so_whats_happening Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Without the low it was an ok day the high managed to get a little warmer. Now really trying to buckle down with the low and high. This place looks like it will give people a run for their money on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 Went out on a limb for tomorrow. 84/41/19. 43 degree diurnal range. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Well, this place has been an unmitigated disaster for me so far. I have no idea how I'm like two SD below consensus but whatever. 82/41/20 Given what happened with the low last night, felt it would be prudent to take a shot at another cold low with clear skies and relatively calm winds. However, worried about the high clouds streaming in from the north but hoping the ridge will build in an allow them to clear. Also went above guidance for the high with strong SW flow and mostly sunny skies tomorrow. Should be a big diurnal swing with the rapidly warming air mass. NAM BUFKIT shows 850s approaching 20C! I tried to switch my high to 83 but I was late by two seconds. BUFKIT showed winds in the 18-20 kt range in the BL so going with the USL again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 83/46/21/0 HRRR actually had a decent handle yesterday (IIRC around a 44/45 low), and I'm fairly confident that it will be warmer. Tomorrow should mix down temperatures about 4-5C warmer than today, so reasonable assumption they'll hit at least low 80s. Hopefully the low actually cooperates today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 83/40/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 31 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Well, this place has been an unmitigated disaster for me so far. I have no idea how I'm like two SD below consensus but whatever. 82/41/20 Given what happened with the low last night, felt it would be prudent to take a shot at another cold low with clear skies and relatively calm winds. However, worried about the high clouds streaming in from the north but hoping the ridge will build in an allow them to clear. Also went above guidance for the high with strong SW flow and mostly sunny skies tomorrow. Should be a big diurnal swing with the rapidly warming air mass. NAM BUFKIT shows 850s approaching 20C! I tried to switch my high to 83 but I was late by two seconds. BUFKIT showed winds in the 18-20 kt range in the BL so going with the USL again. Ugh, I got so absorbed in the models I didn't even check the satellite. I'm now quite worried about those high clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Mallow said: Ugh, I got so absorbed in the models I didn't even check the satellite. I'm now quite worried about those high clouds. Yeah, it makes me worried MOS is going to be correct with 44-46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I went for the cold low, I also didn't look at the satellite: 83/41/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 83/44/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 84/46/20/0 Had the same thinking as AppsRunner. Certainly risky business if the low decides to bottom out like the last two nights though. I think the low will probably be lower than what I have, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Clouds not doing much so far. Running 13 degrees colder than yesterday. Might be able to get to the low-40s early before the WAA really starts to kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Not looking good for those of us who went colder. Temp up to 51 this hour from 50 the previous two obs. with a batch of pretty thick looking clouds overhead. Plus the wind is out of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 84/42/21 HRRR still shows rather cool conditions setting in the next few hours. If anything 43 sounds rather nice again and am kinda kicking myself that I should have went to even 85 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 11 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: Yeah, it makes me worried MOS is going to be correct with 44-46. 11 hours ago, AppsRunner said: 83/46/21/0 HRRR actually had a decent handle yesterday (IIRC around a 44/45 low), and I'm fairly confident that it will be warmer. Tomorrow should mix down temperatures about 4-5C warmer than today, so reasonable assumption they'll hit at least low 80s. Hopefully the low actually cooperates today. Good call on the low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Good call on the low! Thanks! Those high clouds came in just soon enough to stop the temperature from bleeding down to the low 40s. Now it's time to watch how high we go today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 oh man that hurt a bit lol hope to get the high and the wind to hold my spot Having a low like that has given me a little more confidence in the high, so thats a positive, hoping some clouds do not ruin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 Dammit, these high clouds are going to screw over those of us with a high high big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 82/46/23 we'll see how the high and wind go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, OHweather said: 82/46/23 we'll see how the high and wind go Depending on the specifics of the max and wind, we could theoretically be in a tie at the end of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Just now, AppsRunner said: Depending on the specifics of the max and wind, we could theoretically be in a tie at the end of the day! That would be exciting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Ugh, well with the high clouds around I'm guessing the high will be in the 77-79 range. I think I'm ready for the next city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Latest ob has GRI at 76. Think those higher highs can still be achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 41 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Latest ob has GRI at 76. Think those higher highs can still be achieved. It's 80 now so looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 The high clouds haven't done much to slow down the solar heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Went 84/54/19 for tomorrow figured if it didn't do it today better chance tomorrow. Low warmer worried of a possibility of lower low but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 I went out on a limb with the low again. The HRRR seems to be doing really well with this city. So I went 85/57/17/0. Some high clouds still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2016 Author Share Posted October 28, 2016 84/55/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 85/57/19/0. HRRR/RAP/RGEM combo again. Hoping high clouds after 6z can keep them warm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 87/58/17 It was nice to see the high got into the low 80s but I was disappointed that the wind was only 17 kts. I basically went all in for tomorrow with a warm high/low in hopes of gaining the spots I lost today. If it doesn't pan out I'll be buried heading into week 2. Risked them mixing 21.5C 850s despite the NAM showing a pretty shallow mixed layer that only extended to maybe 885 mb or so. The profile also showed high clouds but I didn't feel too worried about them since they didn't seem to have much of an effect today. Also hoping southerlies will keep the temps. up tonight but so far that doesn't look too good. Went under the USL for wind since today's winds didn't pan out and with a similar setup I figured winds should be identical to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 29 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: 87/58/17 It was nice to see the high got into the low 80s but I was disappointed that the wind was only 17 kts. I basically went all in for tomorrow with a warm high/low in hopes of gaining the spots I lost today. If it doesn't pan out I'll be buried heading into week 2. Risked them mixing 21.5C 850s despite the NAM showing a pretty shallow mixed layer that only extended to maybe 885 mb or so. The profile also showed high clouds but I didn't feel too worried about them since they didn't seem to have much of an effect today. Also hoping southerlies will keep the temps. up tonight but so far that doesn't look too good. Went under the USL for wind since today's winds didn't pan out and with a similar setup I figured winds should be identical to today. Lots of clouds coming in soon according to satellite imagery. Add in those winds, and that should hopefully keep the low up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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