H2Otown_WX Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 68/43/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 Went out on a limb with the low, probably a bad call 68/45/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 70/45/7 High was a bit above guidance today, thinking the same tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 68/45/6 A little worried about the low but think it should be reasonable. High was thinking 69 but went a little lower since today didnt quite live up to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 69/44/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Went with a rather aggressive forecast of 70/46/19/0.01" Temperatures always seem to overperform in strong WAA immediately ahead of a cold front, and the rain looks to really diminish as it approaches which seems to help the odds of temps getting warmer. Rain will probably be light, likely under 0.05" and I can foresee how they get a trace or 0. BL average winds near the time of the frontal passage will increase to around 20 knots, and they may mix better than modeled if temps end up a little warmer than the models, so I went high on the winds. Biggest question mark is the low...the CAA is pretty strong, but the winds likely won't decouple much before 6z so it'll be interesting to see how much they drop tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 70/40/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 69/46/18/0 The air mass will be about 1.5C warmer than today per NAM BUFKIT 925 mb temps. so I figure they should get to where they got today at the very least but wouldn't be surprised if they get a bit higher with the WAA. The low is tricky, as 06z lows usually are. The GFS seemed to indicate a gradual drop in Td's tomorrow night which didn't really make sense given the frontal passage. Decided to side with the NAM as its more aggressive drop in T/Td made more physical sense to me. Went high on the winds as BUFKIT does show the potential for them to mix down some pretty good winds with 20 kts below 950 mb. Didn't want to risk precip. as the odds seem to favor nothing measurable with the main thrust of omega missing well to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 71/44/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 69/46/15/0 Counting on the WAA for the high, really had no idea for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 So much for no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 ugghhh had a feeling CAD would be the culprit with the high we have another 2 hours of sun, it is getting sunny up here, so maybe squeak out 66. We will see, that rain though 0.01 on the dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 0.01" of rain. D'oh! Can we at least squeeze out a good spike in temp this last hour or so? Went with 67/49/14/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 0.01" of rain. D'oh! Can we at least squeeze out a good spike in temp this last hour or so? Went with 67/49/14/0.00 hit 66 hoping 67 before it ends. Nice deck of clouds moving in with the "cold front" should be the end of it this hour unless they break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: hit 66 hoping 67 before it ends. Nice deck of clouds moving in with the "cold front" should be the end of it this hour unless they break 67 unless the clouds clear the area. holding at 66 now which is cool not quite as bad as 61 earlier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: 67 unless the clouds clear the area. holding at 66 now which is cool not quite as bad as 61 earlier lol sun came out winds picked up now 68 might mix to 69 before sun goes down dp's dropping now. Winds already about 13knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 64/41/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 62/38/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 62/41/8 Tomorrow looks awfully similar to Day 1 in regards to the high temp. On Day 1, the 925mb temps were about 9C and they reached 65F. Tomorrow the 925 mb temps are forecast to be around 7.5C so I figured it should be a few degrees cooler than Monday. However, there was some cloud cover on Monday on the backside of a departing ridge which likely won't be present tomorrow so we'll see. Kind of felt like I needed to go 62F just to try to gain some spots since USL had 64F. Low looks like it will be tomorrow night at 06z. Hoping they can radiate enough with clear skies and calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2016 Author Share Posted October 14, 2016 Went 64/42/12, looks like my wind was too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 64/37/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 64/39/10/0 I was convinced I submitted my forecast around 3 pm. Went back to check things at 10 mins before 00z to find my current forecast as not submitted. Had to make it up by memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 Damn, so close to my first perfect forecast pending the low but the climate report gave me the bad news I was expecting, two degrees higher than the hourlies just like Day 1. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 somehow managed to get a perfect forecast today hoping to get something good to come in at the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Somehow ended up in 2nd place overall despite being away on a trip and having a busy week. Yay, senior year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 84/59/14 I actually meant to drop my low down to 57F, but I forgot that I hadn't done that yet, so I'm stuck with my 59F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 84/59/13 The high managed to get to 80F today with 850s around 14C. Tomorrows 850s should be in the 15.5C to 16C range so with fewer clouds they should get a bit above guidance. The low was a tough call but if they somehow mix any of the LLJ they probably wont get below 60F. However, if they can stay calm like they are now and manage to get dews to drop a bit then they could get to the MOS low of 56F. I guess I took the middle ground of the USL/NAM. Winds will be howling just above the surface tomorrow with the NAM showing >20 kts 2000 ft above the surface. However, given the station's history of not mixing well on SW winds decided to play it conservatively. Of course if there were ever a day to throw climatology out the window I guess it would be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: 84/59/13 The high managed to get to 80F today with 850s around 14C. Tomorrows 850s should be in the 15.5C to 16C range so with fewer clouds they should get a bit above guidance. The low was a tough call but if they somehow mix any of the LLJ they probably wont get below 60F. However, i they can stay calm like they are now and manage to get dews to drop a bit then they could get to the MOS low of 56F. I guess I took the middle ground of the USL/NAM. Winds will be howling just above the surface tomorrow with the NAM showing >20 kts above the surface. However, given the station's history of not mixing well on SW winds decided to play it conservatively. Of course if there were ever a day to throw climatology out the window I guess it would be tomorrow. Technically it probably went higher but they were doing maintenance on the ASOS today so during the time it was down was not being recorded only reported hourly for about 2 hours today until about 3pm. That 80 was from just before 330pm and ignore the low lol again another maintenance thing, shows 23 on my end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 I put 85/58/11/0 Went lighter on winds thinking it wouldnt mix quite as well but could see how they go stronger. The low will fall with the DP slowly tonight I can see lower then 58 but went warmer due to a nice SW flow aloft across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 86/56/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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