yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Hmmm... 12z NAM at KIAD at 21z this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Lots of long duration, low frequency, rolling thunder with the rain this morning. Quite cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 MY wife drove south in Calvert couunty, lots of really heavy rain, ponding on roads. One road was closed for awhile. Going to be a wet couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: High res is absurd and right over the DC metro. All depends on where the training happens. Through 33 closing in on 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: High res is absurd and right over the DC metro. All depends on where the training happens. Heh, people will be kayaking down Cleveland Park's escalator. That is a 4k'ing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 This is on the SPC webpage on the frontpage - " The threat for severe storms, including tornadoes, has increased for today over parts of Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland, as well as the DC area. As such, we are upgrading that part of the outlook risk. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 It's interesting that the hi-res guidance is really going nuts this evening with torrential rains from convection, while the lower-res guidance isn't as enthused but gets up a drowning Thursday night. Big totals this evening would really set the stage for trouble Thursday night. Seems like the flash flood watch, which starts at 2AM, probably needs to start earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, high risk said: It's interesting that the hi-res guidance is really going nuts this evening with torrential rains from convection, while the lower-res guidance isn't as enthused but gets up a drowning Thursday night. Big totals this evening would really set the stage for trouble Thursday night. Seems like the flash flood watch, which starts at 2AM, probably needs to start earlier. 12z 4km NAM shows this well from this evening into the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just a little bit of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 latest HRRR isn't as robust up north as 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 weatherbell is out to 35 for 4k NAM, two areas have 16" already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Spotter reported 4.55" of rain between 6:15am and 10:00 am in Huntingtown, Calvert County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, mappy said: weatherbell is out to 35 for 4k NAM, two areas have 16" already Most of that is falling in the same time period as the HRRR, which has much more "reasonable" numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Most of that is falling in the same time period as the HRRR, which has much more "reasonable" numbers. I agree. I highly doubt someone sees 16+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, mappy said: weatherbell is out to 35 for 4k NAM, two areas have 16" already dead square over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Light Rain, 66/62 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Spotter reported 4.55" of rain between 6:15am and 10:00 am in Huntingtown, Calvert County. Pretty good indication of how it could go down anywhere over the next 36 hours. Just two training bands over the same area and major flash flooding is on tap regardless of how dry the ground is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: dead square over my house RIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 You can see a band trying to setup from Culpepper NE to Gaithersburg. That might be our zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: dead square over my house you need to change your SN. you don't live in fringeburg anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 *facepalm* this again in Prince Frederick: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Is that Prince Frederick Blvd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: *facepalm* this again in Prince Frederick Probably the same people that tried to drill a headphone jack in their iPhones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 We had our big unexpected 5" rain last year on 9/29, with the major hurricane threat too. I feel like its last year on repeat, only way worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I'm so excited. Yeah rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 WPC - 1500 UTC UPDATE NO CHANGES MADE AT THE MOMENT TO THE EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK. THE ONLY ITEMS OF NOTE TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS THE POTENTIALLY FOR VERY HEAVY TOTALS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL HAVE SHOWN AN AXIS OF 5"+ AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF UP TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THESE REGIONS. EARLIER HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD PRODUCED TOTALS OF 2-4"+ IN A BRIEF PERIOD---INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE HIGHER END TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONEST (1200 UTC) IS STILL A WESTERN OUTLIER WITH ITS MAX QPF BUT HAS TRENDED HEAVIER OVER NW VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL MD---CLOSER TO THE FARTHER EASTWARD MAX AXIS OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I guess I should fire up the generator tonight just to be sure it still works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Not so sure about the tor threat up here. Maybe southern to central VA on north end. This rain developing in the cooler air is going to keep reinforcing the boundary and we have NE winds in DC. Could eventually shift north as flow turns more toward the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 38 minutes ago, H2O said: 12z RGEM Seems to me that the heavy threat is expanding in size and also to the west. Eastcoast will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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