NortheastPAWx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 6:12 PM, Brian5671 said: Sharp cutoff over the city and west. Best rains NY/CT border east as well as central Nassau Cty eastward Expand Yep, verbatim - NJ especially gets shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 6:13 PM, NortheastPAWx said: Yep, verbatim - NJ especially gets shafted. Expand big bust potential if that convective band ends up 50 miles east, we'd all see close to nothing. The run verbatim is somewhat drier than the 0z run, best rains over CT now 1-2 inches versus 2-4 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Saturday looks damp and chilly for the entire area. Enjoy the 60's warlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 highest i got up to was 86f so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 NAM continues to show the NYC east Jackpot-quick shot of rain, in and out, Saturday's dry and windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 5:45 PM, Morris said: Central park at 83, tying record. Expand Broke it, 84. We'll see in a few hours if they hit 85 between hours before dropping again the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Today's record highs: 86 at BDR 87 at EWR 86 at LGA 84 at JFK 84 at ISP 85 at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 8:51 PM, Brian5671 said: Today's record highs: 86 at BDR 87 at EWR 86 at LGA 84 at JFK 84 at ISP 85 at NYC Expand Pretty impressive that BDR scores its second warmest day ever for the month October on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 8:51 PM, Brian5671 said: Today's record highs: 86 at BDR 87 at EWR 86 at LGA 84 at JFK 84 at ISP 85 at NYC Expand Won't see temps like this until next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Lee Goldberg saying going to feel like the 40's this weekend for warlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 85 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Was gorgeous today. Sad to watch the sun set on the final warm day of the year. Wish we could have today's weather 365 days a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Lol what happened to your 40s for highs...you were so confident off of one fantasy run...too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 9:52 PM, winterwarlock said: Lol what happened to your 40s for highs...you were so confident off of one fantasy run...too bad Expand Whether its 40's for actual highs or mid 50's and windy, it feels the same. The point is that it's really gonna feel like fall on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 9:52 PM, winterwarlock said: Lol what happened to your 40s for highs...you were so confident off of one fantasy run...too bad Expand Saturday could have a midnight high temperature with temps dropping through the 50s and into the 40s during the day. Sunday should be in the 50s to near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 9:52 PM, winterwarlock said: Lol what happened to your 40s for highs...you were so confident off of one fantasy run...too bad Expand Euro has us still in the upper 40's and low 50's Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 9:07 PM, Allsnow said: Won't see temps like this until next spring. Expand I remember thinking this a few weeks back... ... Okay, we probably won't hit 85+ again in 2016, but these significant warm-ups seem to keep happening. One BN month in the last, what, 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 9:07 PM, Allsnow said: Won't see temps like this until next spring. Expand Probably not, but I'm guessing we'll see the 70s again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 12:06 AM, JerseyWx said: Probably not, but I'm guessing we'll see the 70s again. Expand From the standpoint of standard deviations, 85F+ high temperatures are now becoming a > +3SD event as we progress deeper into October. Record daily highs are generally an accurate indicator of the upper range of possibilities in terms of what can occur (and the point at which one can declare, we're done until X season). Record daily highs are no longer much above 80 by the end of October, so we can safely rule out mid 80s at this point. However, there are plenty of record dailies in the 75-80 degree range through the first third of November. So it's conceivable, if an anomalous pattern permits, that 80 degrees could be achieved again (though more likely, 75-78F will be maximum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 The GFS has been rock solid consistent on showing very little rain for the area Friday/Saturday, the 00z run continues that theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 3:13 AM, Isotherm said: From the standpoint of standard deviations, 85F+ high temperatures are now becoming a > +3SD event as we progress deeper into October. Record daily highs are generally an accurate indicator of the upper range of possibilities in terms of what can occur (and the point at which one can declare, we're done until X season). Record daily highs are no longer much above 80 by the end of October, so we can safely rule out mid 80s at this point. However, there are plenty of record dailies in the 75-80 degree range through the first third of November. So it's conceivable, if an anomalous pattern permits, that 80 degrees could be achieved again (though more likely, 75-78F will be maximum). Expand I agree, we can certainly see 70s into November, especilaly with this pattern we've been in. As for today, it's incredible how warm it was. Could easily pass as a Summer day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 4:55 AM, Rtd208 said: The GFS has been rock solid consistent on showing very little rain for the area Friday/Saturday, the 00z run continues that theme. Expand rest of the models bailed on the big rains.... .25 at best now for most of us. GFS wins this one unless there's a shift back today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 11:53 AM, Brian5671 said: rest of the models bailed on the big rains.... .25 at best now for most of us. GFS wins this one unless there's a shift back today Expand If you're relying on a small convective area to bring heavy precip, more often than not it's a loser to bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Departures thru 10/19 NYC: +3.4 EWR: +3.2 LGA: +4.3 JFK: +2.3 TTN: +3.5 PHL: +3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 4:55 AM, Rtd208 said: The GFS has been rock solid consistent on showing very little rain for the area Friday/Saturday, the 00z run continues that theme. Expand and the models are shifting towards the GFS GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Looks like a colder shot of air mid week after the shot this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 11:53 AM, Brian5671 said: rest of the models bailed on the big rains.... .25 at best now for most of us. GFS wins this one unless there's a shift back today Expand There's the trend and the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Doesn't seem to matter the model lately, just go with the driest...whether gfs, euro, cmc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Gfs wants to end the growing season for many Tuesday night. Tons of leaves down this week and grass is slowing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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