Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: AWIPS. But I'm not really sure the specifics of what gets truncated and what doesn't on the NCEP site. Ah, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just for kicks and info regarding the 18z hipster run of the GFS, Michael would bring 85-95 knot winds to Cape Cod at about 5,000 feet, wind gusting to 95mph, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 This may end up going FL or west of there. Unsure of east coast. I suppose SE coast is threat. Lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 20 hours ago, dryslot said: That it was Is this why they use "L" in the naming convention for invests? 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty much a Bob track....eastern LI and CC/islands would be devastated, but it would be pretty manageable for the rest of the area. As is the case for most of us in the vast majority of tropical threats. 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This may end up going FL or west of there Tallahassee or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Could try a HaZEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Could try a HaZEL. Definitely a key memory of my boyhood. Tops of railroad wire polls blowing down the street like tumbleweed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Euro is burying this thing. What's a ~1000mi difference between the 2 major models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could try a HaZEL. We'd like a Hazel hook into Li .. moving NW. Oh how we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Actually looking closer, FL to NC is certainly a threat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually looking closer, FL to NC is certainly a threat right now. Then perhaps due north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually looking closer, FL to NC is certainly a threat right now. Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I agree, Florida to NC is certainly on the table. I feel the odds of it getting up to SNE(not making landfall prior, and not turning out to sea to the northeast) are very low..as is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Recon finding some impressive winds, If they can locate a low center, Looks like we may have TS Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 With deep trough digging over Midwest as modeled now and blocking high to NE.. fair chance whereever it makes landfall,, that it rips north from there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 One thing not being discussed is Shredola . Hopefully it avoids those islands, but if not it certainly may affect development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Current forecast track has Matthew tracking NNW over Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: One thing not being discussed is Shredola . Hopefully it avoids those islands, but if not it certainly may affect development Most of the modeling I've seen takes it across eastern Cuba. At this juncture, Hispaniola doesn't appear to be in play. If development happens more quickly than expected, however, that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: One thing not being discussed is Shredola . Hopefully it avoids those islands, but if not it certainly may affect development I'm more concerned with Cuba, than I am Hispanola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Whip out those topo maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Cuba is usually less of an issue than shrederrola. It's going to cross land at some point unless it somehow shoots the gap. I doubt it will shoot the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 64 kt flight level wind. NHC will keep stratus swirls named, but go from an invest to a 50kt TS. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Vortex95 is getting very excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Its looking more and more its going over eastern Cuba then shooting the gap right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 64 kt flight level wind. NHC will keep stratus swirls named, but go from an invest to a 50kt TS. LOL. Any sign of closed circulation yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Vortex95 is getting very excited. Let me know when his family homestead is in peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its looking more and more its going over eastern Cuba then shooting the gap right now Yes...I just hope it doesn't cross into the GOM.....because it will end up in the northern portion, which is a recipe for a collapser prior to LF, as it ingests drier air off of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Whip out those topo maps... Is Cuba hilly/mountainous? I should know this Google ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 What a weird track on the GFS. Straight north like that seems rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...I just hope it doesn't cross into the GOM.....because it will end up in the northern portion, which is a recipe for a collapser prior to LF. That's where most systems over the last several years have gone to die...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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