mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 a little closer image of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 What does the Japanese model show? CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the Japanese model show? CRAS? It's pouring kittens. All anime, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 68/63, Lt. Rain, 0.04" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the Japanese model show? CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the Japanese model show? 5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It's pouring kittens. All anime, of course. I don't think those are kittens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: I don't think those are kittens... hard to tell. it's all pixelated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1738.html Guess we shall see how far north the front gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 GFS still dryer than some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, mappy said: GFS still dryer than some of the other models. I do wonder how much of that is it not having the mesoscale stuff down as well as say the NAM. The little higher lollis showing up on that map tell me that it still sees isolated significant higher potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1630 SPC OTLK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN JUST AFTER DARK...WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 O hai der ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND... ANNE ARUNDEL...CALVERT...CARROLL...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY...CHARLES...FREDERICK MD...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...NORTHWEST HARFORD...NORTHWEST HOWARD...NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEAST HARFORD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...ST. MARYS AND WASHINGTON. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA... CLARKE...CULPEPER...EASTERN LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...FREDERICK VA... GREENE...KING GEORGE...MADISON...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...ORANGE...PAGE...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...RAPPAHANNOCK...SHENANDOAH... SOUTHERN FAUQUIER...SPOTSYLVANIA...STAFFORD...WARREN AND WESTERN LOUDOUN. IN WEST VIRGINIA...BERKELEY...EASTERN MINERAL...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON AND MORGAN. * FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR GREATER TOTALS. * HIGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS TO SEE SEVERE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THESE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A DANGEROUS TIME...REQUIRING MORE THAN THE USUAL AWARENESS...PLANNING AND PREPARATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Pouring here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Radar looks horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 15z HRRR run is showing 7-9" for an area from Manassas, through Fairfax, into Montgomery County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Looks like short term HRRR has actually been too dry compared to actual obs, at least in terms of areas of rain. Latest HRRR doesnt get any sustained rain until 5/6pm, when HRRR isn't widespread enough with convection, you know the threat could be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 One of these days there will be a devastating flood in Eskimo Joe's backyard and he's gonna be pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, mappy said: 15z HRRR run is showing 7-9" for an area from Manassas, through Fairfax, into Montgomery County. That sounds fun... I will go get my boat ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, snowfan said: One of these days there will be a devastating flood in Eskimo Joe's backyard and he's gonna be pissed. That's why I bought on a hill with extra insurance. My parent's basement flooded every time it rained in Philly so I am used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 if it starts flooding IMBY at 700 feet, RIP to the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 thunder from that beefy cell passing to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, mappy said: if it starts flooding IMBY at 700 feet, RIP to the rest of you. . Thanks for noting the amounts for Martin earlier . I figure that's still the best place to go by even though I'm in the Fort Howard/North Point area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just picked up 0.62" with 20min. downpour potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, mappy said: if it starts flooding IMBY at 700 feet, RIP to the rest of you. your neighbors hill at 800 ft is what will get you. that being said, I'm at 187. I know where your water will end up. my front door. and it won't knock or ring the doorbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 .05" so far. Well on my way to the .5" event total IMBY. On the plus side, it is cool(ish) and cloudy. Feels great out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, MiddleRvrwx said: . Thanks for noting the amounts for Martin earlier . I figure that's still the best place to go by even though I'm in the Fort Howard/North Point area now. you're welcome, love! Just now, H2O said: your neighbors hill at 800 ft is what will get you. that being said, I'm at 187. I know where your water will end up. my front door. and it won't knock or ring the doorbell. pretty sure my water will go into the bay, long before it reaches your front step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Latest HRRR keeps any severe threat south of I-66. I've noticed in the past that, during setups like this, you see a marked increase in the low level jet after sun down and the warm front tries to push right near DC. This give you an incredibly 2 to 4 hours of rainfall and a few pity TORs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, mappy said: you're welcome, love! pretty sure my water will go into the bay, long before it reaches your front step. no. see what will happen is that your water will get to the bay just in time for Matthew to roll up the bay thereby pushing all that water into my attic. So i am 100% rightwrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, H2O said: no. see what will happen is that your water will get to the bay just in time for Matthew to roll up the bay thereby pushing all that water into my attic. So i am 100% rightwrong fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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