OHweather Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Apparently the 18kt sustained wind in the 6z METAR isn't going in yesterday's climo or today's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 63/34/9 I had to mix higher than what BUFKIT showed to get to that number. I could see maybe 64 tops but I'm surprised NWS upped it to 66. That would really be a colossal failure by the models resolving the mixing layer height. Went basically with guidance on the low, hoping they sort of level off at some point as they near the dew point. Didn't see much potential for wind so went on the low side though I think I probably went a knot or two too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 66/34/9 Gambling on the mixing, especially after NWS bumped it up to 66. I do have to say JAN is one of more aggressive WFOs I've seen in the competition so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, WxBlue said: 66/34/9 Gambling on the mixing, especially after NWS bumped it up to 66. I do have to say JAN is one of more aggressive WFOs I've seen in the competition so far. Good gamble imo. Looking more closely, 00z NAM BUFKIT shows that if they mix about 1200 feet higher, they will get to 66. They've already shown a propensity be above guidance and there are definitely reasons to go above guidance tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 65/33/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Was going to go 67 but went with 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 67/32/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 67/33/11 Bad start to this city...the highs have been crushing guidance on sunny days so hopefully that trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Can't believe I'm in first right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Went 64/34/8/0 Felt I should have gone higher on the high temp but held it conservative. Looks like I should have since we just hit 64. Not doing bad so far I'm below 100 so I'll take it. These ulls are always tricky maybe next week some severe weather with yet another ull coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 70/39/11/0 How quickly clouds come in will determine the high. Could see how the low could get to even 36 depending on the dew point as the night goes on. Also precip was a tricky timing was thinking it would hold off until just after 6z but if I would have went with precip it would have been only like 0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 72/37/0.07/14 cant screw up heading into the last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 72/42/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 73/40/15/0 Went all in on the high tomorrow after getting burned today and Tuesday. My reasoning is that on Tuesday they had 860 mb temps of about 11C and reached 76F. Tomorrow's should be around 9 to 9.5C. Of course, the clouds may spoil the party but I decided it was worth the risk. Not too enthused though with the GFS MOS showing only 66F. The low was also tough, I could see it being anywhere from 35 to 42. I hedged on the warmer side in hopes that some of the wind above the inversion could somehow get to the surface. I went pretty high on the winds since they had a window of mixing as the shortwave approaches in the late afternoon. Precip. looked like it would dodge the area and break up as it got there so went with nothing measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Oh geez.... Well that was quite the fail of a good chunk of models. 64 as a high let's see if the rain can hold off a bit hoping so only 5 more hours to go lol The radar in North Louisiana looks to have more bark then bite so that is fine hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/17/2017 at 1:34 PM, so_whats_happening said: Oh geez.... Well that was quite the fail of a good chunk of models. 64 as a high let's see if the rain can hold off a bit hoping so only 5 more hours to go lol The radar in North Louisiana looks to have more bark then bite so that is fine hopefully I wonder if the WxChallenge will make the change to 65 for the high temperature. According to the climate report from JAN, the high was 65 at 11:23am (1723z). The 24 hour high on the 06z METAR early this morning also indicated a high of 18.3 C. The 18z METAR yesterday failed to report six-hour highs and lows, so I assume this is why it was not captured. Not that it would really change anything for most people, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Went 69/58/17/1.00" This will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, OHweather said: Went 69/58/17/1.00" This will be interesting. We have the same thing except I went 0.93" for precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 69/57/16/0.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 68/57/17/0.82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We have the same thing except I went 0.93" for precip I need a bounce back day after Friday, so good luck to us both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, OHweather said: I need a bounce back day after Friday, so good luck to us both! I'm so nervous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Too bad we just missed .13" but hopefully more Went 68/56/17/0.93 I can see atleast the .5-.75" range happening after that will be interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Well, that was a fail I didn't see coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Why does everyone keep voting for Kodiak and Poughkeepsie? Is this just a popularity contest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Lol well that was a fail on the precip everywhere around them seem to do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 72/53/9/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Decided to bump up high 75/53/12/00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 76/52/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 76/52/8 Looked like they would mix up to about 820 mb tomorrow which yielded 75. Decided to tack a degree onto that given their tendency to be warmer than I expect. I probably would even have gone a little higher if it weren't for the clouds that look like they may stick around for a while in the morning and early afternoon. I was really thinking the low would be at 06z tomorrow night with clearing skies and dropping dews but it looks like they are clear with calm winds now so unless that changes they will probably get into the 40s easily. I didn't see much of an opportunity for them to mix down winds, looked like a pretty tame profile but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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