Rtd208 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Made it down to 38 with some widespread frost, nice start to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 So much for that October heat wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 .54 here for a 3 day period. Looks like we all get a period of showers this afternoon. 57 and sheet drizzle feels like October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 With clouds and onshore flow past 4 days, have not managed any better than a 5 degree diurnal temp range...also picked up 0.62" rain for event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Biggest AO drop in the forecast since April. We'll see if this is an early October precursor to the winter pattern or not. Not much cold available outside Siberia or Western North America as the Arctic really warms up relative to the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Biggest AO drop in the forecast since April. We'll see if this is an early October precursor to the winter pattern or not. Not much cold available outside Siberia or Western North America as the Arctic really warms up relative to the means. Give us that in winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Give us that in winter! Only one winter with below normal snowfall in the winters following a -2.5 or lower AO in October. The interesting thing about 06-07 was that while we had the -AO in February with cold , we were unlucky to get an ice and sleet storm instead of snowstorm on Valentine's day. 2014-15 was all about the extreme -EPO drop in November carrying over into winter instead of the October pattern. October -AO drops below -2.5 since 2002 and following winters: OCT 2015...AN snow OCT 2014...AN snow OCT 2012...N to AN snow OCT 2010...AN snow OCT 2009..AN snow OCT 2006...BN snow with cold and -AO in February OCT 2003...AN snow OCT 2002...AN snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The drought carries on, looks like another fairly dry week following the cut off low bust o rama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: The drought carries on, looks like another fairly dry week following the cut off low bust o rama. This is starting to become insane. Watching all that moisture ride up the coast only to desolve at the last second. 6 days of cloudiness and less then .5 to show for it here on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like among the strongest October AO drops coming up. Only 10 years since 1950 have had October daily AO readings below -3.0. These types of very impressive October -AO readings were rare before 2002. Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month 2014...-3.993 2012...-3.195 2009...-3.415 2006...-3.192 2003...-3.297 2002...-5.098 1991...-3.044 1984...-3.087 1981....-3.076 1979....-3.471 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ended up with some heavy rain here overnight. .40 fell in about 15-20 minutes, was coming down so hard it woke me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ended up with some heavy rain here overnight. .40 fell in about 15-20 minutes, was coming down so hard it woke me up i got close to .5" from a tiny cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like among the strongest October AO drops coming up. Only 10 years since 1950 have had October daily AO readings below -3.0. These types of very impressive October -AO readings were rare before 2002. Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month 2014...-3.993 2012...-3.195 2009...-3.415 2006...-3.192 2003...-3.297 2002...-5.098 1991...-3.044 1984...-3.087 1981....-3.076 1979....-3.471 The winters following those Octobers since 2002 should provide some encouragement for those of us who yearn for a snowy winter; decent correlation there. The current, prolonged drought gives me some pause, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, Eduardo said: The winters following those Octobers since 2002 should provide some encouragement for those of us who yearn for a snowy winter; decent correlation there. The current, prolonged drought gives me some pause, however. I wouldn't focus on the current drought for the coming winter. Synoptic systems and Strataform rains/snow will not depend as much on things like local soil moisture content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 If you look closely enough at KOKX radar, you can see converging boundaries over central Long Island creating rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn't focus on the current drought for the coming winter. Synoptic systems and Strataform rains/snow will not depend as much on things like local soil moisture content. Oh no doubt re: soil moisture. I'm just more concerned that suppression seems to have been the name of the game for quite some time now. Hope it doesn't continue through the winter! Many other factors to take into account and hopefully they all align in our favor. Dying for some exciting weather here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Wouldn't a storm like Matthew help eat away at the warm waters in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 14 hours ago, Eduardo said: The winters following those Octobers since 2002 should provide some encouragement for those of us who yearn for a snowy winter; decent correlation there. The current, prolonged drought gives me some pause, however. here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...8 of 12 had either historic snowstorms or cold or both... 1960...-1.187...-1.506...historic winter... 1966...-1.077...-0.576...historic winter... 1968...-1.013...-2.967...close to historic... 1974...-1.024....1.595...mild with less snow... 1976...-0.804...-3.767...historic cold... 1979...-1.243...-2.066...AO was no help up here... 1981...-1.167...-0.883...historic cold... 2002...-1.489...-0.472...historic winter... 2006...-1.029....2.034...mild snowless with one cold month... 2009...-1.540...-2.587...historic winter... 2012...-1.514...-0.610...mild with average snow... 2014...-1.134....1.092...close to historic despite the plus ao in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Thanks uncle our board historian! I will take those odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looks like a shot of cool air coming to start next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 2:05 PM, bluewave said: Looks like among the strongest October AO drops coming up. Only 10 years since 1950 have had October daily AO readings below -3.0. These types of very impressive October -AO readings were rare before 2002. Octobers with daily -AO readings of -3.0 or lower and the lowest reading that month 2014...-3.993 2012...-3.195 2009...-3.415 2006...-3.192 2003...-3.297 2002...-5.098 1991...-3.044 1984...-3.087 1981....-3.076 1979....-3.471 do you have the dates of those indices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 33 minutes ago, forkyfork said: do you have the dates of those indices? Here's the link. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Visibility of about 100' on the eastern half of the TZ bridge this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 23 hours ago, uncle W said: here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...8 of 12 had either historic snowstorms or cold or both... Ensembles hinting that we could be in for another -1.00 or lower -AO month in addition to the very low daily numbers coming up. Quite a trend for the 2000's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Interestingly, for only the second time in my 35 years living on the UES of Manhattan, dew fell last night. This is cooborated by obs - at LGA by the water, temp got within 4 degrees of the dew point, and I guess here the car hoods got just cold enough. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 39 for a low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 US drought monitor expands the severe drought further west across the area on the update today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Can't make this stuff up....drough roars on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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