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October 2016 Discussion/Obs


Rtd208

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21 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Very localized patches of very dense fog across Long Island this morning, but mostly clear, odd combination but it made for the most beautiful sunrise I've seen so far this year.

Yeah, very dense fog here in SW Suffolk this morning. It also shows up very well in the river valleys around the Northeast.

 

GOES11452016281lqyCJ0.jpg

 

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The 10/7/2016 0z GFS MOS is showing a low temperature of 47° for Monday, October 10 fr New York City. If accurate, that would be the City's first low temperature this season below 50°. The last time the first sub-50° occurred on October 10 or later was in 2010 when NYC also saw its first such reading on October 10. The latest such occurrence on record is October 20 in 2005.

The median date for the first < 50° during the last 10 years prior to 2016 is 10/4. In 80% of those years, the first such reading occurred in October. The earliest was 9/24 (2013). The latest was 10/12 (2007).

In recent decades, there has been a decline in the number of September days with minimum temperatures < 50° in New York City.

Percentage of September Days with Low Temperatures < 50° in NYC:

1951-80: 6.9%

1961-90: 7.1%

1971-00: 6.0%

1981-10: 4.6%

Last 30 Years (1987-2016): 3.8%

 

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We rarely had the AO drop below -3.00 in October before 2002 and now it's becoming a common occurrence.

 

Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month

2016....-3.200..estimate

2014...-3.993

2012...-3.195

2009...-3.415

2006...-3.192

2003...-3.297

2002...-5.098

1991...-3.044

1984...-3.087

1981....-3.076

1979....-3.471

 

ao.obs.gif

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Took this very impressive -AO drop just to get a few days coming up of a bit below normal temps for early October.

What little cold air is available in the Northern Hemisphere in mostly focused over Eurasia with smaller coverage 

over Western North America.

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_21.png

 

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Took this very impressive -AO drop just to get a few days coming up of a bit below normal temps for early October.

What little cold air is available in the Northern Hemisphere in mostly focused over Eurasia with smaller coverage 

over Western North America.

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_21.png

 

 

 

 

the -ao is preventing an all out torch...I still think the -ao is a good sign for the winter...

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