Sept. 28-30 Rainfest Obs/Disc

[CAPE]

From Mount Holly AFD-

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
**stormy**

Please do not [under]estimate the power of this event for tonight and
Friday morning! A strong easterly gale together with a pwat axis
of almost 2 inches and max inflow almost coincidentally
aligned nw-se through De BAY this evening and crossing normal to the
coastal front or inverted trough developed by the cold air damming
of the past 24 hours, will result in considerable flooding, both
freshwater and tidal.

Along and north of I-78...periods of rain and drizzle

FCST basis: 50/50 blended 12z/gfs/nam mos. Thunder probably south
and east of PHL as per the modeled negative SWI.

FFA expanded into SNJ. EC is probably going to be correct with max
rainfall from this entire event in our area. We are thinking storm
totals widespread 3-6" delmarva with isolated 1 foot or even more
over Sussex County DE. For the new watch area...widespread 2-4
expected with at least isolated 6+ close to DE Bay and the
Atlantic coast. When i see EC synoptic scale qpf of 6"...my mind
thinks potential 9. I`m not saying 9 but if the EC pans out...highly
efficient rains with embedded convection can yield more than
model guidance. We realize this is the only model guidance with
this much qpf. We also realize that model guidance has been
focused west of our area and we`re realizing quite a bit more than
modeled.

[Jebman]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From Mount Holly AFD-

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
**stormy**

Please do not [under]estimate the power of this event for tonight and
Friday morning! A strong easterly gale together with a pwat axis
of almost 2 inches and max inflow almost coincidentally
aligned nw-se through De BAY this evening and crossing normal to the
coastal front or inverted trough developed by the cold air damming
of the past 24 hours, will result in considerable flooding, both
freshwater and tidal.

Along and north of I-78...periods of rain and drizzle

FCST basis: 50/50 blended 12z/gfs/nam mos. Thunder probably south
and east of PHL as per the modeled negative SWI.

FFA expanded into SNJ. EC is probably going to be correct with max
rainfall from this entire event in our area. We are thinking storm
totals widespread 3-6" delmarva with isolated 1 foot or even more
over Sussex County DE. For the new watch area...widespread 2-4
expected with at least isolated 6+ close to DE Bay and the
Atlantic coast. When i see EC synoptic scale qpf of 6"...my mind
thinks potential 9. I`m not saying 9 but if the EC pans out...highly
efficient rains with embedded convection can yield more than
model guidance. We realize this is the only model guidance with
this much qpf. We also realize that model guidance has been
focused west of our area and we`re realizing quite a bit more than
modeled.

Damn rain thieves. Now I have to put up with high humidity and dark clouds while DE gets to have all the fun. I am sick and tired of supplying all the damn moisture so Del weenies can enjoy the flooding. Thats OUR rain! The models gave it to the DC region, and Del stole it!

[Prestige Worldwide]

Been pouring rain all day in Lewes. Weather spotter a few miles from here reported over 10 inches in the last 24 hours. Looks like a lot more still on its way. If only it were snow 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The funny part is today was billed as the catastrophe for southern MD and its been a nice, cloudy fall day, while yesterday was supposed to be light rain but turned into a surprise 5 inches. I hope someone doesn't post a rain map for both days combined and call it a model victory though. 

Edit: also its good to see Jebman back, I hope you stick around for the winter!

[Stormpc]

Ive been stuck at 3.55 since dawn. Wind has dried the sidewalks and roadway here. Can barely tell it rained unless you walk in the grass. Even the deck is dry. Can't buy drizzle or a Sprinkle in my location. Did pretty well considering. Though. Brisk wind is surprising

[CAPE]

Rain has moved back in from the east in the past hour. Moderate atm, and still windy.

[weatherCCB]

 

Radar looks to be filling in the the se.

might be another round of mod. Rain on the way

[WxUSAF]

2.53" storm total.  

[87storms]

Radar looks better than I expected.  Gonna rain all night, basically.

[EastCoast NPZ]

4.0" total.  3.9" since midnight.

[CAPE]

Deluge in this squall line moving in from the SE. Very windy. Surprised there is no thunder. Pretty impressive.

[Ian]

This is a huge and crushing storm still but it's missing the core of the weenie population so people will remember it as a bust. Not sure there's much utility in a map with 8" of rain from NWS in an event like this. Gotta be a better way.

[Ian]

3 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Bust

haha nice name/profile pic

[Superstorm]

haha nice name/profile pic

Lmao!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SlowerLowerDE]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The funny part is today was billed as the catastrophe for southern MD and its been a nice, cloudy fall day, while yesterday was supposed to be light rain but turned into a surprise 5 inches. I hope someone doesn't post a rain map for both days combined and call it a model victory though. 

Edit: also its good to see Jebman back, I hope you stick around for the winter!

This is turning into a serious event for the Delmarva.  The coastal areas have gale force winds, moderate tidal flooding and flash flooding.  The Broadkill river is over it's banks and the town of Milton has shut down because of that flooding.  The Nanticoke river is expected to go over it's flood stage of 8 feet tonight.  That may flood Bridgeville and other areas.  Crisfield Md. Is flooded.  We had three area house fires last night from lightening strikes.  NWS expects 12 inches of rain before we are through with this.  Numerous roads are flooded.  

Last week I was in OBX.  We got 12 to 15 inches of rain there.  I am sick of rain.  I may build an ark if it stops raining long enough.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, SlowerLowerDE said:

This is turning into a serious event for the Delmarva.  The coastal areas have gale force winds, moderate tidal flooding and flash flooding.  The Broadkill river is over it's banks and the town of Milton has shut down because of that flooding.  The Nanticoke river is expected to go over it's flood stage of 8 feet tonight.  That may flood Bridgeville and other areas.  Crisfield Md. Is flooded.  We had three area house fires last night from lightening strikes.  NWS expects 12 inches of rain before we are through with this.  Numerous roads are flooded.  

Last week I was in OBX.  We got 12 to 15 inches of rain there.  I am sick of rain.  I may build an ark if it stops raining long enough.

But very few here really care because they are focused on the DC bust.

[snowfan]

Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, snowfan said:

Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. 

I noticed that. I heard rain on the roof and was kinda surprised because I didn't see much on radar. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I care

This has been a big time event for much of the region--DC got dry slotted but when isn't that the case lol. Between lower MD seeing a lot of rain yesterday, the Delmarva today, and EC NPZ getting big rain, this event more than produced in spots. I've been impressed with the wind, even this far inland. Felt like tropical on the way to work this morning and like a warm winter storm when I left. Stay safe!

I know you do, and others do as well. I said it mostly in jest. I live pretty close to that area so it feels more local to me. I am closing in on 2" but nothing like what has occurred to my SE. I am surprised by the wind though- lots of small limbs and tree debris down on my property. Quite squally with the moderate showers moving through.

[smokeybandit]

26 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I noticed that. I heard rain on the roof and was kinda surprised because I didn't see much on radar. 

Stealth rain!

[SlowerLowerDE]

Thanks for all the sweet posts.  I know that you folks care.  We are the often forgotten area of this sub forum.  I do feel for the people who needed rain because we often get drought in this area and that is hard too.  I hope Mother Nature takes plenty of this rain their way.

[WEATHER53]

Even though I downplayed this its a major rain event for everyone except a 20 mile radius from the monument

get just 10 miles se of beltway and 5"+ is commonplace. That is not a bust even if Dc proper did not get nailed  

[mattie g]

0.25" since 6:45 am for something along the lines of 3.10" over the last three days (too lazy to go back and search my posts for recent measurements!). That's not too bad, all things considered.

[GramaxRefugee]

1.47" past 24 hours

 

[Ian]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. 

It finally started raining once they cancelled the flash flood watch. Radar looks decent.. growing rain area.

[dailylurker]

Pouring here suddenly. Looks like heavy rain is blossoming right over me. Radar looks interesting. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Even the light returns that are moving over the area are putting down decent rates. 

Commented on this very thing last night

[gymengineer]

Have other people noticed how frequently we have coastal flooding now for the bay counties and for DC? It's like once a month or even more frequently nowadays that we see at least a coastal flood advisory.

It seemed like a no-brainer that we would see moderate coastal flooding in parts of the area with the extended easterly winds, and that's what's been forecast now for the next couple of cycles from DC to NJ.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Moderate rain here again.  I believe 4.1" in one day would be the most I've ever recorded here, eclipsing an event in early May 2011 (that flooded my basement).  Sandy dumped 6"+ (if you can trust a rain gauge in 50 mph winds), but that was over a 2-day span.  I might be able to do it.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, SlowerLowerDE said:

This is turning into a serious event for the Delmarva.  The coastal areas have gale force winds, moderate tidal flooding and flash flooding.  The Broadkill river is over it's banks and the town of Milton has shut down because of that flooding.  The Nanticoke river is expected to go over it's flood stage of 8 feet tonight.  That may flood Bridgeville and other areas.  Crisfield Md. Is flooded.  We had three area house fires last night from lightening strikes.  NWS expects 12 inches of rain before we are through with this.  Numerous roads are flooded.  

Last week I was in OBX.  We got 12 to 15 inches of rain there.  I am sick of rain.  I may build an ark if it stops raining long enough.

Believe me, I care about you guys. I'm the one who made the thread for the lower shore people in the first place. I'm just saying this was a poorly modeled event that could be easily spun with a rainfall map to make it look like a win. Stay safe.