LoveSN+ Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Went 86/61/12/0. Seems like dew points and temps are running higher than modeled, which I was I went high on the low. Will have to wait and see if it pays off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 13 hours ago, Mallow said: 84/59/14 I actually meant to drop my low down to 57F, but I forgot that I hadn't done that yet, so I'm stuck with my 59F. Argh, really kicking myself now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 84/58/15 for today. Impressed that it got to 55 last night. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2016 Author Share Posted October 19, 2016 81/61/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 82/59/8/0 Hoping they can mix about as well as they did today with 850s about 1C cooler. Took a shot at a cooler low which I am thinking would occur at 06z tomorrow (18z MOS shows it happening tonight?) night as winds shift around to the NE and they funnel in some cooler air but without much in the way of a gradient it might be tough to do especially if clouds move in ahead of the OH Valley low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 83/59/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 83/59/14 Not sure why 14 was put but gotta deal with it was shooting for 10knots. Temps already have hit 80-81 have at least another 3 hours of heating the higher the temp the better it is and helps me with that wind lol I'm worried about the lows it will come down right to 6z for that and finally we get into some interesting weather Thursday into friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 Going out on a shaky limb tomorrow... 81/59/15/0.11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 76/59/12/0.14 Big bust potential on everything but the low. It'll be incredibly tough for me to hold onto my #1 ranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 77/57/10/0.08 A very rushed forecast, didn't even get a chance to look at BUFKIT but based on what I saw on the NAM profile just now I like Mallow's risk on the high. Definitely would've gone higher on the winds had I seen it too. I'm interested to see if they can drop below guidance as it would seem the thick cloud deck isn't progressing the way that MAV/MET show although MET has a better handle as it doesn't show OVC until 06z. However, with dews creeping up I'm not really expecting it to get below 60F tonight so definitely the potential for a disaster tomorrow pending the high and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 80/57/14/0.16 Saw potential for high to fail but with the storm going west and no real cold low level flow I don't think fog/CAD should be too much of an issue but then that brings up the rain. I'm thinking we get a nice quick overrunning with the warm front might be possibly heavy due to some convection that might try to get going. Also with the possibility of lower dews around the potential is there for Temps to drop once precip starts, I'm thinking 57 was kinda low but we will see was thinking 59 at first. Either a big day or big bust lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 80/61/15/0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 Wishing I went with 0 rain... I did consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Mallow said: Wishing I went with 0 rain... I did consider it. Yea same but it also looked really good from models perspective oh well thankfully I feel the warmer Temps are something. Low meh Somehow though even if we don't manage rain but still get up to 80 area I somehow can still move up today weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 20 hours ago, Mallow said: Going out on a shaky limb tomorrow... 81/59/15/0.11 So far today, 80/63/14/0 Glad I went out on a limb today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Yeah, the lack of rain hurt me a little...but the temps and wind worked out great. This is more fun than Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Yea no rain hurt today and low but everything else was good still in the top 200 which is cool Went all out for tomorrow 74/51/19/0.27 I'm not sure how the rain threat will hold up some are showing quite a decent amount of rain (.50") some are showing almost none. Thought temp would rise a little with possibly some breaks before the front, winds should start at night as well. Hoping for below 100 by the end but will take under 200 so long as tomorrow isn't crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 77/54/25/0.40" With a sharp negatively tilted trough went with the more amplified/slower models (NAM and Euro), which both suggested mid-upper 70s for highs. Strong dynamics and some CAPE suggests elevated potential for a forced squall line along the front so went high on the wind and a little higher on precip. Even if this forced squall line doesn't work out, that's a strong pressure gradient tomorrow evening in a CAA regime, so I think winds could get pretty high either way. Went a little warmer than the raw models for the 6z low tomorrow night on a whim. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 minute ago, OHweather said: 77/54/25/0.40" With a sharp negatively tilted trough went with the more amplified/slower models (NAM and Euro), which both suggested mid-upper 70s for highs. Strong dynamics and some CAPE suggests elevated potential for a forced squall line along the front so went high on the wind and a little higher on precip. Even if this forced squall line doesn't work out, that's a strong pressure gradient tomorrow evening in a CAA regime, so I think winds could get pretty high either way. Went a little warmer than the raw models for the 6z low tomorrow night on a whim. We'll see. Man makes mine not quite out on a limb lol I saw potential for higher winds and precip but didn't think it would hold enough for me to bite. Big thing for me to worry about was the high the low may or may not depends on the strength of the car. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 As predicted, I don't have #1 ranking anymore. 75/51/21/0.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 75/53/23/0.23 Well I'll start off with precip. for a change and just say it's a WAG The trend seemed to be for the heaviest precip. to miss to the west but who knows. Sided with warmer guidance on high especially given trends last couple of days. Figured they could spike to mid 70s right before front goes through. I had 77 originally but felt that might be a little too aggressive. The low will be above 50 I think because they downslope on NW flow and winds will be strong with NAM BUFKIT depicting 20-25 kt winds only 500 feet AGL. I was shocked to see how low the USL was for winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 76/50/21/0.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 75/52/19/0.25 for today. Already busting low on the high. Gosh Dang it. Currently in a dead heat tie with consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Line of convection formed. Completely missed the ASOS. Dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Rain doing its best to miss MDT. What a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Ha it's been raining real good over here in lancaster so far. Really was hoping for a little bit more. Now I have to depend on the low to help me out more lol Can't complain though tough but fair city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 After a rough start in Harrisburg, I had a reasonably strong second week, especially days 7 and 8, and ended up salvaging a half-decent city out of it. On to Grand Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Finished 37th overall...was a fun city even though I was a little cranky on day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Time to take our talents to Grand Island, Nebraska! Good luck and let it torch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Another awesome first day went 76/48/19/0.02 this place looks to sit kinda in a bowl/valley. I went higher max then some models were showing considering strong WAA ahead of the SLP coming out of the rockies, also from 850's looks like they could max around 77 area. Might have to contend with some low clouds with what looks like a nice moisture flux with the WAA in the early AM. Im thinking they stay mostly dry it is possible a quick shower pushes through hence the 0.02. Im worried about the low. I can see how this could go down to even 46 tonight but am too hesitant to go that low with clouds increasing as the night goes on. Winds should be pretty strong I can see also how those could go higher, not really sure about how this region is with winds. Overall tried to do a middle ground forecast. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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