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October 2016 Discussion/Obs


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The WAR pattern is going to back in charge next week after the -AO fades. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_7.png

 

images.jpg

 

 

 

And chances are the WAR will wind keeping the heaviest rain to our west again with the potential cutoff late next week into the weekend but we will see. Eventually something has to give and break this dry and boring pattern we are in.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CMC and Euro show an east coast rainstorm next weekend. Hope it pans out so we can get some rain.

Given the long-running pattern that has seen rainstorms underperform more often than overperform in our area, one will need to be cautious. Hopefully, we can get a significant rainfall and the pattern can grow wetter as we approach winter.

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Both Euro and GFS hinting at strongest late fall warmth since at least 2001 from October 18th on.

The GFS has a high at Newark this week of 82 and the Euro 83. With 850's pushing 15C-16C and such 

dry conditions, models may actually be a few degrees too cool for the highs.

 

Warmest temps at Newark from 10/18 on:

87...1947

86...1979

85...1950

84...1950...1947

83...2001

82...1984..1978...1946..1945

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On October 13, 2016 at 3:54 PM, SnoSki14 said:

I dont think temps will get that high, weren't we supposed to get 90s in latter September or early October? 

Anything that far is speculative though it's not impossible.

With longer wave lengths, the current magnitude of blocking would knock it down. It's still too soon to be very confident about the winter.

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