78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 This is very similar to 00z run. If so, going wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Fishy. That's my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Wow.....what a fluid situation. Sorry for the weenie outburst last night.....I get like that after 12 consecutive hours in front of the keyboard. Lost it with the 00z suite. Stil a long shot to go bodily over sne, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks ready to turn right and possibly OTS at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 hours ago, Hoth said: Can we get this on Christmas eve please? The one time we want a cutter, it will hug the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks like 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like 00z last night. That; what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like 00z last night. That's what I said, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Decent consensus for a hard right turn abeam of HAT through dead-center goal posts. That's what I would have bet on when this all began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 waiting for EURO.. then see.. not sold on anything yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 20 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: You miss my point. I don't want to see the plots older than 2 or 3 days, only the recent ones. oh, i see - yeah. it's a cool product but which is which - heh. still, i'd like to see 'em laid out over time, perhaps 2 second delay on each - then, do a trend line at the end and see how the trend line has moved - that would be hugely exposing i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 If that phase ever happened about 24-36 hours sooner..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The slow movement and the trough not being sharp enough when it comes in, should give it a kick. At least my thought anyways. If it were moving faster or sharper trough...both would help. The trend for Matthew has been slow slow slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 still dumps about 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: waiting for EURO.. then see.. not sold on anything yet I'm waiting for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 wicked storm for Hazey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said: I'm waiting for Wednesday. same here.. last nights EURO made it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Certainly its not time yet to go with any OP runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Being removed from SNE changes the way I look at this. Probably stated before I'll always consider myself to be from New England, sort of like can't take the Dirty Dot out. Impressive as Tip pointed out is the consistency of the OP GFS. A hit, graze or OTS, Interest is now warranted not 7 days prior to a legit threat. I'm glued to this (MBY) and will be until it's at least beyond my LAT. I'm thinking the threat is lessening for FL and increasing with each passing run further N. On a side-note daily Temp's are right around 90 with Td's U60's to L70's. Loving it...Pool completed, Tiki Hut, tropical landscaping soon to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 not like the following observation should have a lot usefulness? but this oper. evolution does not really 'appeal' like this is set in stone - i mean ...duh, it isn't anyway, but that looks wayyyy too precarious near NC's lat/lon with that negative tilter pressing through the mid-riff OV like that - wouldn't it be amazing if the NWS/NCEP/NHC/ ...CNN and Twittersphere all had to now cast a Category 4 'cane - ahahhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It may be another 48 hours or so before the models begin to "feel" the drastic changes forecasted in the PNA and NAO, ++, - - , respectively. To me, the meteorological world is upside down if we don't see a very deep long wave trough moving through the CONUS by day 5 with the NAO plummeting and the PNA jumping. To me the concerns are almost squarely on timing versus whether or not the trough will be deep enough to permit Matthew to ride up the coast into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 21 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It may be another 48 hours or so before the models begin to "feel" the drastic changes forecasted in the PNA and NAO, ++, - - , respectively. To me, the meteorological world is upside down if we don't see a very deep long wave trough moving through the CONUS by day 5 with the NAO plummeting and the PNA jumping. To me the concerns are almost squarely on timing versus whether or not the trough will be deep enough to permit Matthew to ride up the coast into SNE. best post probably in the past three pages ... or more - not to credit grab but i've been wondering about the WPAC teleconnector/absorption of converting typhoon "Chuby" Chaba - mainly, it's getting past October 1 and the 'recurve teleconnector' starts ramping up ... no wonder for me that both CDC and CPC agencies have been exploding the PNA. it's hard to feel too confident for me, because the EPO tends to go negative and that part of it is missing. Thing is, that's not really correlated to -NAO, but ... whether that agencies are nailing NAO tele modalities or not, we are in fact seeing surface and mid tropospheric component ridging pearled out from central Canada to SE of NS... We have the deep layer easterlies in place and so that troposphere almost dares the tropics to send something up in that general circulation scheme. "weather" one takes advantage is another story. I think the NAO is the more important tele for 'canes though? seems most literature i've come across, refereed or not, seems to hone the 'block' aspect more than threading the needle (the latter of which is sort of PNA centered...) if nothing else though, it might [intuitively] justify correcting troughs deeper as they pass east of 100 W of middle latitudes of N/A. So... you certainly don't want progressive pancake troughs that want to cannon TC to England at the moment the exceed Hatteras NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If that phase ever happened about 24-36 hours sooner..... Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The most interesting thing I'm sure to most of you is the chance for first snowfalls across the mountains and upslope zones with strong NW flow and CAA behind the system. Any hook and ladder scenario up into the Maritimes might be real fun for some snow chances as it retrogrades a bit. It turns into a blizzard for Quebec. Look at that cold digging in. Flurries would make this whole storm worth it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks like Matthew has made the NNW turn now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Regardless of the teleconnectors, it's forward speed does matter. You can see what happens in the slower solutions. Obviously teleconnections matter..but it comes down to a few factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: The most interesting thing I'm sure to most of you is the chance for first snowfalls across the mountains and upslope zones with strong NW flow and CAA behind the system. Look at that cold digging in. Flurries would make this whole storm worth it lol. close to being a critical disaster.... but, one thing i am noticing is that the west solutions tend to bring a 15 to 20 mbars less deep up over CT, or... a wildly deep system swinging around the long way for a miss. it's like no way will it bring a deep system straight across the bow here - that said, should that solution pan, then we curl in the season's first freeze on the back side - that would be neat with basically zero power anywhere - heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Ukie LF in South Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The teleconnectors goven the whole large scale evolution, but it's the small intracies that are going to dictate the path. Things like, a lobe in the ULL that is moving offshore of New England...ridging in place that develops behind it, A piece of vorticity ahead of the diving trough SE in the plains. These are all small scale features that models will struggle in...but can mean a 200+ mile change in the path of matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z Ukie http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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