dmillz25 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 More clouds kept the temps up. Only down to 52 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 38/36 currently. Awesome look this morning with the fog lifting out of the hills. Orange/red leaves of the maples starting to become prominent. I need a new camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 The big -AO drop has limited the warmth potential to start October around the region. Instead of the recent months +3 to +5 temp departures, we are running smaller positive departures through October 11th. This has been a less warm is the new cool type of pattern. NYC...+0.9 LGA...+1.5 JFK....+0.3 ISP....+1.4 BDR..+1.5 EWR..+0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Beautiful morning. Started out sunny but now some clouds have begun to fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The big -AO drop has limited the warmth potential to start October around the region. Instead of the recent months +3 to +5 temp departures, we are running smaller positive departures through October 11th. This has been a less warm is the new cool type of pattern. NYC...+0.9 LGA...+1.5 JFK....+0.3 ISP....+1.4 BDR..+1.5 EWR..+0.9 the forecast has some members even lower in the long run...Some nao members are way negative in the long run...last year the ao went negative around the same time as this year only not as negative...when November came around the ao shot up to a very positive +4 a month later...we have to wait until November to see if this -AO pattern continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: the forecast has some members even lower in the long run...Some nao members are way negative in the long run...last year the ao went negative around the same time as this year only not as negative...when November came around the ao shot up to a very positive +4 a month later...we have to wait until November to see if this -AO pattern continues... NYC snowfall following October -3.0 daily or lower AO drops. 7 out of 10 winters followed with near to above normal snowfall. Only 3 duds. 2014...-3.993...50.3" 2012...-3.195...26.1" Feb blizzard focus Suffolk 2009...-3.415...51.4" 2006...-3.192...12.4" blocking and cold came in Feb but Valentines Day was ice instead of snow 2003...-3.297...42.6" 2002...-5.098...49.3" 1991...-3.044...12.6"... 1984...-3.087...24.1" 1981....-3.076...24.6" 1979....-3.471...12.8" big MA season due to suppression...38.6" Richmond VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 In 1966 the ao was almost -3 on 10/22 and never went way positive in November and then dropped to below -4 on 12/13...That winter had a negative ao at the beginning and a positive one the second half when 41" of snow fell...it was positive after February 8th until 3/26... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC snowfall following October -3.0 daily or lower AO drops. 7 out of 10 winters followed with near to above normal snowfall. Only 3 duds. 2014...-3.993...50.3" 2012...-3.195...26.1" Feb blizzard focus Suffolk 2009...-3.415...51.4" 2006...-3.192...12.4" blocking and cold came in Feb but Valentines Day was ice instead of snow 2003...-3.297...42.6" 2002...-5.098...49.3" 1991...-3.044...12.6"... 1984...-3.087...24.1" 1981....-3.076...24.6" 1979....-3.471...12.8" big MA season due to 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: In 1966 the ao was almost -3 on 10/22 and never went way positive in November and then dropped to below -4 on 12/13...That winter had a negative ao at the beginning and a positive one the second half when 41" of snow fell...it was positive after February 8th until 3/26... Do I assume it was a front loaded winter, or were there events spread across the winter months. That is very interesting info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, uncle W said: In 1966 the ao was almost -3 on 10/22 and never went way positive in November and then dropped to below -4 on 12/13...That winter had a negative ao at the beginning and a positive one the second half when 41" of snow fell...it was positive after February 8th until 3/26... October 1960, 1976, and 1977 also came close. 1960...-2.4...54.7" 1976...-2.4...24.5" 1977..-2.3....50.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC snowfall following October -3.0 daily or lower AO drops. 7 out of 10 winters followed with near to above normal snowfall. Only 3 duds. 2014...-3.993...50.3" 2012...-3.195...26.1" Feb blizzard focus Suffolk 2009...-3.415...51.4" 2006...-3.192...12.4" blocking and cold came in Feb but Valentines Day was ice instead of snow 2003...-3.297...42.6" 2002...-5.098...49.3" 1991...-3.044...12.6"... 1984...-3.087...24.1" 1981....-3.076...24.6" 1979....-3.471...12.8" big MA season due to suppression...38.6" Richmond VA. All encouraging information. The state of the AO in December could provide insight. All of the duds from the above sample saw strongly positive December AO figures (+1.000 or above monthly averages). The sample size is small, so caution is still in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 36 for a low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 26 minutes ago, frd said: when the AO went to -4 on 12/13/66 the pattern went from record warmth to wet snow and rain...my memory is a little vague but between Dec- 13th-27th NYC had three coastal lows with wet snow and rain...snow to rain to snow...Christmas eve heavy snow and sleet...post Christmas snow to heavy rain...January was mild with temperatures near 70 the second half of January...The AO was a little negative on and off until February 8th...The blizzard was on Feb. 7th...The AO went as high as +4.3 on 2/28 and stayed positive until the end of March...Between March 15th and 22nd NYC got three storms adding up to 15" with all time record cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: when the AO went to -4 on 12/13/66 the pattern went from record warmth to wet snow and rain...my memory is a little vague but between Dec- 13th-27th NYC had three coastal lows with wet snow and rain...snow to rain to snow...Christmas eve heavy snow and sleet...post Christmas snow to heavy rain...January was mild with temperatures near 70 the second half of January...The AO was a little negative on and off until February 8th...The blizzard was on Feb. 7th...The AO went as high as +4.3 on 2/28 and stayed positive until the end of March...Between March 15th and 22nd NYC got three storms adding up to 15" with all time record cold... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 42 this morning. Planted new grass a week ago and already an inch high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: All encouraging information. The state of the AO in December could provide insight. All of the duds from the above sample saw strongly positive December AO figures (+1.000 or above monthly averages). The sample size is small, so caution is still in order. The -3 or lower October -AO drop is usually followed by at least one month from Dec to Mar with a -1.000 AO or lower monthly reading. 2014-2015 was an interesting case where we saw a strongly + AO Dec-Mar instead. The winter pattern with record cold and heavy snows followed the November near record -EPO pattern instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, snywx said: 36 for a low here 35 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The -3 or lower October -AO drop is usually followed by at least one month from Dec to Mar with a -1.000 AO or lower monthly reading. 2014-2015 was an interesting case where we saw a strongly + AO Dec-Mar instead. The winter pattern with record cold and heavy snows followed the November near record -EPO pattern instead. Yes. That's right. So far, at least for those of us who like snowfall, things are looking encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: All encouraging information. The state of the AO in December could provide insight. All of the duds from the above sample saw strongly positive December AO figures (+1.000 or above monthly averages). The sample size is small, so caution is still in order. most of the Decembers with various enso were mild if the ao was positive for December on average...1983 was an exception but only because it went way positive the last ten days...2012-13, 1984-85, 1981-82 are the none el nino's...1984 had a positive ao on average and the other two were negative...none of them were any good in December...snowfall for December was below average except for 1984...all three winters recovered to have average snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: most of the Decembers with various enso were mild if the ao was positive for December on average...1983 was an exception but only because it went way positive the last ten days...2012-13, 1984-85, 1981-82 are the none el nino's...1984 had a positive ao on average and the other two were negative...none of them were any good in December...snowfall for December was below average except for 1984...all three winters recovered to have average snowfall... That's true. By December, there's a pretty good correlation between temperatures and the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The -3 or lower October -AO drop is usually followed by at least one month from Dec to Mar with a -1.000 AO or lower monthly reading. 2014-2015 was an interesting case where we saw a strongly + AO Dec-Mar instead. The winter pattern with record cold and heavy snows followed the November near record -EPO pattern instead. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 3 hours ago, PB GFI said: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Also another study just came out in January linking October 500 mb patterns to winter. These very low October AO readings have a strong 500 mb height anomaly over the Russian Arctic Taymyr region like we are seeing this month so far. Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract A statistical method for 1-month lead prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) is suggested in the study. Predictors, independently constructed for each forecast based on October geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface (Z500), indicate that the strongest impact of October circulation on the wintertime AO originates from a Z500 anomaly over the Taymyr Peninsula which causes an anomalous October advection of the cold (warm) air to the central Arctic and warm (cold) air to the East Asia prior to winters of the positive (negative) AO polarity. Independent verification assessments based on the series of 30 forecasts of the December–February (DJF) AO index (AOI) reveal a high skill of the developed method, with correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DJF AOI being 0.61 and mean square skill score being 0.37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Nice cool shot this weekend then it looks like we warm up next week as we loose the -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Some fog covered areas near the Long Island Sound and in the NYC suburbs this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Nice cool shot this weekend then it looks like we warm up next week as we loose the -AO Euro looks really warm with numerous 70's next week and a chance of getting back to around 80 as the -AO relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Euro looks really warm with numerous 70's next week and a chance of getting back to around 80 as the -AO relaxes. from the 1910's to the 1960's NYC averaged over 80 for the October max...since 1970 the average is around 79...the 1940's averaged 85 for the max... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Euro looks really warm with numerous 70's next week and a chance of getting back to around 80 as the -AO relaxes. Really looks to warm up after this cold shot Friday night and into Saturday. September like weather from Sunday on it appears, with 70s possible pretty far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 8:15 PM, Kmlwx said: You're wrong. Hurricane Schwartz said so. He's better than you 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Euro looks really warm with numerous 70's next week and a chance of getting back to around 80 as the -AO relaxes. The long range euro has not been tht good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 59 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Really looks to warm up after this cold shot Friday night and into Saturday. September like weather from Sunday on it appears, with 70s possible pretty far inland. Great I love 70s this time of year. There's no need for freezing weather when snow is realistically another 2 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Great I love 70s this time of year. There's no need for freezing weather when snow is realistically another 2 months away. Right, I completely agree. 65° to 75° is really great around this time, very comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: The long range euro has not been tht good. GFS is coming on board now with near record highs in the low 80's next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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