40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thing called leaves which neither had but despite what Kev said that high wind field is confined to the immediate coast Ok, that is a great point. Fair enough.......but I also agree that not many are devastated by wind in this solution. Scott, I know the coastline is a different story.....believe me. Not arguing. All I am saying is that this is not 1938 or Carol for anywhere but CC and the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thing called leaves which neither had but despite what Kev said that high wind field is confined to the immediate coast Actually no. That is not corrrct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually no. That is not corrrct For damage you have to be in the coastal plain if a hurricane goes just east of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Oh I'm not arguing anything ray. . Just saying lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually no. That is not corrrct Certainly enough to take trees down inland but it's not ET until North of us on the GFS with the very high winds in EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 i don't know .. .Glory came in weaker than this thing is depicted now and we roared to 60 mph all the way inland in Acton - it's coming like over Boston, sure - but i don't think you are going to drill the pressure to 970mb and NOT get some sort penalty out of that. but hey - details? not worth it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Slower hurts and flatter trough hurts. Those are the two things to watch going forward. I also say to some extent that you need to ULL plaguing us right now, out of here. Let ridging build. 8 days man. Gonna be a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The details at this range are a moot point, Lets just keep Matthew moving up the coast on the models for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 jesus, i just saw a GFS total QPF for this 18z run for this thing and it's about 12" of rain for all over eastern Ma - that's catastrophic flooding no matter what the antecedent conditions are. it just would be - sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i don't know .. .Glory came in weaker than this thing is depicted now and we roared to 60 mph all the way inland in Acton - it's coming like over Boston, sure - but i don't think you are going to drill the pressure to 970mb and NOT get some sort penalty out of that. but hey - details? not worth it - Gloria went west of us. Apples-oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: For damage you have to be in the coastal plain if a hurricane goes just east of the coast. That's not correct . Had good tree and line damage in Vernon, CT from Bob with gusts to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: jesus, i just saw a GFS total QPF for this 18z run for this thing and it's about 12" of rain for all over eastern Ma - that's catastrophic flooding no matter what the antecedent conditions are. it just would be - sorry I mean, that's kind of why I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Slower hurts and flatter trough hurts. Those are the two things to watch going forward. I also say to some extent that you need to ULL plaguing us right now, out of here. Let ridging build. 8 days man. Gonna be a long time. Right....nothing good is coming from the slow trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That's not correct . Had good tree and line damage in Vernon, CT from Bob with gusts to 60 I only had small branches down here. NBD outside of se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's not correct . Had good tree and line damage in Vernon, CT from Bob with gusts to 60 I find that not credible given what I experienced 80 miles further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I find that not credible given what I experienced 80 miles further east. I lived it and recall it vividly but http://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 All that said.. this is all likely moot as the east trend will occur and maybe the maritimes end up with something fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just wanted to add a question/thought. The disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles definitely has a rotation looking at this evenings infrared. If that develops and moves NW wouldn't that cause a weakness in the Atlantic Ridge causing Matthew to move more NE verses NNE? That could be a big wildcard couldn't it be? My unscientific hunch is that Matthew moves so slowly northward late in the week something is going to pull it further offshore. For drought alleviation purposes I wish we had a weakening system moving west to insure we get some beneficial tropical rain. A GFS solution while looking scary with crazy rain amounts could easily trend more east leaving us high and dry yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I lived it and recall it vividly but http://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob I guess maybe being on the hill top benefited you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess maybe being on the hill top benefited you? I didn't live on a hill then. Vernon overall isn't hilly. All of CT east of the river and being south of the pike closer to storm had gusts to at least 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 LOL at the 18z GFS. I'd have a bit of a dilemma if that played out--stay at the Pit for the monsoon or head to Maine for the coastal winds. I daresay the winds on the water will be more exciting than what I'd experience at the Pit in that depiction. Irene's given me enough flood experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Well, strange storm, then....because it was a mundane event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I lived it and recall it vividly but http://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob My wedding reception was in Old Lyme the Saturday after Bob went through. I recall some trees down in NL, but nothing crazy. That said, we were without power for a few days and thought we might need to resort to PB-J sandwiches for the reception. In hindsight, that probably would have been a great money-saver. No bigger wastes of money than weddings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, strange storm, then....because it was a mundane event here. I lived in Brockton at the time and it wasn't that bad there either. I mean there were trees down, but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like all this is akin to discussing ratios on a snowstorm depiction a week out. Kind of a silly exercise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Well the issues have been laid out. There is a reason why its extremely rare to get a TC into New England. This is not a textbook pattern either. October climo is also another hostile factor with troughs acting as kickers unless timed just right. That said, we need to watch the speed, amplitude of trough in Midwest, and ridging to the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 ERC underway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gloria went west of us. Apples-oranges. Not quite. I acknowledged that by saying granted it's coming over Boston. I get that - still I understand atmosphere dynamics you're not going to get the pressure down to 970 without wind penalties sorry you're not it's going right over your head pretty much where you are there. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not quite. I acknowledged that by saying granted it's coming over Boston. I get that - still I understand atmosphere dynamics you're not going to get the pressure down to 970 without wind penalties sorry you're not it's going right over your head pretty much where you are there. Boom High res was 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not quite. I acknowledged that by saying granted it's coming over Boston. I get that - still I understand atmosphere dynamics you're not going to get the pressure down to 970 without wind penalties sorry you're not it's going right over your head pretty much where you are there. Boom Its going over the cape on that run....not over my head. Anyway, Bob was a non-event here, so I think you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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