so_whats_happening Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, Mallow said: I also had contacted the WxChallenge manager, and he got back to me. Apparently, he contacted the Reno NWS and they do not want to change their 25kt value. So we are stuck with the 25kts unless the NWS changes their mind. Wow it shouldn't even be whatever they choose the computer itself should have recorded those values and changed accordingly unless there was not a true representative 2 minute period of higher winds which I find hard to believe. That's almost like saying today will go down at 20 knots instead of the clear time where it went to almost 25+ knots today. They can change it but they have a limited time before it locks in as climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: Wow it shouldn't even be whatever they choose the computer itself should have recorded those values and changed accordingly unless there was not a true representative 2 minute period of higher winds which I find hard to believe. That's almost like saying today will go down at 20 knots instead of the clear time where it went to almost 25+ knots today. They can change it but they have a limited time before it locks in as climo. Yeah, that's what confuses me. It seems like the automated system would have captured the correct value, which means that the current incorrect value would have to have been entered by hand. It's also strange that it shows it as a southeasterly wind, when almost all the strongest winds were SSE or S. And the five-minute observations show 2-minute wind speeds, so by definition the highest wind should be at least as high as the highest 5-minute observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 hours ago, Mallow said: I also had contacted the WxChallenge manager, and he got back to me. Apparently, he contacted the Reno NWS and they do not want to change their 25kt value. So we are stuck with the 25kts unless the NWS changes their mind. I think we are going to need an explanation from the KRNO office on why they don't want to change their 25kt value, especially when there were 12 separate 5 min instances where the winds were higher than 25kt. It doesn't affect me too much for my WxChallenge forecast for yesterday, but it does affect the scientific integrity of their ASOS station climatology (especially if these discrepancies occur regularly). A potential discrepancy of 5kt is rather significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, phil882 said: I think we are going to need an explanation from the KRNO office on why they don't want to change their 25kt value, especially when there were 12 separate 5 min instances where the winds were higher than 25kt. It doesn't affect me too much for my WxChallenge forecast for yesterday, but it does affect the scientific integrity of their ASOS station climatology (especially if these discrepancies occur regularly). A potential discrepancy of 5kt is rather significant. Agreed on all counts. The winds yesterday were consistent with what was expected, and the observations were not flagged. The observations looked perfectly reasonable and reliable throughout the day, and it's very strange to me that they would choose to ignore those observations in the daily climate report. I still have not received an email response from the Reno office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 48/23/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 49/21/8/0 Only had about 5 minutes to forecast...can't be any worse than more forecast for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 45/23/10 Guess I went too low on the high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 47/23/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 4 hours ago, Mallow said: Agreed on all counts. The winds yesterday were consistent with what was expected, and the observations were not flagged. The observations looked perfectly reasonable and reliable throughout the day, and it's very strange to me that they would choose to ignore those observations in the daily climate report. I still have not received an email response from the Reno office. I agree as well. Interestingly, today's afternoon climate report shows a maximum wind of 30mph/26 knots, so it was done correctly today. Yesterday's needs to be corrected. 47/23/11/0.00 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 12 hours ago, nje310 said: I agree as well. Interestingly, today's afternoon climate report shows a maximum wind of 30mph/26 knots, so it was done correctly today. Yesterday's needs to be corrected. 47/23/11/0.00 for tomorrow. I just got an email back from the Reno NWS, and they found that the estimated 25kts was due to a minor error (possibly a power blip) which caused the script to grab the highest hourly wind speed instead of the highest wind speed. They have since fixed the wind speed to 35mph in an updated climo, and sent a message to the WxChallenge Twitter. Sounds like it's going to be fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Mallow said: I just got an email back from the Reno NWS, and they found that the estimated 25kts was due to a minor error (possibly a power blip) which caused the script to grab the highest hourly wind speed instead of the highest wind speed. They have since fixed the wind speed to 35mph in an updated climo, and sent a message to the WxChallenge Twitter. Sounds like it's going to be fixed! I feel at this point it really shouldn't do much but change a few scores and just add to error points but at least they are catching it. Soon we will be having to forecast snow to liquid that's always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Mallow said: I just got an email back from the Reno NWS, and they found that the estimated 25kts was due to a minor error (possibly a power blip) which caused the script to grab the highest hourly wind speed instead of the highest wind speed. They have since fixed the wind speed to 35mph in an updated climo, and sent a message to the WxChallenge Twitter. Sounds like it's going to be fixed! Yep, I noticed it's been corrected on the WxChallenge results as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Mallow said: I just got an email back from the Reno NWS, and they found that the estimated 25kts was due to a minor error (possibly a power blip) which caused the script to grab the highest hourly wind speed instead of the highest wind speed. They have since fixed the wind speed to 35mph in an updated climo, and sent a message to the WxChallenge Twitter. Sounds like it's going to be fixed! Excellent, I'm glad they fixed the issue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 59/25/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 56/24/13 Worried winds might be stronger then first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 57/25/11 Totally missed the LLJ after 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 57/24/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 If that 12kt observation is the highest of the day, today would be my first perfect forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 13 hours ago, Mallow said: If that 12kt observation is the highest of the day, today would be my first perfect forecast. About time geez. just kidding congrats man told you its just random. next is to see if u can get it during a synoptic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcontinelli Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 I went 57/42/20/.31 Convective influence may give winds extra kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 57/41/18/0.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 56/43/15/0.20 Pretty conservative forecast. I can see 17-20 knots working out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 58/44/23/0.22 Rude awakening after the holiday break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 57/43/22/0.30 Was surprised at how low the USL was on winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 56/43/15/0.23 Where were you guys, the ones at 20+knots, looking at? I can see how they may get to like 18 maybe 19 if they manage to bring down that stronger wind. Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: 56/43/15/0.23 Where were you guys, the ones at 20+knots, looking at? I can see how they may get to like 18 maybe 19 if they manage to bring down that stronger wind. Good luck all NAM BUFKIT showed 23 kts at 450 ft AGL in the early afternoon. GFS even higher though it tends to overdo it I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: NAM BUFKIT showed 23 kts at 450 ft AGL in the early afternoon. GFS even higher though it tends to overdo it I think. Ok cool I had thought so I am at work and was unable to check out BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 58/45/26/0.27 It's "possible" that I'm a little strong on the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 51/39/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 held onto clouds tomorrow possibility 48/38/11/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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