ORH_wxman Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What a weird track on the GFS. Straight north like that seems rare Only 228 hours out...almost time to put up the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 There are sections of CUBA that aren't bad....but I think the eastern tip is pretty high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The last few runs of the GFS really do have a Hazel look about things, especially the hard turn north in the Caribbean and the general feel to the path. No idea if the other components to things are similar at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only 228 hours out...almost time to put up the warnings. la la la lock it in. One sleepy eye on it at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 NHC initiating advisories on TS Matthew at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I think I'm growing a little more confident in avoiding a fish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 We have our Tropical Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are sections of CUBA that aren't bad....but I think the eastern tip is pretty high... Whole southern/eastern end is mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Whole southern/eastern end is mountains. It certainly disrupted Sandy. Came in an intensifying low end cat 3 and never looked the same after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Right to 50kts. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, Hoth said: It certainly disrupted Sandy. Came in an intensifying low end cat 3 and never looked the same after. Looks like they are upwards of 5000' peaks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 64 kt flight level wind. NHC will keep stratus swirls named, but go from an invest to a 50kt TS. LOL. in their defense ... they did say multiple times that the system was likely to be upgraded to TD or directly to TS status upon recon fixing ... plus, i've also noticed a distinct tonality shift on NHC for/when systems are nearing "meaningful" threat criteria - which includes, actually imposing any on man. heh. seriously.. they let DIVORAC entities ride out in midst of the Sargasso Sea and beyond and only seem to pull the trigger on cataloging if the feature gets very obvious. but, if a cumulous cloud start rotating 300 miles west of the FL Keys they got an orange-x'er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I think the ability to recover is influenced by the ambient envt. upon initial interaction.....ie, if it makes LF in a favorable atmospheric regime, it should be able to recover more readily....assuming conditions do not rapidly deteriorate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Regardless if it gets shredded by the islands it should remain a potent system one way or another. Some solutions are scary for Florida or somewhere up the east coast. Looking less like a fish storm. I just hope it brings drought denting/ending rain up here. As much as l like 'canes I don't want to see deaths or destruction like a Hazel, 38 or even Sanday. Weakened tropical system flying up the coast would be fine for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Congrats St Lucia. Beautiful island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: One thing not being discussed is Shredola . Hopefully it avoids those islands, but if not it certainly may affect development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With deep trough digging over Midwest as modeled now and blocking high to NE.. fair chance whereever it makes landfall,, that it rips north from there . Trough looks to be long gone on modeling before Mathew is able to interact with it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only 228 hours out...almost time to put up the warnings. hahaha - oh man... still, i'm personally impressed that the models are so unanimous and most importantly, have been for like three days when talking about 180+ time leads. , obviously that can be the case and still have this thing end up over Houston ..sure. But, Sandy did this in the models. Let's keep that in mind; sometimes these bigger sort of physical presence in the numerical guidance will "weather the storm" of modeling noise ... get picked up way ahead with some consistency (and for lack of better word, "feel"). Sandy had that. So did the Super Storm 1993... Not sure this thing has the feel (so to speak) just yet, but that consistency in the runs at least through 120 hours is ominous as far as whatever implications that has... Haiti and the outer Bahamas perhaps. whatever happens up the coast is likely ...well, IS coming down to accurately handling the fore-vision of the flow medium in the 110 - 70 W longitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: hahaha - oh man... still, i'm personally impressed that the models are so unanimous and most importantly, have been for like three days when talking about 180+ time leads. , obviously that can be the case and still have this thing end up over Houston ..sure. But, Sandy did this in the models. Let's keep that in mind; sometimes these bigger sort of physical presence in the numerical guidance "weather the storm" of modeling noise ... get picked up way ahead with some consistency (and for lack of better word, "feel"). Sandy had that. So did the Super Storm 1993... Yep.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are sections of CUBA that aren't bad....but I think the eastern tip is pretty high... is that what they call it down there - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 One worst case (most boring) scenario that I am beginning to fear is path that prolongs time over Cuba before only reemerging briefly before veering up the FL peninsula.....god, that would blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 NHC 5 day cone puts it right over Jamaica on Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Euro gonna eat it. Go USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro gonna eat it. Go USA. Splitting the uprights on the 12z run today. Right between Cuba/Haiti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Shoots the gap on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Much sooner northward jog at 12z today. Looks like it may miss the east coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Hello Further east, as it was inland at this point at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The whiff. Storm cancel locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 BM track for 18-24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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