Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:03 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Matthew will have no problem surviving the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti Expand i meant the buoy.. see the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:03 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Matthew will have no problem surviving the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti Expand He meant the buoy. Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 46.6 kts Wind Gust (GST): 56.3 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 27.6 ft Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec Average Period (APD): 8.6 sec Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 63 deg true ) Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.30 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.18 in ( Falling Rapidly ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.0 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 50.5 kts Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 52.4 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Not quite there on the 12z runs, but tantalizing nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On the visible GOES loop, it appears as though that blob of convection that's been on the far east side may be getting entrained now in the outer circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:00 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: they weren't talking about this thread per se Tip, but in the past. Expand Well... whether they were or not - some friendly advice: you can't promote yourself in here. the repeat users .. it never sets well with them... people are douchy. not just in here, in general, in life...society, the world, Humanity. there is uneven and iniquitous distribution recognition overall. certainly 'celebrity' is petty handled. every action and reaction between members of our species (haha, but seriously..) contains instances of erosive unfairness, or unwarranted adoration ... integrated overall and sometimes eclat ends up with no credit at all, while idiots dictate the shining of the sun. that said, i am not personally aware of any reasons you may deserve accolades for forecasting. even if so, ... it doesn't matter? seriously it doesn't. you could predict the end of the world; you aren't getting invited to the white house because of your contribution in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:21 PM, 78Blizzard said: On the visible GOES loop, it appears as though that blob of convection that's been on the far east side may be getting entrained now in the outer circulation. Expand Definitely not as pronounced as it has been the last few days. The outflow channels are looking really nice now too. Perhaps we'll see an expanding wind field later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 7:23 PM, PeabodyFlood said: If we really want Matthew to make its way up here then we need coastal to deliver the timeless "not happening, James." Expand Getting close, but still a lot of time. Given the hype I'm dealing with already....I'm hoping it does and leaves me along for Columbus Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Better off just leaving this thing alone for a day or two and then looking again, too many complexities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Guys, take a look at this latest vis. image. The tropical disturbance NE of the Lesser Antilles looks like its starting to get that "spin" look. Moving NW. If that starts getting its act together more than the models are indicating won't that really pull Matthew further NE once it gets up into the Bahamas? I wonder if this is a larger wildcard that we might be missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:25 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Well... whether they were or not - some friendly advice: you can't promote yourself in here. the repeat users .. it never sets well with them... people are douchy. not just in here, in general, in life...society, the world, Humanity. there is uneven and iniquitous distribution recognition overall. certainly 'celebrity' is petty handled. every action and reaction between members of our species (haha, but seriously..) contains instances of erosive unfairness, or unwarranted adoration ... integrated overall and sometimes eclat ends up with no credit at all, while idiots dictate the shining of the sun. that said, i am not personally aware of any reasons you may deserve accolades for forecasting. even if so, ... it doesn't matter? seriously it doesn't. you could predict the end of the world; you aren't getting invited to the white house because of your contribution in here. Expand Can we get on topic please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:41 PM, OSUmetstud said: Better off just leaving this thing alone for a day or two and then looking again, too many complexities. Expand agreed! ... wait to over hear it at the water cooler by loiters that just happened to catch 'wind' of it on the radio on the way to the office - then you go back to your desk and sneak a peek and there's a hurricane watch all the way up to the Islands ... or NS. or not - but save ur selves the aggravation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:41 PM, OSUmetstud said: Better off just leaving this thing alone for a day or two and then looking again, too many complexities. Expand Heck no, we could be witnessing some history here whereby the models and the NHC haven't been able to pin this one down from day one through day eight now, including the timing, not that anyone expects that of them given the nature of TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:45 PM, wxeyeNH said: Guys, take a look at this latest vis. image. The tropical disturbance NE of the Lesser Antilles looks like its starting to get that "spin" look. Moving NW. If that starts getting its act together more than the models are indicating won't that really pull Matthew further NE once it gets up into the Bahamas? I wonder if this is a larger wildcard that we might be missing? Expand among the myeriad of plausible influences on Matt's track .. sure, one in a large number. in fact, go look at the CMC evolution - it actually uses that feature to carve out a hole in the ridge N of Bermuda and uses that weakness to pull Matt early.. NHC has an invest on that and have upgraded it to 30%chance for development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Getting close, but still a lot of time. Given the hype I'm dealing with already....I'm hoping it does and leaves me along for Columbus Day weekend. Expand Oh I strongly agree, worth watching but up in the air as far as any EC impacts go. It won't take much to push the hype machine into overdrive as we get closer. It's been hard enough to talk with friends about some of these model solutions while reminding them that "well, none of this really means anything up here yet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 6:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, check the gradient between that big lakes high and Matthew.....give me that set up in 3 months Expand Lol, 1030 to 940. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:53 PM, Hoth said: Lol, 1030 to 940. That is impressive. Expand there's a basic index-finger-rule that works to close approximation: 1 kt = 1 mb 90 kts - ...yeah, i could see that. it's a hurricane after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 seein' as we've all wasted (some more than others..) our time on this thing, let's play a game... i bet i know the next 2 GFS operational model cycles... The 18z will come all the way back and imply national guard hysteria; 00z, gone again... who's with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The core column looks to be tilting as shear increases. Lets wait and see how he looks after Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said: seein' as we've all wasted (some more than others..) our time on this thing, let's play a game... i bet i know the next 2 GFS operational model cycles... The 18z will come all the way back and imply national guard hysteria; 00z, gone again... who's with me! Expand Sure, why not. I wouldn't call this a waste of time though. What else would we be doing? Discussing acorn falls and drought indices? Even if Matt goes out to sea, this is a great exercise in meteorology, and for relative neophytes, a fine learning experience as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 GYX managed to appeal to PF and Ginx in their commentary about Matthew: The GFS has a deeper, sharper trough which picks up Hurricane Matthew and sends it northward. The moisture from Matthew gets dragged northward ahead of the front within the upper trough axis, dropping several inches of rain over New England while keeping thecirculation associated with the storm itself well offshore. As the storm curves northward into the Canadian Maritimes, northwesterly gales drag in enough cold air for upslope snow showers in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Based on the motion from the GOES images, the current NHC track looks to be too northward. It is still moving NW and shows no sign of turning due N. The NHC doesn't show it getting west of 75W until Wednesday. It's already at 74.8W. In fact, sat. shows it west of the W edge of Haiti now, and they have it crossing there Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 9:02 PM, Hoth said: Sure, why not. I wouldn't call this a waste of time though. What else would we be doing? Discussing acorn falls and drought indices? Even if Matt goes out to sea, this is a great exercise in meteorology, and for relative neophytes, a fine learning experience as well. Expand i don't really think so either - it was tongue in cheek ... think commiseration? like no matter what we do, this is all being done TO us - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 9:09 PM, 78Blizzard said: Based on the motion from the GOES images, the current NHC track looks to be too northward. It is still moving NW and shows no sign of turning due N. The NHC doesn't show it getting west of 75W until Wednesday. It's already at 74.8W. In fact, sat. shows it west of the W edge of Haiti now, and they have it crossing there Monday night. Expand looks to be at 75w now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 EPS tracks look a bit more SE US happy than classic SNE strike happy. 3 out of 51 directly strike Cape Cod/Islands....2 of them at day 7 and then 1 a day and half later after a near stall off NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 9:30 PM, Bostonseminole said: looks to be at 75w now.. Expand Should be fun taking a trip, not really a trip but short drive to Daytona Beach when Matthew gets to that LAT. The ocean is going to be in a frenzy. One thing I noticed is the shelf is extremely shallow. Hotels, buildings, million dollar homes built 10-100ft from surfs edge. Should be great for a few snapshots regardless, might not even be able to get to the Inter-coastal but that's the plan "if" the track continues off-shore. A continued NW track I'll stay home and let him come to me. I'm at approx: 29N 81W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 8:50 PM, 78Blizzard said: Heck no, we could be witnessing some history here whereby the models and the NHC haven't been able to pin this one down from day one through day eight now, including the timing, not that anyone expects that of them given the nature of TCs. Expand that's true at all times ... period though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said: that's true at all times ... period though Expand I think I covered that with " not that anyone expects that of them given the nature of TCs." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:19 PM, 78Blizzard said: I think I covered that with " not that anyone expects that of them given the nature of TCs." Expand then why say it in the first place ... okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:20 PM, Typhoon Tip said: then why say it in the first place ... okay - Expand Something bothering you tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:22 PM, 78Blizzard said: Something bothering you tonight? Expand no... i just don't like cheesyiness at any level... you answered back to Nick with none-sense to validate involvement in this thread/topic but i say don't feel guilty in the first place - who cares what they say - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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