powderfreak Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Regardless of the teleconnectors, it's forward speed does matter. You can see what happens in the slower solutions. Obviously teleconnections matter..but it comes down to a few factors. Let's get this to pull an October 2005 with Wilma where backside cold air couples with tropical moisture to produce feet of snow across the Greens and Whites. Killington and Wildcat were like 100% open on a 3-foot natural base in October after that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Ukie is drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Let's get this to pull an October 2005 with Wilma where backside cold air couples with tropical moisture to produce feet of snow across the Greens and Whites. Killington and Wildcat were like 100% open on a 3-foot natural base in October after that system. I remember that. I think Pinkham notch got crushed in that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Sandy did that -... few may recall (or care) but 'feet' of snow fell in WV as Sandy was pummeling NJ shores... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I remember that. I think Pinkham notch got crushed in that too. How the heck did I miss that? Was in VT for college too... Anyway, nice southerly outflow establishing itself on satellite. Perhaps a sign the shear is abating a touch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie is drunk. Every model is all over the place. Who knows which model will be correct lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 the purpose of the tele's is useful for the obvious reason laying down a generally favorable or less than favorable regime for a given area. but Scott's right - the PNA and NAO could be in very favorable numerical phases but a Cane may not even be present in the flow at that time - that comes down timing small scaled aspects. idiosyncrasies in details can vary inside a general -NAO or +PNA ...etc, up, down, left right, yin yang - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Recon finding 135kt winds in NE quad again. Also, 180+ winds off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 GEFS same idea as op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Good stuff in here today. Crazy uncle at it again..... Scott, or John, etc....anyone care to speculate (in the appropriate thread) on possible implications of Matthew on the large scale pattern this fall, and any effect on the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 11am track projection shoots the gap about as well as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 CMC hits New Foundland Congrats, Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Now shear has been introduced into the equation over the Bahmas...where did that come from?? All I had heard was how ripe the envt. was for restrengthening...pretty meh long term intensity projections... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I remember that. I think Pinkham notch got crushed in that too. Yeah they did. Anyone north of like 1,500-2,000ft got destroyed with QPF rich snow. In October though it's always a west side possibility if it gets sucked into a deep trough (Sandy was a snow bomb for WV, like Wilma remnants were up here in 2005). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Now shear has been introduced into the equation over the Bahmas...where did that come from?? All I had heard was how ripe the envt. was for restrengthening...pretty meh long term intensity projections... I didn't think it would be that bad. It should have a nice outflow channel too. Only issue I see is if landmass interaction causes it to never get it's act together...but I don't see that as a big deal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If that phase ever happened about 24-36 hours sooner..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Wow, EURO a bit faster...more ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Things change, as these runs are very fluid, but this 12z run of the euro looks very ominous....may pull a LI express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 This marks the third consecutive run the the euro has trended faster. Could be a NC nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 What is important to me is that regardless of what happens throughout the balance of the run, this looks ominous for the US at hr 120, which is getting within the wheelhouse of the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Trough looks to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Trough looks to miss it. Yea, this looks more like a N Carolina threat on this depiction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 My guess is HAT, then a race between the next trough and crawl up the coast....it would need to be deep enough to not kick it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Gonna miss HAT, but came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Man, check the gradient between that big lakes high and Matthew.....give me that set up in 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna miss HAT, but came west. really close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Lots of rain coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 not sure what the euro is doing after.. seems to be going due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It gets blocked and floats seaward and weakens....ese. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: not sure what the euro is doing after.. seems to be going due east Flow becomes zonal. We boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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