12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not feeling it.

Nope.  Not even drought busting rains coming. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My first guess is a fish.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My first guess is a fish.

Yeah, the kicker may come pushing through the mid-west and send it bye-bye. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not trying to be silly, though....far, far too early to know for sure.

If this ever did take a GEFS mean track, that would get really scary up here with those very warm ssts.

[ice1972]

I mean at some point 1938 Is gonna come knockin and nothin you can do.....may as well be now.....

[Ginx snewx]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not trying to be silly, though....far, far too early to know for sure.

If this ever did take a GEFS mean track, that would get really scary up here with those very warm ssts.

a week of Ne winds will cool those 68 degree SSTS even more 

[Ginx snewx]

GFS way out to sea ya

[CoastalWx]

Fishy fishy on Gfs.

[ice1972]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS way out to sea ya

Yeah trough is way west and not negative so fishy fish

[ROOSTA]

OP Models are still in la-la land. Ensembles, prudent way to look at this juncture. I'm keying on how far W this tracks, just not buying the sharp N turn. A few ticks W on longitude changes the game dramatically S to N out in time. Intensity is the wild-card in conjunction as to where the weakness develops in the steering currents.    

[blizzard24]

the gfs comes very close to the east coast and sne area not totally out to sea .

[moneypitmike]

9 hours ago, dryslot said:

I agree, I look forward to the tracking of a system and its almost like a let down when it arrives or passes, I then start looking for the next one

 

Kind of like Christmas.

My gut tells me that by Sunday the foliage thread will have more excitement than this one.

[Damage In Tolland]

What a colossal waste of time. 

Zero chance of an East coast hit now. Buh bye Matt

[CT Valley Snowman]

This thread is a joke.  The title is crazy, it was done prematurely, and now we have all kinds of wishcasting and bittercasting.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

This thread is a joke.  The title is crazy, it was done prematurely, and now we have all kinds of wishcasting and bittercasting.

Sorry you are a bit upset.. but there's now a N stream kicker OTS that had not been modeled until the 00z runs. What can you do? 

[Hazey]

This thread is a joke.  The title is crazy, it was done prematurely, and now we have all kinds of wishcasting and bittercasting.

Just a warm up for winter 2016-17. Get used to it.

[dryslot]

 

Kind of like Christmas.

My gut tells me that by Sunday the foliage thread will have more excitement than this one.

Yes! On to tracking leaf drop!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hoth]

Meh, GFS kicks it the last few runs, but still coming up the coast, which is all I care to see at 200 hours. If I can squeeze some PRE rains, I'll consider that an epic win.

[Hoth]

70mph, 995mb. Strongest winds found northwest of the center.

[CoastalWx]

You only have yourself to blame if you get emotionally invested. That said, a lot of time left for these tough to model TCs.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pretty remarkable the difference between the GFs and Euro right now.  The further S this thing tracks the less likely any impact will be felt up here.  

[CT Valley Snowman]

I think it's too early to make any definitive conclusions except the modeling has shifted east and somewhat slower and the Gulf of Mexico is now less likely.  Yes, there is less modeling showing a direct impact on the East Coast but there is still ensemble members showing a more direct impact and there's plenty of time for changes. Saying there is a 0% chance of an East Coast,  especially for an area like the Outer Banks, is definitely premature.

[OceanStWx]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You only have yourself to blame if you get emotionally invested. That said, a lot of time left for these tough to model TCs.

Any definitive call one way or another is pure hyperbole at this point. 

[dryslot]

No one should be posting in absolutes at this point

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

No one should be posting in absolutes at this point

He's absolutely right.

[ROOSTA]

Awaiting the Fella's cryosphere thread.  An annual right of passage to the real season. Nobody jinx it. and allow Jerry the honor.
Can't get real on this threat until Saturday. Definitely slower but we'll see.
Butterfly fart theory in full effect.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No one should be posting in absolutes at this point

yeah, ...but is this statement of yours 'bargaining' ?   

like, is it somehow conciliatory that if one believes in that, that means there must then still be hope for a dystopian high?  

   i'm just bustin balls - but there is some perverted truth in there just the same.

i think the 'absolute' nature of those posts are motivated because folks are seeing the negative potential here - heh, it is what it is.

i will say that the patten et al and in the large scope is very uncorrelated to historic inference - to put it nicely...  it direct terms? WRONG. 

but, as Scott or whom ever that was intimated, there is still a lot of time to change it back to the 'denude NYC off the face of the planet' vision of sugarplums the previous model ideas sparked in the presently bereived imaginations..  

need that trough out around 110 W to not be negatively tilted W of ORD like that..  that means by pure wave-space arguments alone that there is ridging right where the previous track ideas were lane before.  that is an evolved change over since about 2 days ago... but again, it could all be modulated back toward something similar to the previous idea - sure... and no, that is not bargaining   

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Awaiting the Fella's cryosphere thread.  An annual right of passage to the real season. Nobody jinx it. and allow Jerry the honor.
Can't get real on this threat until Saturday. Definitely slower but we'll see.
Butterfly fart theory in full effect.

This one?

 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, ...but is this statement of yours 'bargaining' ?   

like, is it somehow conciliatory that if one believes in that, that means there must then still be hope for a dystopian high?  

   i'm just bustin balls - but there is some perverted truth in there just the same.

i think the 'absolute' nature of those posts are motivated because folks are seeing the negative potential here - heh, it is what it is.

i will say that the patten et al and in the large scope is very uncorrelated to historic inference - to put it nicely...  it direct terms? WRONG. 

but, as Scott or whom ever that was intimated, there is still a lot of time to change it back to the 'denude NYC off the face of the planet' vision of sugarplums the previous model ideas sparked in the presently bereived imaginations..  

need that trough out around 110 W to not be negatively tilted W of ORD like that..  that means by pure wave-space arguments alone that there is ridging right where the previous track ideas were lane before.  that is an evolved change over since about 2 days ago... but again, it could all be modulated back toward something similar to the previous idea - sure... and no, that is not bargaining   

Yeah, And it was opposite yesterday and a day or two back when most guidance was showing a LI-Block LF, Jury is still out this far in time, Just like in winter, Its a timing and thread the needle deal, You have the GFS and Euro in two vastly different camps so you really can't say one way or the other if it hits or fish until there is more model consensus and we won't be seeing that for at least a few more days, Meanwhile, We watch, We wait.............

[ROOSTA]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This one?

 

oops.

Guess I have to be more attentive. Always thought Oct 1 was the go date...