ALBEMARLE...ARLINGTON/FALLS
  CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...AUGUSTA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...
  CLARKE...CULPEPER...EASTERN LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...FREDERICK VA...
   GREENE...KING GEORGE...MADISON...NELSON...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...
   NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...ORANGE...PAGE...PRINCE
  WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...RAPPAHANNOCK...ROCKINGHAM...
  SHENANDOAH...SOUTHERN FAUQUIER...SPOTSYLVANIA...STAFFORD...
  WARREN AND WESTERN LOUDOUN. IN WEST VIRGINIA...BERKELEY...
  EASTERN MINERAL...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON AND MORGAN.

* INTO FRIDAY MORNING

* A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
  ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE AND
  CATOCTIN MOUNTAIN IN MARYLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A DANGEROUS TIME...REQUIRING MORE
THAN THE USUAL AWARENESS...PLANNING AND PREPARATIONS.
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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Hah, looks like the rug is being pulled out from under us...again.  

The problem so far seems to be the stronger storms in VA are robbing energy and clearing out the area behind it. Things can still fill in IMO of course - we'll see how the radar evolves once the storms in VA continue to sweep east. Remember the Flash Flood Watch doesn't even start until 6pm. But yes, radar looks pretty paltry for now. 

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Take a look at the radar as a whole. If you watch the loop you can see the activity in VA that was a part of that line is heading east. But cells and activity that weren't a part of the line are pretty clearly moving S to N. If the bigger cells can clear east and the S to N movement can be more pronounced we will be fine. It's way too early to call a bust. Besides, we knew that as usual some areas would jackpot and others would be lower. 

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VA east of the Potomac and south MD better build an ark. You guys are going to get absolutely destroyed. State of Emergency time. Get to high ground NOW!!!

 

Take a map of the Eastern Seaboard. Draw a line from Danville in VA, northeast thru DCA and Balto. East of that line will jackpot and will jackpot BIG, right up into SE PA. Those regions will see 6 to 10 inches, some places therein will see 8 inches by 6am tomorrow morning! West of that line, 2-4 inches. Localized 6 inches in places west of the line. But the Rainmageddon Axis is east of that line. Its already setting up, and it will obtain thru Saturday.

Just remember, You heard it from The Jebman first.

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