12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE

[dryslot]

And i was going to lock up a 10 day prog this run, Oh well

[WinterWolf]

And there it is...off to the east as we were expecting.  Something always saves us here in NE.

[Hoth]

Look to the ensembles, Elaine, look to the ensembles.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Congrats Nova Scotia

[MaineJayhawk]

"hy brid storm brings feet of meh to SNE"

[Heisy]

Obviously everyone realizes this but with the GFS solution it would really all depend on the speed of the TS & the speed of the trough crossing the US. Would they interact in time? has me interested to say the least. Truth is the ingredients/pattern are there for something special, if that actually happens? Probably not. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

NHC 5 day cone puts it right over Jamaica on Monday morning

Well, we know where it won't go.....

Those dumb cones are not directly representative on any particular guidance....rather more of an NHC construct of sorts....

[Lava Rock]

never bought into this. I'm just bitter with all of the "missed" events over the last year. Everything either goes north or south. Or in this case, east.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And there it is...off to the east as we were expecting.  Something always saves us here in NE.

Good gollyjunipers..what a terrible post

[dryslot]

As in all cases, It comes down to timing

[Typhoon Tip]

jesus ..

wtf are you guys talking about? 

this is 4 day minimum away from the longitude of Haiti at all of 15 deg N!    ...and you're bugging out with dour intone postings and rage over and about 200-hour solutions off the MA? 

 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

never bought into this. I'm just bitter with all of the "missed" events over the last year. Everything either goes north or south. Or in this case, east.

Yeah, Its 240+ out so we should just move on

[Lava Rock]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, Its 240+ out so we should just move on

I'l bet a 12 pack of your fav beer it's a miss.

 

[dryslot]

I'l bet a 12 pack of your fav beer it's a miss.

 

Lol


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[dendrite]

This is why we can't have 10d threads.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is why we should never have 10d threads.

Agree

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

Just now, dendrite said:

This is why we can't have 10d threads.

Hyperbole is lost on a few in here.

[ORH_wxman]

This thread should probably be locked until Sunday or Monday. This is worse than discussing a weenie gfs blizzard at D9-10...TCs are harder to forecast than synoptic storms. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This thread should probably be locked until Sunday or Monday. This is worse than discussing a weenie gfs blizzard at D9-10...TCs are harder to forecast than synoptic storms. 

Eh, it's more a model discussion thread to me at this point.  Non-specific.

[dryslot]

12z GEFS takes it over Ack FWIW

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GEFS takes it over Ack FWIW

Plenty of solutions in there with significant sensible impact for NE. Drought busters ubiquitous.

[dryslot]

Plenty of solutions in there with significant sensible impact for NE. Drought busters ubiquitous.

Yeah, The rain would be welcomed, Some folks wells have dried up up here


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[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good gollyjunipers..what a terrible post

And you should know...you've posted a billion of them.

 

And it was Sarcasm BTW.   Certainly not locking in a day 10 GFS Operational run.   

 

But many more times than not, something saves us up here from getting a good hit from a Tropical Cyclone...that part is true.  It does happen from time to time, but that's the exception rather than the norm.   

Hoping for some significant rains from it however...whatever the final outcome is...we could all use it!! 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Eh, it's more a model discussion thread to me at this point.  Non-specific.

 

It was more tongue-in-cheek...but people shouldn't be obsessing over a track of a TC at D9 that has probably <5% chance of affecting us in any significant way. The guidance is almost meaningless right now...maybe ensembles are marginally useful right now. TCs are so hard to predict with all the weak steering mechanisms in the summer/early fall.

[klw]

1 hour ago, klw said:

The whiff.  Storm cancel locked in.

 

Just to clear, this is an attempt at sarcasm.

While this is still a ways off having a tracking thread is perfectly fine in my book as the storm is named and has shown up on many runs of many models.  Plus what else do we have to track at the moment besides caterpillar hair, Siberian snow expansion, leaf color, PF's preseason sweater purchases, summer temperature anomalies, and rainfall deficits.

 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Swing and a miss.

That captures my last two winters.  I must be in fall training.

 

55*

[Bostonseminole]

Lock it up, is a disaster in here


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[Typhoon Tip]

i don't see why this particular change between the 06z and 12z runs of the oper. GFS should warrant any more grousing then the differences between the prior series. 

they did EXACTLY THE SAME THING. hit no hit hit no hit... on off...on off.  and that behavior is completely in the expectation curve for modeling performance at this range - in fact, it's better than normal that we have as much consistency as we do. really. 

i think folks are guilty of slipping back into the old under-hat tendency to rely upon later runs as gospel -you're pretty clearly allowing yourself be guided by the fervor/emotion of the moment rather than - well... no sense beating the obvious.  

i'd say, no different than any run that was a direct impactor vs one that is miss, either has about 1% chance of occurring precisely as either has recently been modeled.  zippo difference... 

you guys are like super-sensitive to this stuff like it's a drug and you're at risk of missing out on your next high.  ha! 

[powderfreak]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This thread should probably be locked until Sunday or Monday. This is worse than discussing a weenie gfs blizzard at D9-10...TCs are harder to forecast than synoptic storms. 

Folks anxious for something...anything...weather wise to happen.

This is snowstorm preseason, have to let everyone warm up.

I can't believe we are talking about deterministic solutions though lol.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Folks anxious for something...anything...weather wise to happen.

This is snowstorm preseason, have to let everyone warm up.

I can't believe we are talking about deterministic solutions though lol.

 

Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat.

 

I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm.