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WxChallenge 2016-2017


Mallow

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49 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Lots of clouds coming in soon according to satellite imagery. Add in those winds, and that should hopefully keep the low up there.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting the clouds to this extent but if it works in my favor I'll take it. Only 10 PM CT though so going to be a long night.

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72/43/16 

Really didn't see any reason to deviate from guidance. I'll be interested to see if the clouds coming in from the southwest have any effect on the low but it seems they're sort of on the edge of them so I'm guessing they won't play too big of a role. I am also in no position to take any more risks after last week's disaster and how poorly I did in Key West.

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73/45/17

 

Figured a slightly higher low then models showed which seemed to be around 42-44. Clouds moving in kept me on the warmer side even with the front passing but am worried it can go lower. Nam showed what seemed like scattered to broken conditions tonight and GFS kinda surprised me with temps staying around 48-50.

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69/39/15/0.

Obviously both the max/min are well below consensus. Took the RAP/HRRR combo which has been working very well lately. High clouds should stay out of the way tonight before spreading back in tomorrow. My thought process was that these high clouds should be able to keep temperatures down, although I may have been overly aggressive on killing the high. I wanted to change to 70 or 71 but wasn't near a computer so I'm stuck with 69F. 

Sitting top 25 for now, hopefully I stay in the top 100!

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Even I wasn't expecting 60F at 17z. Their dew point sensor is down right now so hopefully its reliable data. Also looks like some pretty thick cirrus overhead right now. If they can get back into the thinner clouds they should rocket past 70, but they'll need those clouds to clear pretty quickly. 

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