H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Well, Day 1 is a disaster pending the low. Could be more disastrous since it'll likely get lower than my 44. 51/42/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Just got trolled by it dropping three degrees between 05 and 06z. Never though it'd get into the 30s tonight but looks like that's what will probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Wow a person from my class managed to have a perfect forecast yesterday. 56/43/18/0.18 that is impressive 7 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: Just got trolled by it dropping three degrees between 05 and 06z. Never though it'd get into the 30s tonight but looks like that's what will probably happen. Wasnt too worried about dropping to the 30's as some showed last night, tonight though definitely different and lets see how the highs go we may reach our max in a couple hours before we slowly wane the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Well there goes that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 43/35/17/0.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 43/36/17/0.07 Why is everyone's score so high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: 43/36/17/0.07 Why is everyone's score so high? Because verification has been close to national consensus, and you're scored against how well national consensus does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 hours ago, Mallow said: Because verification has been close to national consensus, and you're scored against how well national consensus does Ah, that makes sense. Strange that that's happened given we had relatively significant precip. yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 43/37/16/0.10 Somehow, I found myself in top 20 going to Day 3. Also a golden opportunity for me to move into top 15 as leaders for the year are struggling with this city due to Day 1 winds busting for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 40/34/16/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Pretty pleased with today, gained 335 spots pending the low and precip. 40/35/15/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 42/30/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 40/29/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 39/31/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 42/32/20/0 I figured even with more clouds than today they should have a chance to make it almost as high as today with the strong southerlies ahead of the front. Couldn't buy them dropping to 30 like the USL had with the moderating effect the Lake should have but we'll see. Took a shot at high winds as the NAM BUFKIT profile for TVC showed 21 kts only a few hundred feet off the ground and with winds becoming more westerly figured they could have a shot at mixing better than on Day 1 when the wind was SSW. Didn't want to gamble with precip. as any lift looked as if it would be mostly to their NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 31/27/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 31/26/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 32/27/22 Decided it was worth going for it a bit on winds since NWS is forecasting peak sustained wind of 21 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Oh man completely missed forecasting yesterday so this will rather be my drop city lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 33/27/19/0.18 Precip is a crapshoot. Could be anything from almost nothing due to undercatch and being missed by most of the LES bands, to much higher if a heavy band sets up right over them for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Well didn't want to mark up anymore absent forecasts so might as well keep going for this city. 31/26/19/0.07 Went on the lower side thought LES would hit but with shifting winds they may miss out on some of the heaviest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 34/27/20/0.06 Seems like a crazy low forecast on precip. but I have to think the wind will play a role allowing some of the snow to miss the gauge and like sowhatshappening mentioned, not sure they'll be in the heaviest as it seems areas just NE of them are much more favored. If they do snow core samples then I'm probably screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 34/28/17/0.15 Got tired of ignoring USL and getting burned... hence the 34. My thinking is the same as Mallow's on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Pretty clear they are getting significant precipitation that simply isn't getting into the gauge due to the winds. Last METAR shows they picked up 1" of additional snow accumulation in the last hour, despite recording no measureable precipitation. KTVC 082153Z 34012G19KT 1SM -SN BKN015 OVC030 M01/M03 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP196 SNINCR 1/3 P0000 T10061033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, phil882 said: Pretty clear they are getting significant precipitation that simply isn't getting into the gauge due to the winds. Last METAR shows they picked up 1" of additional snow accumulation in the last hour, despite recording no measureable precipitation. KTVC 082153Z 34012G19KT 1SM -SN BKN015 OVC030 M01/M03 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP196 SNINCR 1/3 P0000 T10061033 Yea it's a shame that asos just misses most unless there is no wind or just liquid. this is what happened 2 years ago when we had Sault st Marie snowed and snowed and snowed and I'm pretty sure it barely recorded. 29/24/16/0.15 I think... I made this forecast earlier son I'm not 100% on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 30/26/16/0.23 Really hoping the lighter winds tomorrow will allow more of the snow to reach the gauge. I also feel they'll be in an even more favorable regime tomorrow with the orientation of the PGF and some help synoptically with s/w moving in especially after 00z. I'm right at the mean for precip. and the std deviation is 0.24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 29/22/14/0.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Man, they really got hammered in the last hour and a half or so but not much to show for it. I guess this is karma for yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I decided to go bold (since TVC was becoming my drop city) and submitted 29/23/14/0.10 to account for the fact not all flakes will fall into the bucket due to winds. Got me up to 13th in cumulative standing for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 19 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I decided to go bold (since TVC was becoming my drop city) and submitted 29/23/14/0.10 to account for the fact not all flakes will fall into the bucket due to winds. Got me up to 13th in cumulative standing for the year. Looks like it payed out though looks like only 0.08 for the day but that low so far already 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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