CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My post wasn't directed at the forum...I barely read here anymore. I'm talking about social media outlets (facebook, twitter, etc). You'rw right I do get excited about severe weather events but I don't hype something up and go crazy just b/c some solution shows something crazy. Not to goo too off topic but the events "fail" in many eyes here b/c everyone expects big outbreaks everytime or think when someone mentions severe weather it means big event. There is other relevant data to post and discuss about than a SLP chart which shows some major hit...all talk and discussions seem to always revolve around a SLP and some solution. Never see much about mid-level charts or upper-level charts which are a much more accurate teller of what may transpire. It also has not only been the 18z GFS model run which has shown a less than stellar 500mb pattern...the past several runs have had a pretty meh 500mb look along with other pieces of guidance...but like I told someone the other day, you can't hype mid and upper level charts so they get overlooked. There is more "fun" in learning and expanding knowledge than just getting all gooey over SLP maps. Perhaps if people spent more time understanding pattern types, pattern recognition, etc they wouldn't call bust and get all upset when things don't pan out. I agree and I think most people in here , despite having varying degrees of knowledge, know that as well. I would hope nobody would call this a bust if an 18Z GFS run more than 200 hours away from its projected landfall ends up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS is like dead nuts on 18z, so far....hair weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS is like dead nuts on 18z, so far....hair weaker. it's a tad west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it's a tad west You have it ahead of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 yeah SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 That ridge at h5 in the northeast has bulged westward and strengthened from the 18z run. This could perhaps impact the coast further down from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 can anyone tell what the pressure is? someone posted 915 East of FL .. not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I think its going LF at Cape Fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 00z GFS @ 171 looks like quicker phasing happening with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 One thing is for certain...it has is intensifying off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 looks like hatteras take it a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 @ 180 HRs it is closer to coast compared to the 18z run and quicker phasing occurring. Looks like it is going to pinwheel into NE somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Hit HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 This run may devastate SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 WOW what a run here...Give me a hot dog emoji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2nd landfall around new london Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 then straight north into NH/ME border area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Tremendous pickup in forward speed after Hatteras. That only adds to the problem in delaying the weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Important to keep in mind....that although it may seem we are coming to consensus....we are still 10 days out. Just this morning the trends were OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Highzenberg said: WOW what a run here...Give me a hot dog emoji Seriously neat run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 SE MA / CC wrecked. 80-100mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Well, the drought leery got their wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Positive trends today, But these are finicky animals and we need to watch it over the next few days to see if models can hold the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 interesting trends, but as Ray said.. 7+ days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 HSE to CT in 12 hours.....1.....9....3....8. #1938were****ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Important to keep in mind....that although it may seem we are coming to consensus....we are still 10 days out. Just this morning the trends were OTS. No, we are 7-8 days out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Important to keep in mind....that although it may seem we are coming to consensus....we are still 10 days out. Just this morning the trends were OTS. Aye, we could all very well be back to poo-pooing this into oblivion come 0z tomorrow. Still, at this point it seems pretty reasonable to say that Matthew is a potent system with very high impact potential, and certainly worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Heaviest rains pushed to the Hudson Valley area this run. Will be some massive flooding out there, drought or not, if this run were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, 78Blizzard said: No, we are 7-8 days out now. Mt Washington isn't 6000, its 6289' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 That would satisfy everyone wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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