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Sept. 28-30 Rainfest Obs/Disc

Ellinwood

By Ellinwood,
in Mid Atlantic

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said:

Looking at 0z 12k and 4K NAM at hr 2/3 is laughable at how far off it is, not even close to current radar, pathetic model. Both are really dry Baltimore and East, but yeah, the models can't get 2 hours out right.

    Chill out.   The NAM doesn't assimilate radar reflectivity, so it will often miss the initial state, especially if there is a convective element to the precip.   The GFS is often the same.   The next version of the NAM does assimilate radar reflectivity and has a 6-hr spinup cycle with hourly updates, and its starting point will be much better.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

As can be seen on radar as of midnight, the areas to the east of the Potomac are getting waterboarded, and have been getting waterboarded all day and will get it all night and thru tomorrow. Another area of rain will persist  near the mountains. This will also mercilessly flood the mountains thru Friday.

Dale City is in between and shall remain so throughout most of the event. We have seen drizzle and a few brief moderate showers thus far. I have barely an eighth of an inch of rain in my raingage.

I expect to pick up another eighth to a quarter of an inch of additional rain thru noon on the 29th.. Toward the Bay it will be an entirely different story: Over a foot of rain, possible even more overnight into Friday will obtain as frantic water rescues have to performed from Danville to LaPlata to well east of DC and Baltimore.

This will become known as the Eastern Shore Rainstorm of 2016. The mountains will have orographic forcing and will see 4 to 8 inches thru Sunday.

For Dale City, I expect one to perhaps one and a half inches of rain thru late Saturday. We will be spared the crazy rain amounts that will be common farther east, but we will have to contend with water from the mountains moving downstream. Other than that, if  you live east of the mountains but west of a line stretching from Danville to Dale City to DC to Baltimore, you will see no more than 1 to 2 inches tops from this. Because of the antecedent dry conditions, we wont even have runoff. if you live in southern MD or in extreme eastern VA, head for areas west of I 95 where there will be much less rain.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted

In and out of some good rains.  Should be asleep, but don't want to miss the excitement.  Good rain here is almost as rare as snow. 

* thunder now also.

** Nice N/S oriented train of heavy precip headed this way, around Front Royal and extending south.  Could be juicy for a while here.  Thunder much closer now and rain intensity increasing.

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