Sept. 28-30 Rainfest Obs/Disc

[EastCoast NPZ]

Radar showing a decent-looking cell bulls-eyeing MBY.  Don't see that often.  I think this drought is officially busted.  

[MN Transplant]

HRRR seems to want to develop a batch of storms south of DC around noon and then bring them through. 

[osfan24]

Big bust so far. Nothing really happened overnight, and then that line that looked like it might train for a few hours and be pretty intense is moving through very quickly and weakening. Some huge busts in the models. Looks like GFS might be the winner. I don't think much else is forecasted once this line goes through.

[North Balti Zen]

Finally under a legit yellow in Balt City - may be enough here to get the storm totals up to a few inches.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Big bust so far. Nothing really happened overnight, and then that line that looked like it might train for a few hours and be pretty intense is moving through very quickly and weakening. Some huge busts in the models. Looks like GFS might be the winner. I don't think much else is forecasted once this line goes through.

Yea, this is a total fail unless something else develops and smacks people all at once.  Really pathetic event.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, this is a total fail unless something else develops and smacks people all at once.  Really pathetic event.

We'll see how it goes but the gfs was super consistent with a general 2-4" throughout the region for multiple runs in a row. It never had crazy max stripes. I have to be honest, the gfs/gefs has been doing really well for our yards this summer in general. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

5.02" yesterday which ties my all-time daily rain record.

Today has been kinda meh though- only 0.64" and most of that was in the middle of the night. Light rain on and off now.

[H2O]

1.31" so far.  I'm not sad or disappointed.  I like not having a houseboat where I can swim with manatees off my back porch.

[mattie g]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll see how it goes but the gfs was super consistent with a general 2-4" throughout the region for multiple runs in a row. It never had crazy max stripes. I have to be honest, the gfs/gefs has been doing really well for our yards this summer in general. 

I was just thinking the same thing.

Of course, you know that 24 hours out it's going to show us getting 8-10" of cold powder for the Fat Man's sleigh to glide on, only for that energy to be robbed by thunderstorms in Richmond and we end with .04" of snizzle.

[smokeybandit]

It's been a good droughtbusting rain.  Nothing overly heavy that it just immediately heads for the gutters.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Looks about right. Total event since yesterday morning.

I'm right in that yellow/orange streak to the ne of Winchester.  I've had enough. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'll glady take all the rain you folks don't want.  Send it to Montgomery.

[Mrs.J]

.53" yesterday

1.72" so far today

[midatlanticweather]

Pretty cool to see the radar change orientation of the flow on the longer loops. 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-96

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

$20 says we get a pivot and a nice long band working in off the ocean later this afternoon

[mappy]

2.01" at home after the last batch came through.


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[yoda]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

$20 says we get a pivot and a nice long band working in off the ocean later this afternoon

hmmm.... I want some storms with that please

[Grothar of Herndon]

1.63" storm total in Herndon as of 10 am this morning

[snowfan]

That is some heavy rain working its way onshore. Also, new stuff firing up W/SW of DC. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Quote

000
FXUS61 KLWX 291416
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low over Kentucky through Friday will lift northward
across the Great Lakes over the weekend. Persistent onshore flow
and periods of heavy rain will occur across the Mid-Atlantic
through Friday. The low is forecast to track to the northeast late
in the weekend and into early next week. High pressure will build into
the area during the first part of the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Where bands of rain have set up there have been some totals of
over 4" since Wednedsay morning. Other places have received
significantly less. Low level easterly flow is ongoing according
to both the IAD and DOV VWP's. A possible reason that more heavier
rain has not transported into the Mid Atlantic may be the
convection that has formed off the Delmarva. This is more often
seen on southerly flow when a line of storms develops over the
Panhandle of FL which shuts off heavy rainfall further north.

With that in mind we remain concerned about the next 24 hours.
In the short term our eyes are on a band over eastern NC which is
tracking slowly to the north. If this reaches I-95/Beltway at rush
hour this would prove problematic.

And persistent low level easterly flow means we have to keep our
guard up for bands of heavy rainfall which could be aided by an
upslope component.

SPC currently has SW portion of CWA in a marginal risk. While ML
CAPE remains relatively poor (At best 1000 J/KG), effective bulk
shear values AOA 40 kts suggest transient supercell structures are
possible across the marginal risk area...with isolated hail/wind
threats. Furthermore, nearby frontal boundary and strongly backed
low-level flow suggest an isolated tornado is also possible across
the far southwest.

 

[North Balti Zen]

Still solid rain shield downtown Baltimore.


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[NinjaWarrior2]

2.48" so far in Perry Hall, MD.

[yoda]

With that in mind we remain concerned about the next 24 hours.
In the short term our eyes are on a band over eastern NC which is
tracking slowly to the north. If this reaches I-95/Beltway at rush
hour this would prove problematic.

 

Not sure I really follow this from the updated morning AFD... it doesn't look really interesting down in NC and define "problematic"... as in 2-3" per hour rates?

[yoda]

12z RGEM insists on developing a major band of rain by 18z

[mitchnick]

So once the u/l low in KY gets further south, when does it change to snow?

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

So once the u/l low is KY gets further south, when does it change to snow?

 

Only west of the fall line. Sorry Mitch. I'll post pics though

[Ian]

Failboat

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

With that in mind we remain concerned about the next 24 hours.
In the short term our eyes are on a band over eastern NC which is
tracking slowly to the north. If this reaches I-95/Beltway at rush
hour this would prove problematic.

 

Not sure I really follow this from the updated morning AFD... it doesn't look really interesting down in NC and define "problematic"... as in 2-3" per hour rates?

The concern is based off the activity near the coast rotating inland and/or another band forming.

[Sparky]

.88 yesterday

1.25 today

2.13 so far

[yoda]

Well this can't be right...