CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Looks like Matthew peaked too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I still would sell any sig impact to New England. GFS is way too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The Euro and GFS couldn't be more different The one time you hope the GFS is right with something. This will be the time the Euro wins we pray for a Euro outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 06z GFS is already east of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 06z GFS is already east of 00z. Yaman Jamaica miss yaman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 06z GFS is already east of 00z. That's okay with me. In many ways I'd like to experience Major Hurricane conditions. Just as long as it's not in my backyard. "If" Matthew tracks just to the East travelling to Daytona (20 miles E) Beach is a must do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: we pray for a Euro outcome There isn't one person here who wants the Euro. We want a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Not as prolific as 00Z but still a significant impact on the 6Z GFS. Track is a bit further east from the OBX , it looks like it runs near ACK or just off the outer Cape and into East/Central coast of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The east shift begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There isn't one person here who wants the Euro. We want a direct hit We pray for the East turn so no homeowners or businesses suffer any damage or destruction. Sorry I am all set with canes Bring on softly falling snow piled to the first level windows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The SW track is history the past 6hrs has been W with a N wobble thrown in. Crunch time for a W-NW quadrant deterioration. Max intensity achieved. Noticing the frontal boundary has made it just about to my LAT. Td's just to my North are in the 50's, close but no c-i-g-a-r, and washing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: The SW track is history the past 6hrs has been W with a N wobble thrown in. Crunch time for a W-NW quadrant deterioration. Max intensity achieved. Noticing the frontal boundary has made it just about to my LAT. Td's just to my North are in the 50's, close but no c-i-g-a-r, and washing out. shear too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The east shift begins. I'm wondering when they make the GEFS a bit more usable for TCs. Consistently too much clustering near the op solution; doesn't demonstrate realistic spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Looks like it misses the weed paddies of Jamaica entirely and crushes Castro instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: shear too Those Westerlies already slowing Matthew down. I hope the influencing doesn't wash-out too. Many models have a distinct jog to NW late in believability range. Casey swings and misses by 100 miles offshore is okay and think most Floridians agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like it misses the weed paddies of Jamaica entirely and crushes Castro instead Ganja mun... good ganja. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 ULL was more pronounced on the 6z GFS run vs last night. Am actually a little surprised it still hooked up the coast. Thought it would shoot east. Huge difference in the Euro runs. Stalling for the whole run in the Bahamas, vs. blasting Bermuda. Interesting how quickly it breaks down the ridging. Well, just more possibilities in this hazy superposition of possible outcomes. We watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The east shift begins. Inexorably until LF over the 40/70 buoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 As long as this thing moves at a snail's pace in the lower latitudes, this is going to be an interminable 7 days. I'll be in Maine next weekend regardless of whether it hits there. The question is whether I'm spending the time painting or do I piss my wife off by spending time looking out the window the whole time. If things do indeed like there will be something of note up there, I might need to buy a cheap station. I don't think I can spring for another DP2, but I'd like to get something that can wirelessly connect to the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There isn't one person here who wants the Euro. We want a direct hit I don't. This can't stay far enough away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Actually, in some sense the Euro and GFS are converging in the long range. Maine vs Bahamas yesterday, Cape Cod vs Bermuda today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, Colonel Badger said: I don't. This can't stay far enough away from me. The Hybrid Noreaster shown by the GFS at the BM with heavy rain on the NW side with winds in the 40s inland 50s on the immediate coast would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6z GFS yesterday morning actually follows a similar path to the Euro. Euro really wants to develop that low off to the east, which makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Important to keep in mind....that although it may seem we are coming to consensus....we are still 10 days out. Just this morning the trends were OTS. how 'bout now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: how 'bout now? Exactly my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 re Matthew peaked: ..i spoke a bit about this late last evening - to re-iterate, my hunch is that the Cat 5 wind measures immediately leading to the 11 pm advisory may have had an isallobaric acceleration goosing the velocities. The barometric pressure of Matthew is well above the 'more typical' depths we find in truer top tier cyclones. for those that don't know - that's basically wind responding to rapid pressure changes at a faster right than Coriolis balancing - at our latitude the integral requires... oh, 6 to 9 hours (est) for the wind to begin 'bending' according to the 'right-hand rule' so when pressure changes exceed those time differentials the system will ingest wind straight across the isobaric layout. but that means that a system already with momentum will 'pulse' wind to an excited velocity over the top of suggested wind velocity of the balanced flow. Matthew is a perfect candidate to for that type of impulse mass-restoring force. The pressure at its core cleaved out a 45 to 50 mbar change in like 15 hours!! ... This could all plausibly offer some explanation why the wind was 160 mph at a pressure in the lower 940s ... which is some 20 to 25 mbar anomalously shallow for that wind. There is also the possibility that the environmental pressure outside Matthew is unusually high, such that this becomes a debate of relativity - but...20 25 mbars? I mean...we don't have polar high pressure system parked over the Caribbean .. anyway - i suggested then we might see the winds back down a tad once the restoring 'catches up' to the pressure gradient (so to speak) so i'm not surprised that we're at Cat 4 right now. Having said that ... yeah, when RECON gets in there in a couple hours here, they may find a deeper pressure and a higher wind - that would make much of this difficult to prove. ------------- as far as the models ... from where I am sitting, the differences, albeit extreme, are: 1 ...possibly if not probably just an artifact of this being 7 days out before it gets really into 'sit up and take notice' time. as has been hammered, over and over again and is also the epitome of common sense... too many butterflies stirring up the pot given that much time lead. 2 ...i think also having to do with each model camps' native biases. Although corrected substantially over the years, there are still vestiges in each for what used to be pretty gross in their respect late middle and extended tendencies. in the case of the Euro, too much N-S oriented amplitude; in the case of the GFS, just about the opposite, which is too much E-W in almost equal measure. In this case, the GFS seems to be longitudinally quicker with the MW trough, which allows it to get E faster and effectively 'picks up' Matthew before it can escape. That quicker total evolution has a transitive sort of feed-back, too, in that i helps solidify taller heights down stream SE of NS.. so in total, it ends up with a conduit that gives Matthew no other place to go. Contrasting, the Euro is deeper in latitude in the MW with a slightly slower axial velocity with the trough. Not hugely so in either case ...but probably enough. It also is deeper with a trough feature it deposits ESE of NS, that it then retrogrades toward CC - that excites a tug more east earlier in Matthew, then when the trough in the MW does arrive, he's scooting ENE. 3 ... How does one correct for either? ...let me know - I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Differences will be resolved by going through goal posts, rather than striking Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Tip's the last person around using a keyboard to write posts...lol. No one wants a cane up their fanny but then again Kevin was getting all happy where he lost power for 2 weeks while his wife took his crying children to a safe abode during Halloween 2011 event. i would like the hybrid bringing heavy nor'easter like conds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 12Z early returns E of prior. We'll see if it's correct, looking to me would mean a sharp turn N and track toward the NE from his present position to get to model position as soon as 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Its gonna go EURO...prob a goal post shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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