Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat. I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm. If this is still the case after all these years, people should just stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat. I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm. Reasons why seldom does one directly LF New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z Euro going the way of the GFS splitting the uprights between Cuba/Haiti. A lot slower to do so though by a good 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Euro is so slow. I still think it's got issues with what it has for a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat. I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm. First time replying to anything since I have become a member, but I always like your insight to everything, People live and die by each Op model one 8-10 days out. I'm sure the 18z GFS and the 0Z model suite will have a completely different solution (more OTS or landfall some place) and people will bite once again. Question, though, how much stake should we put into the hurricane models (GFDL and HWRF) at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is so slow. I still think it's got issues with what it has for a solution. Agreed. We've seen this in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I've been posting in this thread just once a day since this storm is so far away time wise. Yesterday's 12Z Euro had Matthew approaching SE Florida. Today (way out at day 9) it meanders it slowly NNE through the SE Bahamas as a 920 something storm. At the end of its run the storm is still very slowly moving NE. High pressure is along the east coast. Timing is everything. Yesterday I posted it looked like a west model trend. Today it looks like an east model trend. Different day, different solution. Crazy to speculate this far out but I still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is so slow. I still think it's got issues with what it has for a solution. In terms of track, it caved to the GFS early on. Timing later in the run obviously diverges quite drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The HWRF and GFDL are some of the more unstable models. I've seen some crazy solutions from them with past storms...I usually don't take those individual members to the bank at all. I think this far out, you're better off looking at the blend of tropical models and looking at two things. Clustering and D/Dprog of the models.....the change with respect to what the previous runs had. Try to establish a trend. However, look at all the moving parts at 500mb. That will take many days to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The HWRF and GFDL are some of the more unstable models. I've seen some crazy solutions from them with past storms...I usually don't take those individual members to the bank at all. I think this far out, you're better off looking at the blend of tropical models and looking at two things. Clustering and D/Dprog of the models.....the change with respect to what the previous runs had. Try to establish a trend. However, look at all the moving parts at 500mb. That will take many days to figure out. Thanks Coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 That bizarre WSW tuck causes the missed turn north and hence slower solution from the ECMWF. GFS and other guidance aren't really showing that. Euro could be right, but it did move towards the GFS early on as Bob said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Intensity also has an impact on the forward motion of TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 it's changed (the Euro) it's extended larger synoptic evolution substantially in just three runs. it's almost completely lost the MW trough idea and has an east-central ridge axis now during it's late middle to extended range - that orientation of large scale features would spare everyone in the contiguous, period - but it is one run so... meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 It's just something to watch and track. No sense getting worked up one way or the other. its in a good spot for now for strengthening at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's just something to watch and track. No sense getting worked up one way or the other. its in a good spot for now for strengthening at least i almost wonder (...and probably would take Schadenfreude if it did) ... if people would be happier if this thing ended the world for 50 consecutive runs, all guidance species ... and then it hooked with 6 hours remaining and gave absolutely nothing. it seems to be that the emotional thing is tied into the scary drama/dystopian element in the run-up to the event more than the event its self in a lot of case. fascinating... 'don't dare rip off our omen points' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Congrats St Lucia. Beautiful island. Seconded. But it looks like the wind is pretty lopsided. Martinique 32G50KT and Vigie Airport on St. Lucia is 12003KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That bizarre WSW tuck causes the missed turn north and hence slower solution from the ECMWF. GFS and other guidance aren't really showing that. Euro could be right, but it did move towards the GFS early on as Bob said. It's like when Joaquin did the SW tuck, models didn't handle that well at all. Plus you have such a blocky pattern across North America with that cut off sitting there, and we know how well models develop/break down blocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i almost wonder (...and probably would take Schadenfreude if it did) ... if people would be happier if this thing ended the world for 50 consecutive runs, all guidance species ... and then it hooked with 6 hours remaining and gave absolutely nothing. it seems to be that the emotional thing is tied into the scary drama/dystopian element in the run-up to the event more than the event its self in a lot of case. fascinating... 'don't dare rip off our omen points' I know that for many people, the run up is at least as fun....myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That bizarre WSW tuck causes the missed turn north and hence slower solution from the ECMWF. GFS and other guidance aren't really showing that. Euro could be right, but it did move towards the GFS early on as Bob said. Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know that for many people, the run up is at least as fun....myself included. I agree, I look forward to the tracking of a system and its almost like a let down when it arrives or passes, I then start looking for the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: I agree, I look forward to the tracking of a system and its almost like a let down when it arrives or passes, I then start looking for the next one do you feel ripped off by a positive bust? the very best of which have essentially zero run-up. in December 1997, there was 0 run-up to a 15 to 24" interior society haulter. In that era there was a Norlun in PWM that ran up to 18" in a forecast of 1-3" those events eclipse the 90th percentile for snow production and how ZERO run up. haha. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 18z has the center cross just south of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Joaquin Yeah but that's a bizAre track for so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know that for many people, the run up is at least as fun....myself included. It's not the kill...it's the thrill of the chase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 interesting to see this .. the 18z GFDL (essentially the tropical version of the GFS) has finally latched onto the hard right and appears to match dead sights on present mean to do so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 GFDL does that sw motion early on that's in its wheelhouse anything after 72 GFDL is usually out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 Matthew looks to be a hurricane by morning, large windfield, especially on the northern side of the circulation where hurricane force winds are found at flight level. Plus the stronger and faster it occurs, he will be further east in the Atlantic Ocean north of the Greater Antilles. He looks real good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 89mph gust on Martinique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willyvonka Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I'm feeling this one guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.