USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cold cloud tops approaching -80C to -90C in a hot tower on the north side of the circulation center or eye of Matthew. This is significant because it means rapid intensification continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cloud tops between -80C and -85C are surrounding the hurricane now, can't wait for the 2145utc ADT update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 ADT updated, raw T# of 7.1 now, we just need the adjusted t# to increase as well. 0C eye temp. with an average temp in the eye wall of -75C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Looks like a coastal hugger down south on the 18z GFS. About 75 mi further west than 12z run, so far, at hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 18Z GFS is pretty tucked in tight just off SC at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 LOL, a direct hit on James. 961 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 This run should g et James excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, 78Blizzard said: LOL, a direct hit on James. 961 mb Pow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Damn, I don't want a powerful hurricane to destroy homes in my neighborhood or anybody's neighborhood, please go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 What's the full resolution pressure there? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Lol. This should be a fun week. But first lets see if the Euro can get this even remotely close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Good for you James! Second landfall at York Beach at 216. Holy jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 No bad for me, I don't want to lose power for five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Lol. This should be a fun week. But first lets see if the Euro can get this even remotely close to us. The spaghetti charts have been trending further northwest all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 All of Maine will be destroyed in that NE quadrant with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cape Cod likely escapes the worst winds, I will await the data on twisterdata.com to come out first before declaring this a win scenario for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Damn, I don't want a powerful hurricane to destroy homes in my neighborhood or anybody's neighborhood, please go out to sea. Straight out of your novel, bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 100kt winds whistling through the Pru? Pfreak praying for that track this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No bad for me, I don't want to lose power for five days. Lol five days I lost power for 14 with sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 See I don't want to lose power man, I would love to experience a hurricane and give authenticity to my novels, but I would hate to lose power for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, qg_omega said: Lol five days I lost power for 14 with sandy I was gonna say. If that hit 5 days would be hugely optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The spaghetti charts have been trending further northwest all day. Agreed. Would be nice to see the Euro model not burying this thing so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 eye continues to clear out with -80C convective cloud tops present in the western semicircle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Drought cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Agreed. Would be nice to see the Euro model not burying this thing so far south. The Euro data is old now, as hurricanes go, and expect it will get with the program at 00z. I don't think it is one of your better hurricane forecast models, especially at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The Euro data is old now, as hurricanes go, and expect it will get with the program at 00z. I don't think it is one of your better hurricane forecast models, especially at this juncture. The Euro has been very erratic. The further west track and stronger blocking on the 18Z GFS allows that Northern stream energy to phase and capture the system as it becomes Extratropical rather than acting a kicker and booting it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Can't confirm, but another source says new recon found 941mb and 153mph surface wind. Knocking on cat 5 if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Been posting about once per day on Matthew. Todays musings... You guys shouldn't be looking at each model run but the trends. Looking less likely today that the trough will boot it out NE. We are still so far out in fantasy land that anything can still happen so don't discount that at all. Model trends have been west or just stalling it out in the Bahamas waiting for something to get it moving again... If west trend continues could come into Florida and then slowly come north in a much weakened state. The only way I see of New England getting a strong hurricane is if it moving north very quickly. I can't see this doing so and the GFS is overplaying strength if it did get this far north. The crazy rainfall amounts on the GFS are just that, crazy. New England is not going to see 10-15" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Weather channel said same about 941 This is bad,there's trees fill of leaves and with the drought everything's Pretty stressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 This thread is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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