CAPE Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 DOX radar malfunctions way too often, and always when there is an event. Been out for days, but parts are on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Decent low topped supercell(ish) on southern Maryland this morning. Over performing already. Kinda excited I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 HRRR nails the 95 corridor with the 2nd round later this afternoon into evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR nails the 95 corridor with the 2nd round later this afternoon into evening. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, mappy said: And still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 ^ right. that was the end of the run, with rain falling. Sorry, should have specified that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2.13" at my house and still pouring, I've been told... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Sun out near fairfax. lol time to destabilize and get some CAPE to 5000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 With that cutoff, looks like someone with a flooded basement is going to be able to empty the buckets of water into a neighbor's yard who got no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Ohey ...NRN NC TO DC AREA... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE SUPERCELLS. MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. BASED ON FRONTAL MORPHOLOGY DISCUSSED ABOVE...AND LIKELY PATCHWORK RETREAT OF CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIR MASS AMIDST INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA...NRN RIM OF WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS VA PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH THETAE FROM PREFRONTAL CAROLINAS NNEWD ACROSS AT LEAST ERN/CENTRAL VA...PERHAPS INTO ADJOINING PARTS OF MD. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F WILL CHARACTERIZE THAT AIR MASS...ALONG WITH 1.5-1.75-INCH PW AND LOW LCL. BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY...AREAS OF SUSTAINED DIABATIC SFC HEATING ALSO ARE EXPECTED OVER OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH AFTN...BASED ON TRENDS IN IR IMAGERY...RESULTING IN WEAK CINH. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE IN MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...DECREASING IN FRONTAL/ TRANSITION ZONE NWD OVER NRN VA/CENTRAL MD/DC REGION. RELATIVELY BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF ARCHING FRONTAL ZONE...BENEATH RIBBON OF INCREASING/SSWLY 850-MB FLOW. RESULT WILL BE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND RELATED ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...DEEP SHEAR...BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL MODELS SHOW BOTH EFFECTIVE AND FIXED/0-1-KM SRH IN 200-250 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTN. STRENGTHENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT RELATED TO SWD SHIFT OF CYCLONE WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES INTO 40-45-KT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERED CONVECTION...AND A FEW DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE AND CYCLIC SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS 1. CONVECTIVE MODE BECOMES MORE MESSY AND 2. SFC LAYER STABILIZES FROM COMBINATION OF SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AND AREAL SPREAD OF OUTFLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIFT EACH SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH CAROLINAS...RENDERING SVR POTENTIAL MORE ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The 00z ECMWF nailed that area of convection currently ongoing in Maryland. The GFS really didn't have anything until after 18z. The NAM had little to nothing and then develops well West of DC (Thinking it's out to lunch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Yikes, radar estimates showing 2-4" for parts of southern MD just this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 as usual... ian ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Yikes, radar estimates showing 2-4" for parts of southern MD just this morning? 3.11" so far. My wife said our neighborhood streets are flooded and sump pump is having trouble keeping up. Means as we basically got another inch in like 15 mins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Decent thermal gradient at 700mb. Goes from -2 over OH to +6 in Wakefield, VA. Could set up some really efficient rainers. I'm partially intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, mappy said: as usual... ian ftw pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Quote FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 923 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 MDC009-037-281715- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0063.160928T1323Z-160928T1715Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ST. MARYS MD-CALVERT MD- 923 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 115 PM EDT * AT 922 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND IN URBANIZED AREAS. 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN IN THE PRINCE FREDERICK AREA...AND MORE HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS OVER CALVERT AND SAINT MARYS COUNTIES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... LEXINGTON PARK...CHESAPEAKE RANCH ESTATES...LEONARDTOWN...PRINCE FREDERICK...FLAG HARBOR...CALVERT CLIFFS...HALLOWING POINT... CUCKOLD CREEK...GREENWELL STATE PARK...BREEZY POINT...SAINT LEONARD CREEK...SHERIDAN POINT...SAINT CLEMENTS BAY...TOWN CREEK...WICOMICO RIVER...WHITE POINT BEACH...CALIFORNIA...GOLDEN BEACH...LUSBY AND PATUXENT RIVER NAVAL AIR STATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ018&warncounty=MDC009&firewxzone=MDZ018&local_place1=Prince Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 sorry, Mark. I had seen Ian's tweet, must have missed yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: 3.11" so far. My wife said our neighborhood streets are flooded and sump pump is having trouble keeping up. Means as we basically got another inch in like 15 mins... Better you than me. But I don't want to see anyone flooded - it sucks. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I'm liking this setup the more I look at it. Could see another Ellicott City somewhere if things line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 0.13" this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'm liking this setup the more I look at it. Could see another Ellicott City somewhere if things line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, mappy said: sorry, Mark. I had seen Ian's tweet, must have missed yours In all fairness, it looks messy as hell. I'm not banking on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, eurojosh said: Anyone know a good substitute for sandbags? I have a door that always floods under but don't have time to go to Home Depot. Wet towels in a plastic trash bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Corn starch or kitty litter in ziplock bags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I like our chances for a tornado watch this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, yoda said: I like our chances for a tornado watch this afternoon Same. Little kidney bean shape to the storm near Culpepper already. If we can break this low level crud then we might stand a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 954 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will impact the area through Thursday night... bringing the potential for heavy rainfall to the Mid Atlantic. This will gradually move away from the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Complex weather situation is unfolding across the area...as strong upper-level low is dropping southward into the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, frontal boundary is across southern VA...where it will remain through much of today. Very challenging forecast over the next couple of days. It`s interesting to see how much the atmosphere moistened up in the 12 hours betweeen the 00Z and 12Z IAD sounding. This increase in moisture has led to some very heavy ranifall across Lower Southern Maryland - radar estimates of over 4" in 3 hours has led to the issuance of a flood warning for Calvert and St. Marys Counties. Training storms could lead to some flooding issues later today. Another factor with the sounding/VWP is the wind field - low level winds are from the east...turning abruptly to the southwest above 6000 feet. Turning in the atmosphere has led SPC to put the CWA east of the Blue Ridge at a 5% tornado risk. Limiting factor would be cloud cover..but given we had to issue severe warnings at 550 am this morning implies that there is energy in the atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Heaviest rain expected later tonight into Friday morning as strong upslope flow (up to 50 kts out of SE) and high precipitable water transport set up over the area (axis of heaviest rainfall expected over our area). Flash Flood watch in good shape...as repetitive bouts of moderate-to-heavy rain could eventually saturate the dry soils and lead to runoff concerns. Storm total QPF still greater than 3 inches over a large area...with the potential for higher totals in localized areas. Despite the weak instability on Thursday...strong wind field remains...so could also be a few stronger storms with wind/hail threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z 12k nam looks quite west with the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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