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WxChallenge 2016-2017


Mallow

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11 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Man the temp is falling off the table. Could really get down there tonight. Our high lows for today will certainly be smashed once again.

Agreed... HRRR now says it gets down to 39F by 6z tonight. Would put me in 2nd place for Cat2 forecasters of that verifies

My #'s for tomorrow 74/35/10/0.00

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3 hours ago, Mallow said:

I'm thoroughly confused by the low. They've fallen to their dew points and pushed them down with stronger winds or more clouds before, but they just got completely stuck last night?

 

I honestly do not get this city with their lows I lost almost 10 points because of a minor model mistake. I'm sure people lost points too because of the erroneous highs from the first day and yesterday. Quite a city I will say but I'm ready to just drop it and move on

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3 hours ago, Mallow said:

I'm thoroughly confused by the low. They've fallen to their dew points and pushed them down with stronger winds or more clouds before, but they just got completely stuck last night?

Seems quite strange to me as well. This location seems weird overall.

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12 minutes ago, phil882 said:

Looks like Mallow will pick up a Cat2 trophy with the latest obs. I'm still waiting for the winds to increase (still a big ? right now).

My Day8 #'s 78/37/12/0.00

Definitely rooting for those higher winds tonight! ^_^ 

LLJ will be a factor, but how much will mix down to the surface? The stronger LLJ last week had no problem affecting the surface, but I don't know how this weaker one will play out.

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Just now, Mallow said:

Definitely rooting for those higher winds tonight! ^_^ 

It's going to be really close. I'm still pretty worried that the boundary layer will decouple quickly like the last few nights and we can't really take advantage of the increasing winds in the LLJ due to the increased stability. Best hope in my opinion is that we start getting some marginal gusts in the next couple of hours as the stronger winds slowly start to work into the deep mixed layer.

NAM_WIND2.png

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3 minutes ago, phil882 said:

It's going to be really close. I'm still pretty worried that the boundary layer will decouple quickly like the last few nights and we can't really take advantage of the increasing winds in the LLJ due to the increased stability. Best hope in my opinion is that we start getting some marginal gusts in the next couple of hours as the stronger winds slowly start to work into the deep mixed layer.

 

Just reported an 11kt wind. Seems like with the potential picking up over the next several hours, we should at least get that 12kt you're looking for.

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