October 2016 Temperature Forecast Contest

[Roger Smith]

The fourth quarter begins -- and the annual race has remained tight after September. 

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 "normals") for these nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Deadline for on-time entries is 06z on Saturday October 1st, with the usual late penalties (1% per 2h late to 18z 2nd, then 1% per hour) in force. Good luck ...

 

[Stebo]

DCA +1.2

NYC +0.8

BOS +0.6

ORD +1.0

ATL +1.4

IAH -0.7

DEN -0.5

PHX +1.0

SEA -1.2

[Maxim]

DCA: +4,5

NYC: +4.0

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +4.0

ATL: +4.5

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +2.0

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.0

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.7

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +2.0

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.5

SEA: -0.5

[Rjay]

DCA: +4.0

NYC: +4.0

BOS: +4.0

ORD: +4.0

ATL: +3.5

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +3.5

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.0

[Tom]

DCA: +2.4

NYC: +2.3

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +3.1

IAH: +0.7

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +0.9

SEA: +1.1

[bkviking]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.4

BOS: +2.3

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.0

•  
• Quote

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +2.5

NYC:  +2.8

BOS:  +2.6

ORD:  +1.2

ATL:  +2.0

IAH:  +0.9

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +0.3

SEA:  +0.3

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA:  +3.5

NYC:  +3.0

BOS:  +2.9

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:  +3.6

IAH:  +1.5

DEN:  +0.5

PHX:  +0.8

SEA:  +0.0 

[WEATHER53]

On September 26, 2016 at 11:12 AM, Roger Smith said:

The fourth quarter begins -- and the annual race has remained tight after September. 

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 "normals") for these nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Deadline for on-time entries is 06z on Saturday October 1st, with the usual late penalties (1% per 2h late to 18z 2nd, then 1% per hour) in force. Good luck ...

 

Dca:+2.6

Nyc:+2.4

Bos:+2.2

Ord:+2.0

Atl:+2.8

Iah:+1.8

Den:0.0

phx:+0.8

Sea:-1.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +1.9

NYC:  +2.1

BOS:  +2.4

ORD:  +1.3

ATL:  +2.5

IAH:  +1.8

DEN:  +0.0

PHX:  +0.4

SEA:  +0.7 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+3.2 _ +3.0 __ +2.8 _____ +3.6 __ +2.3 _ +1.3 ______ +1.4 __ +0.9 __ +0.6

[Roger Smith]

+3.5 __ +3.3 __ +3.7 ____ +4.0 __ +2.5 __ +1.5 _____ +2.0 __ --1.5 __ +0.7

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

2.0        1.5        1.0           1.0        1.0         1.0          0.5         1.0         1.0 

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.7 _ +2.1 __ +2.2 _____ +0.4 __ +1.7 _ +1.3 ______ +2.4 __ +0.7 __ +0.1

[Roger Smith]

Post replaced with final table of forecasts. 

[blazess556]

dca. +3.0

nyc +2.8

Bos +2.6

 

Ord. +3.4 

atl +2.1

iah +1.1

 

den  +1.1

 

phx +0.7

sea  +0.4

[Mallow]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.9 _ +1.9 __ +1.9 _____ +2.9 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 ______ +3.1 __ -1.7 __ -0.5

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DC +3.5

nyc +2.9

bos + 2.9

ord + 2.0

atl +3.0

iah +1.8

den -1.0

phx +1.7

sea -1.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for October 2016

 

Consensus is set by average of 9th and 10th ranked forecast (out of 18) ... From now to end of 2016, any new forecasters are of course welcome to join in but consensus will be determined by regular forecasters to maintain continuity. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Maxim ________________ +4.5_ +4.0_ +3.5 ___ +4.0_ +4.5_ +2.0 ___ +2.0_ +1.5_ +1.0

Rjay __________________ +4.0_ +4.0_ +4.0 ___ +4.0_ +3.5_ +1.0 ___ +3.5_ +1.0_ +1.0

Roger Smith ___________ +3.5_ +3.3_ +3.7 ___ +4.0_ +2.5_ +1.5 ___ +2.0_ --1.5_ +0.7

Damage in Tolland ______ +3.5_ +3.0_ +2.9 ___ +1.0_ +3.6_ +1.5 ___ +0.5_ +0.8__ 0.0

Midlo Snow Maker _ (-1%)_+3.5_ +2.9_ +2.9 ___ +2.0_ +3.0_ +1.8 ___ --1.0_ +1.7_ --1.0

DonSutherland.1 ________+3.2_ +3.0_ +2.8 ___ +3.6_ +2.3_ +1.3 ___ +1.4_ +0.9_ +0.6

Blazess556 ____________ +3.0_ +2.8_ +2.6 ___ +3.4_ +2.1_ +1.1 ___ +1.1_ +0.7_ +0.4

Tenman Johnson _______ +2.6_ +2.4_ +2.2 ___ +2.0_ +2.8_ +1.8 ____ 0.0_ +0.8_ --1.5 

wxdude64 _____________ +2.5_ +2.8_ +2.6 ___ +1.2_ +2.0_ +0.9 ___ +1.7_ +0.3_ +0.3

 

Consensus _____________ +2.5_ +2.4_ +2.3 ___ +1.7_ +2.2_ +1.3 ___ +1.3_ +0.9_ +0.5

 

dmillz25 _______________+2.5_ +2.0_ +1.7 ___ +1.5_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +1.0_ +1.5_ --0.5

Tom __________________+2.4_ +2.3_ +1.8 ___ +1.9_ +3.1_ +0.7 ___ +1.8_ +0.9_ +1.1

BKViking ______________ +2.2_ +2.4_ +2.3 ___ +0.8_ +1.9_ +1.0 ___ +2.2_ +1.5_ +1.0

wxallannj __ (-35%) ____ +2.2_ +2.4_ +2.1 ___ +1.2_ +2.3_ +1.7 ___ +1.2_ +1.8_ +0.5

SD ___________________ +2.0_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +1.0_ +1.0_ +1.0 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ +1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.9_ +2.1_ +2.4 ___ +1.3_ +2.5_ +1.8 ____ 0.0_ +0.4_ +0.7

Mallow ________________ +1.9_ +1.9_ +1.9 ___ +2.9_ +1.9_ +2.3 ___ +3.1_ --1.7_ --0.5 

RodneyS ______________ +1.7_ +2.1_ +2.2 ___ +0.4_ +1.7_ +1.3 ___ +2.4_ +0.7_ +0.1

Stebo _________________+1.2_ +0.8_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.4_ --0.7 ___ --0.5_ +1.0_ --1.2

 

Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

[Roger Smith]

======= <<<< Seasonal Max Contest 2016 -- Final scores >>> =======

 

Errors in red are lower than outcome, errors in black are higher.

Your score is the total of errors (in F deg).

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTAL

2016 seasonal max ___________ 101 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 93 __100 __101 __ 102 _ 118 _ 95

rank

1 (t) Mallow _________________  1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 16

1 (t) Maxim _________________  1 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 9 ___ 0 ___  1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 16

3 RodneyS __________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 17

4 Roger Smith _______________ 2 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 5 ____ 18

5 (t) wxdude64 _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 19

5 (t) DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 19

..

5 (t) Consensus ______________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 19

..

7 Rjay ______________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 0 ____ 8 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 20

8 (t) Midlo Snow Maker _________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 21

8 (t) SD _____________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 21

8 (t) blazess556 _______________2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 21

11 hudsonvalley21 ____________  1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 23

12 wxallannj __________________3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 24

12 Stebo ____________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 24

12 ksammut __________________3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 24

15 BKViking __________________0 ___ 4 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 25

16 Tom _____________________  1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 26

17 DMillz25 __________________2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 9 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 28

18 OHWeather _______________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 1 ___ 12 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 30

19 Tenman Johnson ___________2 ___ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 35

20 Damage in Tolland __________3 ___ 8 ___ 2 ___ 13 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____ 36

BEST SCORES FOR REGIONS

EAST (DCA,NYC,BOS) 

__ 4 error points -- Maxim, DonSutherland.1 and hudsonvalley21

CENTRAL (ORD,ATL,IAH)

__ 4 error points -- Roger Smith (2nd wxallannj with 5)

WESTERN (DEN,PHX,SEA)

__ 2 error points -- Maxim, blazess556

Discussion

Congrats to Mallow and Maxim who got to the lowest total in two different ways. Mallow had no error greater than 4 points, a consistency matched only by RodneyS (who finished one point back). Maxim had 9 out of 16 error points at ORD and hit three right on with four one-point errors. The only other forecast with three correct was Consensus. It was common for ORD to contribute a lot of points, Consensus had 7 of its 19 points from that surprisingly cool outcome (93, probably one of the lower annual maxima they've seen at ORD). 

As a group we did best at DCA, ATL and SEA (consensus equalled outcome) ...

The next bonus contest will be the snowfall totals at these nine locations for winter 2016-17, which will be announced in the November contest but will allow entries to be submitted or edited into mid-November.

The actual seasonal max forecasts follow. (PDX actual was 100) -- note that the higher scores are generally in the lower half of this table (those who went a little below consensus). I did not score normal this year but have the feeling that Normal might have come in close to first place.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

forecasts are listed in order of DCA then NYC where tied etc.

Damage in Tolland ___________ 104 _ 104 _ 100 _____ 106 _ 102 _ 101 ____ 106 _ 118 __ 99

OHWeather _________________ 104 _ 102 __ 99 _____ 105 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 120 __ 93

DMillz25 ____________________103 _ 101 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97

Tenman Johnson ____________ 103 _ 101 __ 99 ______102 _ 104 _ 105 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 91

blazess556 _________________ 103 _ 101 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 119 __ 95

Roger Smith ________________ 103 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 119 _ 100 (104 PDX)

Rjay _______________________102 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

Stebo ______________________102 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 94

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 ______96 __ 99 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 115 __ 96

SD ________________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ______95 _ 102 __ 96 _____ 97 _ 119 __ 96

..

Consensus __________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 117 __ 95

..

BKViking ___________________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ______98 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 95 _ 118 __ 92

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 93

Mallow _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 _ 102 _ 103 _____100 _ 117 __ 95 (103 PDX)

Tom _______________________100 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 104 _____ 97 _ 118 __ 95

Maxim _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 101 _ 117 __ 95

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 _____100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxdude64 ___________________100 __ 98 __ 96 ______96 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 94

RodneyS ____________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

ksammut ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxallannj ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 115 __ 93

[wxallannj]

DCA. +2.2

NYC  +2.4

BOS  +2.1

ORD +1.2

ATL. +2.3

HOU + 1.7

DEN  +1.2

PHX +1.8

SEA +0.5

 

Roger thanks for the reminder, got distracted since I am vacationing in Barbados that was affected by then Tropical Storm Matthew.

[Mallow]

8 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Discussion

Thanks for running this, Roger, was fun!

[Roger Smith]

Yep, last year I was updating this contest into first half of September, this year everything was done by mid-August.

 

[Roger Smith]

First reports on the anomalies and forecasts ...

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__________ (6d) _______ +3.4 _ +1.2 _ --1.3 ___ +7.3 _ +4.2 _ +2.2 ____ +1.3 _ --4.1 _ +0.3

_________ (10d) _______ +2.7 _ +1.3 _ --0.4 ___ +4.8 _ +4.4 _ +1.7 ____ +1.8 _ --0.5 _ +0.4

_________ (13d) _______ +1.9 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ___ +4.2 _ +3.7 _ +2.7 ____ +1.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.3

 

_________ (p20d) ______ +3.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.5 ___ +6.6 _ +4.5 _ +4.2 ____ +3.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1

_________ (p31d) ______ +2.8 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 ___ +4.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.8 ____ +4.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.8

next post on 16th will start the countdown ... with provisional scoring to follow (the top half of the forecast table appear to be converging on the lead at this point). 

[Roger Smith]

__ Continuing the countdown from previous post ...

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_________ (15d) _______ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ --0.6 ___ +4.1 _ +4.1 _ +3.2 ___ +3.7 _ +0.8 _ +0.5

_________ (16d) _______ +1.7 _ +0.8 _ --0.2 ___ +4.9 _ +4.4 _ +3.5 ___ +4.4 _ +0.9 _ +0.6

_________ (17d) _______ +2.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.7 ___ +5.9 _ +4.7 _ +3.8 ___ +4.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.7

_________ (18d) _______ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ +1.2 ___ +6.3 _ +5.0 _ +4.2 ___ +4.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.8

_________ (19d) _______ +3.7 _ +3.4 _ +2.1 ___ +6.4 _ +5.6 _ +4.5 ___ +3.9 _ +1.2 _ +0.8

_________ (20d) _______ +4.4 _ +3.8 _ +2.3 ___ +6.1 _ +6.0 _ +4.6 ___ +3.5 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

_________ (21d) _______ +4.7 _ +4.0 _ +2.9 ___ +5.5 _ +5.7 _ +4.1 ___ +3.7 _ +1.8 _ +0.9

_________ (22d) _______ +4.4 _ +3.7 _ +2.9 ___ +5.2 _ +5.3 _ +3.5 ___ +4.1 _ +2.2 _ +0.9

_________ (23d) _______ +4.2 _ +3.4 _ +2.8 ___ +5.3 _ +5.0 _ +3.2 ___ +4.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.1

_________ (24d) _______ +4.2 _ +3.3 _ +2.7 ___ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.2 ___ +4.6 _ +2.6 _ +1.3

_________ (25d) _______ +4.0 _ +2.9 _ +2.3 ___ +4.6 _ +5.1 _ +3.1 ___ +4.9 _ +2.8 _ +1.5

_________ (26d) _______ +3.6 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 ___ +4.4 _ +5.0 _ +3.2 ___ +5.1 _ +3.1 _ +1.7

_________ (27d) _______ +3.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.6 ___ +4.1 _ +5.3 _ +3.2 ___ +5.5 _ +3.4 _ +1.8

_________ (28d) _______ +3.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 ___ +4.1 _ +5.5 _ +3.3 ___ +6.1 _ +3.8 _ +2.0

_________ (29d) _______ +3.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.4 ___ +4.5 _ +5.7 _ +3.4 ___ +6.4 _ +4.0 _ +2.1

_________ (30d) _______ +3.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ___ +4.4 _ +5.9 _ +3.5 ___ +6.5 _ +4.2 _ +2.0

_________ (31d) _______ +3.6_ +1.9 _+1.3 ___ +4.4_ +6.3_ +3.5___+6.9_ +4.3_ +2.0

Final values are now posted and tables will be updated by mid-day Tuesday Nov 1st (I hope). 

When tables are updated they will have "updated" instead of "provisional" in their headers.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Updated final scoring October 2016

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ____ TOTAL

 

Maxim ________________82 _ 58 _ 56 ___ 196 ____ 92_ 77_ 70___ 239 _____ 435

Mallow _______________ 66 _100_ 88 ___ 254 ____ 70 _ 25 _76 ___ 171 _____ 425 

Tenman Johnson _______ 80 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 252 ____ 52 _ 43 _ 66 ___ 161 _____ 413 

DonSutherland.1 ________92 _ 78 _ 70 ___ 240 ____ 84 _ 33 _ 56 ___ 173 _____ 413

Roger Smith ___________98 _ 72 _ 52 ___ 222 ____ 92 _ 37 _ 60 ___ 199 _____ 411

Midlo Snow Maker ______ 98 _ 80 _ 68 ___ 246 ____ 52 _ 47 _ 66 ___ 165_411

____________ (-1%) ____97 _ 79 _ 67 ___ 243 ____ 51 _ 47 _ 65 ___ 163 _____ 406

Blazess556 ____________ 88 _ 82 _ 74 ___ 244 ____ 80 _ 29 _ 52 ___ 161 _____ 405

Tom __________________76 _ 92 _ 90 ___ 258 ____ 50 _ 49 _ 44 ___ 143 _____ 401

Rjay __________________92 _ 58 _ 46 ___ 196 ____ 92 _ 57 _ 50 ___ 199 _____ 395

Damage in Tolland ______ 98 _ 78 _ 68 ___ 244 ____ 32 _ 59 _ 60 ___ 158 _____ 395

dmillz25 _______________78 _ 98 _ 92 ___ 268 ____ 42 _ 27 _ 50 ___ 119 _____ 387

hudsonvalley21 _________ 66 _ 96 _ 78 ___ 240 ____ 38 _ 37 _ 66 ___ 141 _____ 381

 

Consensus _____________ 78 _ 90 _ 80 ___ 248 ____ 46 _ 31 _ 56 ___ 133 _____ 381

 

SD ___________________ 68 _ 92 _ 94 ___ 254 ____ 32 _ 10 _ 50 ___ 092 _____ 346

wxdude64 _____________ 78 _ 82 _ 74 ___ 234 ____ 36 _ 27 _ 48 ___ 111 _____ 345

BKViking ______________ 72 _ 90 _ 80 ___ 242 ____ 28 _ 25 _ 50 ___ 103 _____ 345

RodneyS ______________ 62 _ 96 _ 82 ___ 240 ____ 20 _ 21 _ 56 ___ 097 _____ 337

Stebo ________________ 52 _ 78 _ 86  ___ 216 ____ 32 _ 15 _ 16 ___ 063 _____ 279

wxallannj _____________ 72 _ 90 _ 84 ___ 246 ____ 36 _ 33 _ 64 ___ 133 _ 379

__________ (-35%) ____ 47 _ 59 _ 55 ___ 161 ____ 23 _ 21 _ 41 ___ 085 _____ 246

 

Normal _______________ 28 _ 62 _ 74 ___ 164 ____ 12 _ 00 _ 30 ___ 042 _____ 206

 

 

Updated final scoring for western and all nine contests, October 2016

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ all nine (= rank)

 

Rjay __________________51 _ 34 _ 80 _____165 _________ 560 (= 2)

BKViking ______________ 25 _ 44 _ 80 _____ 149 _________ 494 (= 8)t

Maxim ________________ 21 _ 44 _ 80 _____ 145 _________ 580 (= 1)

Tom __________________18 _ 32 _ 82 _____ 132 _________ 533 (= 3)

RodneyS ______________ 29 _ 28 _ 62 _____ 119 _________ 456 (=15)

SD ___________________ 05 _ 34 _ 80 _____ 119 _________ 465 (=14)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 14 _ 32 _ 72_____ 118 _________ 531 (= 4)

 

Consensus _____________13 _ 32 _ 70 _____ 115 _________ 496 (= 8)

 

Blazess556 _____________11 _ 28 _ 68 _____ 107 _________ 512 (= 6)

dmillz25 _______________10 _ 44 _ 50 _____ 104 _________ 491 (=10)

wxdude64 _____________ 17 _ 20 _ 66 _____ 103 _________ 448 (=16)

hudsonvalley21 _________00 _ 22 _ 74 _____ 096 _________ 477 (=12)

Damage in Tolland ______ 05 _ 30 _ 60 _____ 095 _________ 490 (=11)

Roger Smith ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 74 _____ 095 _________ 506 (= 7)

Mallow ________________43 _ 00 _ 50 _____ 093 _________ 518 (= 5)

Midlo Snow Maker ______ 00 _ 48 _ 40 _ 088

____________ (-1%) ____00_ 48 _ 40 _____ 088 _________ 494 (= 8)t

wxallannj ______________12 _ 50 _ 70 _ 132

__________ (-35%) _____08 _ 33 _ 46 _____ 087 _________ 333 (=18)

 

Normal _______________ 00 _ 14 _ 60 _____ 074 _________ 280 (=19)

 

Stebo _________________00 _ 34 _ 36 _____ 070 _________ 349 (=17)

Tenman Johnson ________00 _ 30 _ 30 _____ 060 _________ 473 (=13)  

 

[Roger Smith]

Summary of updated annual totals

... scores in italics below your contest scores are raw totals before time penalties, ranks shown there are compared to all raw scores, only indicated for those that are higher than in contest rankings, some players without penalties would drop one or two ranks in that comparison. Note -- these will appear later today. 

 

Main contest (east, central) ______ (rank) western  _____ (rank) all nine

 

 1. DonSutherland.1 ______ 4120 _________ (2) __ 1818 ______ (1) __ 5938

 2. RodneyS _____________4089 ________ (12) __ 1563 ______ (5) __ 5652

(1) __ RodneyS ____________ 4123 _________ (12) __ 1577 _______ (5) __ 5699

 3. wxdude64 ___________ 4046 _________ (5) __ 1725 ______ (2) __ 5771

(3) __ wxdude64 _________ 4060 _________ (5) __ 1732 _____ (2) __ 5793

 4. Consensus ___________ 4040 _________ (3) __ 1795 ______ (2) __ 5835

 4. Mallow ______________ 4000 _________ (4) __ 1740 ______ (3) __ 5740

 5. Damage in Tolland _____3986 _________ (9) __ 1680 ______ (4) __ 5666

 6. Maxim ______________ 3932 _________ (8) __ 1697 ______ (6) __ 5629  

 7. Blazess556 ___________3930 ________ (13) __ 1541 _____ (11) __ 5471

(6) __ Blazess556 _______ 3965 _________ (13) __ 1548 _____ (11) __ 5513

 8. hudsonvalley21 _______ 3906 _________ (7) __ 1702 ______ (7) __ 5608

 9. BKViking _____________3889 ________ (10) __ 1618 _____ (10) __ 5507

(4) __ BKViking __________ 4021 ________ (9) __ 1694 ______ ( 4) __ 5725

10. Rjay ________________3820 _________ (6) __ 1717 ______ (9) __ 5537

(11) __ Rjay ____________ 3838 _________ (6) __ 1725 ______ (10) __ 5561

11. wxallannj ___________ 3731 _________ (1) __ 1843 ______ (8) __ 5574

(10) __ wxallannj _______ 3864 _________ (1) __ 1888 ______ (3) __ 5752

12. Roger Smith _________ 3686 ________ (11) __ 1585 _____ (13) __ 5271

t 13. Dmillz25 ___________ 3649 ________ (17) __ 1415 _____ (15) __ 5064

t 13. MidloSnowMaker ____ 3649 _________ (3) __ 1746 _____ (12) __ 5395

(13) __ MidloSnowMaker __ 3670 ________ (3) __ 1752 ______ (12) __ 5422

15. Stebo ______________ 3603 ________ (19)*__1167 _____ (18) __ 4770

(15) __ Stebo __________ 3618 ________ (19)* __1169 _____ (18) __ 4787

16. Tenman Johnson _____ 3574 ________ (14) __ 1503 _____ (14) __ 5077

17. SD ________________ 3565 ________ (16) __ 1473 _____ (16) __ 5038

18. Tom _______________ 3482 ________ (15) __ 1478 _____ (17) __ 4960

19. OHweather (-2 mo) ___3075 (3105) ___(18) __ 1358 (1366) _ (19) _ 4433 (4471)

19. Normal _____________ 3016 ________ (17) __ 1452 _____ (19) __ 4468

_______________________________________________________________

* at this point, Stebo 19th in western, as OHweather remains 18th despite missing two months. 

---------- -------------------- ----------------------------------- ---------------------- --------------

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (7 of 9 currently qualify) moved to Nov 1st post

__________________________________________________________________

 

 

[Roger Smith]

===<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JAN to OCT 2016 >>>>===

Set to 100% to prevent line overflow.

 

FORECASTER _____ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

rank

01 DonSutherland.1 __ 677 . 773 . 690 __ 2140 ___ 627 . 645 . 708 __ 1980 __ 4120 __ 010011 . 1. 1 ..MAY

02 RodneyS ________ 687 . 748 . 722 __ 2157 ___ 547 . 657 . 728 __ 1932 __ 4089 __ 221031 . 2 . 1

03 wxdude64 _______ 674 . 741 . 730 __ 2145 ___ 590 . 627 . 684 __ 1901 __ 4046 __ 111111 .1 . 0

 

04 Consensus_______ 677 . 760 . 680 __ 2117 ___ 610 . 649 . 664 __ 1923 __ 4040 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

04 Mallow___________601 . 746 . 712 __ 2059 ___ 662 . 549 . 730 __ 1941 __ 4000 __ 110002 . 0 . 0 .

05 Damage in Tolland _745 . 724 . 664 __ 2133 ___ 554 . 721 . 578 __ 1853 __ 3986 __ 311020 . 1 . 1..JUL

06 Maxim __________ 607 . 658 . 748 __ 2013 ___ 560 . 663 . 696 __ 1919 __ 3932 __ 102221 . 1 . 3

_____________________________________________________________________________________ MAR,SEP,OCT

07 blazess556 _______619 . 732 . 698 __ 2049 ___ 549 . 678 . 654 __ 1881 __ 3930 __ 001011 . 0 . 0

08 hudsonvalley21 ___ 611 . 708 . 682 __ 2001 ___ 690 . 599 . 616 __ 1905 __ 3906 __ 000100 . 0 . 0

09 BKViking ________ 577 . 726 . 671 __ 1974 ___ 642 . 646 . 627 __ 1915 __ 3889 __ 000210 . 0 . 1 ..JAN

10 Rjay ____________694 . 655 . 587 __ 1936 ___ 631 . 706 . 547 __ 1884 __ 3820 __ 221211 . 1 . 1 ..AUG

 

11 wxallannj ________ 604 . 701 . 661 __ 1966 ___ 547 . 555 . 663 __ 1765 __ 3731 __ 010100 . 0 . 1 ..APR

12 Roger Smith _____ 679 . 622 . 574 __ 1875 ___ 568 . 585 . 658 __ 1811 __ 3686 __ 400101 . 0 . 0

t13 dmillz25________ 612 . 672 . 618 __ 1902 ___ 596 . 601 . 550 __ 1747 __ 3649 __ 021201 . 2 . 0

t13 MidloSnowMaker_ 619 . 667 . 621 __ 1907 ___ 605 . 585 . 552 __ 1742 __ 3649 __ 011010 . 1 . 0 ..FEB

15 Stebo___________ 590 . 627 . 622 __ 1839 ___ 518 . 626 . 620 __ 1764 __ 3603 __ 001001 . 1 . 1

16 Tenman Johnson _ 591 . 628 . 644 __ 1863 ___ 562 . 571 . 578 __ 1711 __ 3574 __ 210100 . 1 . 0

17 SD _____________567 . 676 . 622 __ 1865 ___ 530 . 536 . 634 __ 1700 __ 3565 __ 00110. 0 . 0

18 Tom____________ 583 . 634 . 600 __ 1817 ___ 502 . 545 . 618 __ 1665 __ 3482 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN

19 OHweather*______487 . 607 . 559 __ 1653 ___ 397 . 541 . 484 __ 1422 __ 3075 __ 000010. 0 . 0

 

20 Normal__________ 474 . 546 . 520 __ 1540 ___ 454 . 390 . 632 __ 1476 __ 3016 __ 000001 . 1 . 0

 

20 ksammut^ _______ 413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ___ 953 __ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0

______________________________________________

* missed two months (Sept,Oct)

^missed 4 months (July, Aug, Sept, Oct)... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables. 

[Roger Smith]

== << Updated Annual Scoring for western and all nine contests Jan to Oct 2016 >> ==

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

01 wxallannj _____________ 536 _ 593 _ 714 ____ 1843 ______ 0 0 1 _______5574 (= 8) ___ APR

02 DonSutherland.1 _______ 522 _ 506 _ 790 ____ 1818 ______ 0 0 2 _ Apr __5938 (= 1) ___ MAY

 

03 Consensus ___________ 569 _ 530 _ 696 ____ 1795 ______ 0 0 1 _ Jul ___ 5835 (= 2) ___ JUL

 

03 Midlo Snow Maker______ 477 _ 555 _ 714 ____ 1746 ______ 1 1 2 _ Mar __ 5395 (=12) ___ FEB

04 Mallow _______________495 _ 521 _ 724 ____ 1740 ______ 1 1 0 _ Sep __ 5740 (= 3)

05 wxdude64 ____________ 550 _ 513 _ 662 ____ 1725 ______ 0 1 2 _ Jan __ 5771 (= 2) ___ JAN

06 Rjay _________________509 _ 513 _ 695 ____ 1717 ______ 1 0 1 _ Oct __ 5537 (= 9) ___ AUG

08 hudsonvalley21 ________ 563 _ 474 _ 665 ____ 1702 ______ 0 1 0 _ Jul __ 5608 (= 7)

07 Maxim _______________ 415 _ 528 _ 754 ____ 1697 ______ 0 1 2 _ Sep __ 5629 (= 6) _ MAR,SEP,OCT

09 Damage in Tolland ______516 _ 426 _ 738 ____ 1680 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jun __ 5666 (= 4) ___ JUN

10 BKViking _____________ 517 _ 465 _ 636 ____ 1618 ______ 0 0 0 _______ 5507 (=10)

 

11 Roger Smith __________ 411 _ 534 _ 640 ____ 1585 ______ 1 2 0 _ Aug __ 5271 (=13)

12 RodneyS _____________480 _ 483 _ 600 ____ 1563 ______ 2 0 0 _ May __ 5652 (= 5)

13 blazess556 ____________484 _ 523 _ 534 ____1541 ______ 1 0 0 _______ 5471 (=11)

14 Tenman Johnson _______ 487 _ 582 _ 434 ____1503 ______ 2 1 1 _ Feb __ 5077 (=14)

15 Tom __________________489 _ 463 _ 526 ____1478 ______ 0 0 1 _______ 4960 (=17)

16 SD ___________________445 _ 474 _ 554 ____1473 ______ 0 0 1 _  Jul  __ 5038 (=16)

 

17 Normal _______________ 510 _ 458 _ 484 ____ 1452 _____ 1 0 1 _ Aug ___ 4468 (=19)

 

17 dmillz25 _______________443 _ 380 _ 592 ____1415 _____ 0 0 0 ________ 5064 (=15)

18 OHweather* ___________ 410 _ 464 _ 484 ____ 1358 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jul  __ 4433 (=19) ___ JUL

19 Stebo ________________ 397 _ 458 _ 312 ____ 1167 _____ 0 1 0 ________ 4770 (=18)

20 ksammut^ _____________ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 _____ 0 1 0 _______ 2971 (=20)

______________________________________________________________________

* missed two months (Sept, Oct)

^ missed 4 months (July, Aug, Sept, Oct) .. other part-time entrants are listed in earlier annual reports.